Execution 2009
For Boeing, 2008 may go down as its “annus horribilis“.
On the back of three years of quadruple figure orders, the battle to match the order intake with output that matches its success has been one that has not gone smoothly. After losing the hotly contested, but now deferred KC-X tanker competition to seeing the 787 Dreamliner suffer setbacks to its first flight, last weeks news that legacy airplanes in the 747-8F/I and 777F would also be delayed was probably about as bad as one could imagine.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes President & CEO Scott Carson was not shy to state that the crippling 58-day walkout by the IAM had been “deeply disappointing”.
Image courtesy of Boeing
“Better that Boeing get these two programs right than provide a product that does not meet the customer agenda. Disappointing though the rescheduling of these programs are coming as they do alongside protracted delays in the 787 Dreamliner program we as observers have a tendency to expect too much to be achieved in a too short time period from aircraft development programs.
Boeing has of course not helped in execution and just as it was back in 1968 when it was developing too many programs at one time (737. 747, 727 stretch, and Atlas) so it may be doing once again. Clearly I must also have some concern that in the great cost clear out that took place back in the mid nineties Boeing may have allowed too many skilled development engineers to go. Right or wrong they are paying a heavy price for a situation that is partly of their own doing,” says senior strategist Howard Wheeldon.
So what will 2009 bring?
Not more of the same, that’s for sure.
By allowing the 747-8F/747-8I to slip, 2009 can be dedicated to allowing full engineering and flight test resources to be thrown in the 787’s direction. With the 747-8F already slightly overweight, the company will use the time to push forward its plans to bring this down - given the inherent supplier base and network infrastructure supporting the 747, moving forward towards delivery in late 2010 will give the company extra time to iron out the kinks.
As we know, launch customer Cargolux was “surprised by the length of the delay,” but in hindsight, it will also then take delivery of a much more mature platform for its freight operations.
With capacity cuts taking place across the globe, Lufthansa will not be worried too much that the 747-8I has been delayed - its already had to wait long enough for the A380.
The 737 and 777, like the 747, are well established products.
Boeing tells FleetBuzz Editorial.com that approximately two-thirds of the 777F certification has already been completed. Flight testing and certification should be wrapped up by late Decemeber/early January, paving the way for delivery thereafter.
Image courtesy of Randy’s Journal
Execution on the 787 program is what will be key for 2009.
With key milestones such as power on, gear tests, brake software maturity and wingbox destruction validation already completed, getting the Dreamliner airborne sooner rather than later is critical.
There’s no doubt challenges remain, but if it means Boeing now uses the expertise of its IAM/SPEEA staff to bring back more of the work to stabilise not only the 787-9, but the current 787-8 line which is in need of extra manpower and resources to allow a kick-start in production, thus helping to eat into the record backlog- then so be it.
Airbus’ own A380 had been delayed almost two years and comparisons between that and the 787 emerging are no coincidence, even though the nature of their respective setbacks are very different.
However, taken into context, with oil prices plummeting below $60 a barrel, respite is certainly in order for those carriers that had been hoping to take delivery of 787’s this year.
Perhaps 2008 hasn’t (so far) turned out to be all that bad.
Boeing will be judged on how well in 2009 that it uses the time that it has created for itself and its product portfolio.
Execution, Execution, Execution.
13 comments November 17th, 2008
