Delays Of “A Year Or More”
Airbus Continues To Affirm Mid-2013 EIS
Suppliers Concerned About Continued Design Changes To Address Excess Weight
Threat Of New WTO Litigation Could Harm Profitability
Around about two years from now, the first Airbus A350-900 will have completed its first flight. That’s the plan for now at least as Airbus continues to aim for the goal of handing over its first example to launch customer Qatar Airways by mid-2013.
With an initial program bill of around $5bn that has now more than tripled to over $17bn, the A350XWB program is experiencing major concerns at both Airbus and partners as continued design changes aimed at stripping out the excessive weight of the centre of the baseline A350-900 proves more difficult than first imagined.
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Critically, and in contrast to the delays seen on the 787, the A350 has consumed much of its program buffer before major components have been fabricated. Where Boeing became desperately unstuck on the 787 due to fastener shortages, travelled work, weakness in the centre wing box and the side of body issue that delayed first flight a year ago, airlines such as Emirates have continued to voice their concern that the A350 program is already beginning to slide before the first airplane has even been constructed.
“For the time being we’re sticking to our delivery schedule, but it’s tense, and we have eaten most of the buffer we had,” said EADS CEO, Louis Gallois.
This isn’t the first time Airbus has acknowledged that buffers have been used up – indeed, the frequency of this remark in 2010 alone, has suppliers stating that some of the requested design changes for the A350-900 are already a “year or more” behind schedule “because Airbus keeps changing its mind on components and materials” leaving some key partners with “excessive inventory of unusable parts” according to several sources on the program.
Suppliers saddled with these parts are struggling to free up enough cash resources to redesign and fabricate new components, leaving Airbus’ already thin engineering teams waiting for new items to be designed and evaluated before tackling other aspects of the A350 design and weight issues.
With Boeing’s patents on the monolithic composite fuselage construction method, Airbus’ composite-panel approach has resulted in a greater number of heavier joins throughout the structure, some of which are being replaced with non-composite fittings, adding to the overall weight of the airplane. Crucially, the focus has been on the centre wing box – one of the areas that hindered the 787′s progress too.
The heavier than planned structure, according to Airbus, is about 2.2 tons overweight – program sources indicate the figure is over three times that amount and the fuel burn delta, which Airbus acknowledges to be 1% higher than envisaged has also risen – this is part of the reason why Airbus refuses to detail a specific operating empty weight as it battles to change the centre section of the wing box to drive weight down before major assembly commences.
“We can either aim to deliver on time and [it will] be overweight or be delayed and get the weight right. The longer we leave this, we’ll be in the throes of ramping up production – there won’t be enough resources to dedicate to that and deal with the weight,” says one supplier.
As EADS looks to finalise yet more aid for the A350XWB program, new concerns are being raised that the United States and Boeing are ready to launch a new, A350-specific complaint to the WTO – a move that would have serious implications for the program – not just from a profitability perspective but one that could derail funding and ultimately the planned entry into service if Airbus is forced to look for more commercial lending sources.
The other near-term problem for EADS’ cash flow is that the company will have to come into compliance by the end of the year in the WTO case DS316 – if and when Airbus pays back monies afforded to the loss-making A380, critical funding for escalating research and development costs for the remainder of the A350XWB program could also be significantly impacted.
While Airbus sticks to its guns about the A350′s service entry prospects on the one hand, with the other it is tacitly admitting that there is little room for manoeuvre – the question is not whether Airbus will announce the expected delay but rather how long they’ll be.
