Having ordered 30 Boeing 777-300ERs, Cathay Pacific is destined to become the biggest operator of the aircraft in the Asia Pacific region. With the latest Request for Proposals (RFP) issued last November, Cathay looks set to order additional big twins for its ambitious expansion.

“We can only confirm that the bit about the airline is evaluating new-generation Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 aircraft,” Cathay Pacific spokeswoman Carolyn Leung said.

Indeed, both the Boeing 787-9 and the A350XWB can fit into Cathay’s worldwide network seamlessly.

The 787-9 shares cockpit commonality with its bigger sister 777-300ER, thereby reducing the cost of pilot training significantly.

Image courtesy of Boeing

Moreover, the 787-9 can very well replace the 11-unit A340-300 and the ever growing A330-300 fleets in one fell swoop. Since the latest range target of 8,150 nm for the 787-9 does not take into account of the prospective block point changes, its range is very likely to increase beyond the original target of 8,500 nm or result in a payload increase, which enables the aircraft to potentially carry more than 300 passengers.

Cathay’s existing A340-300s have two configurations including the one accommodating 243 passengers and another accommodating 283, whereas the A330-300s accommodate 264 and 311 passengers in different configurations.

Therefore the 787-9 can cater for thinner routes in the Cathay network while retaining flight frequencies which formed the backbone of Cathay’s business model as a premium carrier.

However, sources at the Hong Kong-based carrier indicate that the A350-900 is the most likely candidate to be selected.

The A350XWB provides Cathay with more capacity which is much-needed in a rapid expansion despite the carrier’s downsizing of the 747-400 to the 777-300ER.

Although the 747-400 will remain as a core part of Cathay’s long-haul fleet for some time yet, the 777-300ER is widely seen as a “defacto” 747-400 replacement.

More importantly, is the strategic value that an A350XWB order may bring. Cathay has long been retaining a hybrid fleet of both Airbus and Boeing; in doing so, Cathay can maintain its bargaining power over pricing and delivery slots and squeeze the best price and delivery slots from the winning bid.

Given the fact that Cathay has ordered a large quantity of Boeing 777-300ER’s, the A350XWB can enable the carrier to keep maintaining this Airbus/Boeing balance.

What’s more, with the expansion plan gaining steam following the global economic recovery, although still in a fragile state, means Cathay’s future fleet is large enough to accommodate both Airbus and Boeing sub-fleets.

In addition, the Mixed Fleet Flying (MFF) and Cross Crew Qualification (CCQ) between the Airbus A350 and A330-300/A340-300 fleets also reduces the training cost of cockpit crew.

Regardless of which variant that Cathay may order, the A350XWB will unquestionably be a complement to the 777-300ER fleet, rather than a replacement.

The 777-300ER still has superior payload performance when compared to its closest competitor in the A350-1000 variant.

As Tim Clark, chief executive of the biggest 777 customer – Emirates, accurately points out that while the A350-1000 looks great and will cut fuel burn, it is a 10-12 hour aircraft with full payload, “its performance [nonetheless] falls away after that”.

“What matters is what the aircraft will deliver in terms of performance. Performance does not only consist of weight, but also aerodynamics, engine performance, and other parameters. The payload and range are maintained and even improved for the A350-800 with extra 250nm of range and 3 tons extra structural payload keeping full commonality with the basic model the A350-900,” Airbus’ Marcella Muratone noted.

Last but not least, the possibility for Cathay to order additional 777-300ER cannot be overlooked.

A 777-300ER selection provides earlier delivery slots than either the 787-9 and A350XWB while enabling the carrier to launch routes - Chicago is just one of many routes currently on Cathay’s radar screen.

Furthermore, Boeing is considering a Performance Improvement Package (PIP) that will see the 777-300ER’s SFC being reduced by further 4%, potentially reaching a figure as low as the 787-8’s fuel burn.

“Yes, the performance improvement package under study for the 777-300ER includes a further 4 percent improvement, which would potentially reduce fuel burn to 2.6 liters of fuel per passenger per 100 km with nine-abreast economy seating, or even a bit better with ten-abreast economy seating. This data is related to a factory production version of the package,” Boeing’s Bob Saling stated.

In addition, the 777-300ER’s superb revenue cargo volume of 5,191 cu. feet is unrivalled. Revenue cargo volume refers to the cargo space left that enables carriers to carry revenue cargo after passengers’ luggage has been fully loaded.

This is significant since 30% of Cathay Pacific’s total revenues are contributed by carrying cargo.

A point which is also noteworthy is, ordering additional 777-300ERs saves the training cost involved with ordering and installing Full Flight Simulators (FFS), train an initial group of pilots flying a new aircraft instead of deploying them into flying revenue services, ordering spare parts, etc.

With Boeing announcing its decision on the 777X in 2011, the possibility for Cathay putting its acquisition plan on hold and waiting is also real. Nevertheless, the wait won’t be that long.

 

- Daniel Tsang