As is custom here, it gives me great pleasure to again host another detailed, insightful, reflective and analytical article by Christopher Cook.
Boeing officially launched the new, advanced, highly-efficient and ultra-capable 747-8 family on the 14th November 2005. With a nod of approval from two long-time Boeing customers and access to some of the latest airplane technologies in the world, Boeing successfully launched the first stretched 747 variants and, with it, secured the 747’s dominant presence in the very large airplane market well into the 21st-century.
However, it wasn’t until over a year later, on December 6th 2006, that Boeing finally secured an airline customer order for the passenger version of the -8 family, the 747-8 Intercontinental. Up until then, the 747-8 Freighter had chalked up new customers and sizeable orders, whilst the -8I lagged considerably with only 3 -8Is being sold in the form of VIP models from the Boeing Business Jet division.
In the year between program launch and first airline customer order, the -8I evolved into something quite different than originally planned. In that period of “trade-studies,” the initial -8I went through several enhancements and design changes that ultimately led to the market preferred, higher-capacity and more efficient -8I of today. Indeed, the 747-8F also received design/performance adjustments, but it remained a far more defined airplane from launch than the -8I did initially.
The initial 747-8I was stretched 3.6m compared to the 747-400, allowing for an additional 34 seats to be accommodated in a Boeing ruled three-class configuration. The 74.3m long airplane would have offered between 8% to 9% lower seat per mile costs over the -400, 16% lower fuel burn per seat and a 21% increase in revenue cargo potential. Most importantly, Boeing guaranteed a range of 8,000nm (14,800km) with 450 passengers in a Boeing ruled tri-class configuration.
However, as the months pressed on after the formal -8I launch, the all important first -8I customer order continued to elude Boeing. One significant development that unfolded was that the initial -8I’s range was boosted to 15,380km (8,300nm) from 14,800km (8,000nm) due to better-than-expected efficiencies obtained from the aerodynamically all-new, aft-loaded, super-critical wing design that the new -8 family utilised. As the new wing was also deeper in cross-section than the -400’s, Boeing was able to increase fuel capacity by a further 14,000lts than originally planned on both variants as well.
The 8,300nm range -8I variant attracted interest, most noticeably from Emirates, but other airlines were keen to trade range into payload and to have the -8I optimised to the same length as the -8F at 76.3m long.
At the 2006 Farnborough Airshow, Boeing revealed that there was indeed a mixed consensus from the airlines as to which -8I variant they preferred. The longer -8I variant offered compelling economics and helped differentiate the new 747 further from the 777-300ER, but some airlines were happy with the longer-range -8I.
“The good thing is that six months ago, before we launched the 747-8, we weren’t having those discussions and once we launched we got their attention,” said Randy Tinseth, then the 747-8’s marketing, support and in-service vice-president.
Airlines were clearly keen to tweak the new 747, and this ultimately led to the delay for Boeing in securing a launch order for the -8I. Apart from offering better economics and seating capacity/flexibility over the 74.3m long -8I, the “super-stretched” -8I offered another very attractive attribute; increased commonality with the freighter model.
Boeing had already decided that the -8I and -8F would have the exact same wing (internally, externally and structurally), therefore having the same fuselage length for both variants meant less complex, and thus lower cost, production line. Further, with a standard fuselage length, the market appeal for an eventual -8BCF was significantly boosted, as airplane re-sale and residual value would remain higher.
The “long-awaited” 747-8I launch customer, Lufthansa, even commented on the passenger to freighter conversion prospects of the -8I.
“We could operate the 747-8I for 20 or 30 years and then use them as freighters,” said Lufthansa’s CEO Wolfgang Mayrhuber, adding that “the -8I will retain their value.”
The longer fuselage also significantly boosted the lower cargo hold’s revenue cargo carrying ability. The -8I’s total cargo capacity volume is a healthy 5,705 cubic feet (161.5 cubic meters). Once passenger baggage has been accounted for, the remaining cargo hold capacity – therefore revenue freight potential – is 3,895 cubic feet (110.3 cubic meters).
“We originally believed that the 20% size increase [over the 747-400] for the passenger model was what the market wanted, but some airlines have asked us to look into adopting the 5.6m fuselage stretch from the freighter, and weren’t worried about losing a little range,” said Randy Baseler, then Boeing’s vice-president of marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes at the 2006 Farnborough Airshow.
“Three-class seating would increase to 467 passengers, but range will fall by around 200-300nm [370-560km] to around 8,000nm,” said Baseler at the time, adding, “Whoever stands up first and says ‘we’ll buy the aircraft’ will decide the size when we firm up the programme.”
A few months later Lufthansa launched the airplane, although it nearly was beaten to the post by another potential customer. The longer fuselage length certainly answered many of the airlines’ wishes for a radically improved 747-400. It almost seemed as if it were a ‘no-brainer’ to opt for the 76.3m long -8I.
After several high-profile meetings and marketing forums with various stalwart 747-400 operators, Boeing finally offered a far more customer focused, refined and market preferred 400-seat to 500-seat airplane. On October 16th 2006, Boeing officially adopted the longer fuselage length of 76.3m for the -8I variant; the -8I was now fully optimised.
Ironically, the -8I is essentially a “21st-century version” of the shelved 747-500X proposal. The -500X would’ve flown much farther than today’s -8I, but it wouldn’t have been as economical to operate. The secret to the -500X’s huge range potential lay with its all-new, 40% up-scaled super-critical 777 wing design, therefore allowing for a far greater fuel capacity. Virtually a decade, to the day, since the -500X proposal came within a whisper of being launched at the 1996 Farnborough Airshow (along with the leviathan -600X), Boeing had finally “re-launched” the 747-500X in the form of the -8I, and the results couldn’t have been any better. With a 16% improvement in fuel efficiency compared to the venerable 747-400, as well as 1% lower trip costs, coupled with greatly increased performance abilities and increased weights, the -8I design boasts efficiency levels that are on-par with all-new airplane designs.
Not bad for a derivative airplane!
Whilst a few blue-chip potential -8I customers, such as Emirates, bemoaned Boeing’s decision to opt for the larger -8I variant as it suffered the usual “range-penalty”, it was ultimately the larger -8I that caught the markets’ attention. Even Emirates, after months of public evaluation of the larger -8I, proclaimed the new 747 an “excellent aircraft.”
But, even after Lufthansa’s sizeable launch order for the -8I, Boeing did not secure another major -8I customer until Korean Air ordered 5 units on December 4th, 2009 – almost three years after Lufthansa’s order.
Although Nigerian-based Arik Air signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Boeing for the purchase of four -8Is, and at least two other customers seemed to be poised to order 10 747-8Is each, it was ultimately Boeing Business Jets that kept the steady trickle of -8I orders rolling in for the -8I between Lufthansa’s and Korean Air’s orders.
Armed with encouraging flight-test data from the -8F so far, a recovering global economy and a 747-400 replacement cycle that’s beginning in earnest, Boeing is targeting to sell a number of additional Intercontinentals to new customers in the coming months. With endorsements for the -8I from two major global airlines, Boeing is keen to add additional orders and to help return the 747 program to profitability.
Perhaps Boeing’s decision to increase the production rate of the 747 indicates, like the 777, that further orders are near? Earlier this year, Boeing’s CEO Jim McNerney indicated that Boeing was hopeful of additional orders to be placed in the second half of 2010.
“I think you’re going to see some thaw in this market this year toward the second half of this year, I think you’ll see some [747-8I] orders that are in the midst of discussions right now.”
Whilst McNerney did indicate that the -8F was seeing added interest and that it could lead the ‘order-rejuvenation’ in 2010, the -8I was also re-entering the limelight with many airlines that previously showed little interest and instead ‘hunkered down’ during the recession.
“We’ve kept a lot of passenger discussions warm on [the -8I] side, but no one is buying $250 million machines. We’re hopeful that some things could pop up. We had a nice order at the end of last year from Korean Air to join Lufthansa as launch customer on the passenger side. So while we’ve always had faith in this airplane, the recession has not helped its marketing,” added McNerney.
At Lufthansa’s recent financial results earnings call, Lufthansa’s CFO, Stephan Gemkow, commented that Lufthansa is “committed to take the 747-8I”, adding that he thinks “it’s the most beautiful aircraft which has been designed so far.”
Either way, Boeing’s claim that the 747-8 “is the right size for the large airplane market, lowering risk for airlines in a highly variable operating environment,” would seem appropriate. It remains to be seen whether that market returns sooner rather than later.
Click Image To Enlarge
Christopher Cook
Commercial Pilot, Johannesburg RSA
All Images Courtesy Of Boeing / Newairplane.com
