787-10 Could Be Usurped To Market By Improved 777

787-9 : “Substantial Capability”

Further 777 Orders Seen

Will they? Won’t they? The future of a 787-10 becomes less certain as the 777 once again takes center stage.

With Airbus potentially on the verge of announcing its first delay on the A350XWB program, Boeing CEO Jim McNerney opined that the existing 777-200LR and 777-300ER families could be updated adequately enough to make them attractive alternatives to a double-stretch 787-10 variant.

While a 787-10 would trade range for capacity, improved materials and engine changes to the 777 family could lessen the need for a further stretch of the 787.

“The 787-9′s capability is very good,” McNerney remarked during the first quarter earnings call today.

Images courtesy of Boeing

Data taken from both the two-plus years of delays on the 787-8 as well as flight testing and the recent ultimate load wing test appear to validate Boeing’s decision to stick with the same baseline wing configuration for the stretched 787-9 variant.

In calling the 787-9′s capability as “substantial”, delivery positions for the type appear to be filling up as design freeze approaches and customers look to exercise their options and purchase rights to lock in early deliveries from 2014 onwards.

Delta Airlines is one key 787 customer looking to switch to the bigger 787-9, but with American Airlines yet to finalise a big 100-jet 787-9 order too, getting access to favourable delivery slots is becoming increasingly difficult, as Qantas knows only too well.

With new weight improved 787′s entering the production stream, there will be no shortage of takers for vacant 787-8 slots if Delta Airlines opted to switch or delay its order commitment – McNerney made clear that there was growing demand for slots across the BCA portfolio.

To that end, there is potential for Boeing to reconsider the seat count configuration on the 787-9 if indeed it can surpass the initial range targets envisaged for a proposed 787-10. Equally, by stating that redoing the 777 was “a real option” points to the company wanting to leverage the decision to increase 777 rates with an improved model to not only provide an alternative to the A350XWB family but also to keep costs down on the 787 program by not having to invest in yet another 787 model – profitability on the program could be much higher with the more popular 787-8 and 787-9 models alone given their large backlogs, leaving scope for economies of scale as production and deliveries increase. Further, enhanced 777-200LR’s and 777-300ER’s would provide greater passenger capacity than a 787-10 and with greater range while hauling more cargo. 

Increased capital outlay for the Charleston plant as well as supplier costs in preparation for a ramping up of 787 production rates this year coupled with the attractiveness of updating the 777 family could well mean that a 787-10 may well follow the 787-3 into retirement.

A recent order for 12 777-300ERs, believed to be for Saudi Arabian Airlines, as well as follow up orders from Emirates has laid the charge to the planned increase in production on the 777 family – the question now is whether Boeing takes that a step further to introduce new elements that could perhaps negate the need for an all new 777 replacement for another decade or more.

One existing 777-300ER customer has made no secret that it would like to see a new, composite wing being incorporated, just one of many changes identified in updating the family. Boeing had outlined earlier this year changes to the 777 to cut fuel burn by as much as 4% without any major design or engine changes.

New wings, materials and enhanced engines could further close the fuel burn gap that will exist when the Airbus A350-1000 enters service, although that jet would still carry fewer passengers and freight than the larger 777-300ER and its range target remains a challenge as Airbus grapples with weight issues.