Now that 2009 is over, the A380 production (or delivery) target for this year comes into focus.
Quite frankly its irrelevant how many units are handed over – the airplane has suffered a string of high profile in-service setbacks (Google!) and the fragility of this behemoths viability in a large airplane marketplace that is disappearing each and every day shows that the decision to adjust production last year serves only to prolong the agonizing (and dwindling) backlog until new orders emerge – if at all.
(Shoot The Dog Part One, Shoot The Dog Part Two)
The latest A380 operator, Air France, is just another airline that joins the long list of embarrassing incidents that have plagued the big Airbus jet.
Image owned/copyright of FleetBuzz Editorial.com
“The trouble is that you can’t replace the aircraft with another one.
That’s the privilege of being big. Nobody can replace you.
Disembarking 400 or more passengers and luggage, arranging transportation to hotels, re-transporting them back to the airport, re-checking them in and then re-embarking the day after – that’s a nightmare,” says one European aerospace analyst.
To be fair, there is nothing out of the ordinary that is grounding A380 flights.
Indeed, the 787, when that enters service (perhaps by the end of this year), will suffer most peoples ridicule the moment the first example goes tech.
Around half of the A380′s customer base has deferred deliveries. With the premium traffic market floating rapidly down the river Styx, John Leahy’s oft-touted “break-even at 65%” load factors are almost cringe-worthy rhetoric completely at odds with the anaemic loads and weak yields the likes of Singapore Airlines and Emirates have – especially on the hub-to-hub routes such as London Heathrow, for which the big bird from Toulouse was designed.
“Even before the current economic crisis, the A380 was clearly over-sized and over-sold. Today, customers are practically falling over themselves to defer their orders,” says Arran Aerospace’s Founder and Chief Consultant , Doug McVitie.
Whatever the goal is for handing over A380′s this year, the reality is that it’ll change anyway (after all, what’s in a number?)
Part of this is down to continued design changes that Airbus is enacting to reduce the operating empty weight. These design alterations, coming in at a significant cost to a supply chain still reeling from huge start up costs and almost no positive cash flow through deliveries means that Airbus is unlikely, if ever, to reach beyond two dozen A380′s being delivered in any one year.
No new orders are on the horizon, costs associated with the late design changes, ongoing customer penalty payments, the diversion of resources away from the A350XWB alongside a review of the entire A380 program underscores what many people have said all along – that the project is on borrowed time.
Far be it for Airbus to cull its fat lady until she has sung her last, the program will continue in “limp mode”.
The 747-8 is probably the last widebody airplane family that will ever benefit from a new engine. The A380 probably won’t get a second lease of life, particularly as ILFC is all but poised to abandon its decade old order for the quad – because the demand for it just doesn’t exist in the numbers Airbus’ marketing department would have us believe. Its post-passenger life value as a converted freighter is non-existent, and no engine maker will sign up to re-engine a relic whose world fleet is akin to that of the MD11 in numbers.
The systemic move to composite airframes, as well as composites and new materials for engine technology will mean that each new generation of airplane will benefit from new engines on a new airframe, not older airframes. Economies of scale will bring technology costs down.
Without a freighter application, the prospects of A380 longevity seem even worse – although you could argue that the cargo market weakness seen today is probably a good enough reason not to produce a freighter with limited airport compatibility.
Most of the costs on the program have already been sunk, killing the unloved, obese and inflexible A380 isn’t an option Airbus will pursue. Like most dogs, it’s been born, have a good innings during passenger operations and when orders are complete, the line will die with a forward loss that makes the A400M shudder too.
Of course, if smart guys like Richard Aboulafia, Doug McVitie and Professor Liebstrom “get it”, it was all but inevitable that the most ardent of A380 factions would eventually concur in its monumental financial failure that EADS delivered in committing to the cash-sapping A380. Second only to calamity in the $40bn (and growing) pain experienced by the A400M.
Mike M, to see you in your ‘holier than thou’ mode and castigate B380 with his supposed “racist” comment, is a bit rich coming from somebody who never ceases to delight in attempting to ridicule posters here, with terms like “Euroboy”, and not to mention your liberal use of four letter words on this forum.
B380′s light hearted and humourous reference was certainly not racist. The only reason you focused on that, is to divert attention away from his reasonal points including those about the troubled 747-8 programme.
Saj, Please allow me to pirate your blog to make some publicity on my latest blog entry which is OFF TOPIC. It’s about the 787.
Here it is: http://wp.me/piMZI-xz
>>>it probably means that you have run out of things to say on the topic.
Not quite. You’re the one make claims about the 747-8 being horrendously overweight with no factual backup. I’m only quiet because I wanted/wait to see your evidence and not just because you “say” so.
>>>Dave_BC
Please explain how you deduce that calling four-letter words or Euroboy is equal to racism? Free speech has its limits and I havent ever crossed the race barrier, so get off your soapbox when this issue doesnt even concern you.
Same goes for you ikkeman – calling Aboulafia “Great Satan”, which Leelaw does so often, is NOT racism – its humor – humor that you’re clearly incapable of understanding.
Back on topic, if thats ok?
Predictions for A380 total deliveries this year? No more than a dozen…
Hi folks not been around for a few days, but nothing unpredictable sofar.
Mike M still is biting the carpet and a A380 is still a disaster that will never be sold, never fly, be cancelled, terminated. Fleetbuzz still being a critical observer to Airbus and a loyal PR reproducer towards Boeing.
I think the A380 will dominate long haul travel for the next decades. BA, LH, AF, SQ, QF, VS, EK, QR and other think so to.
Eat you heart out
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NfAxkZQXWh8
Keesje, the list of airlines there have all deferred A380′s!!
When the 787 and A350 exceed A380 deliveries and enter service, the A380 will be an old technology airplane.
It will not be in service in its fifth decade like the 747!
Much better to have just some deferrals, rather than all those outright cancellations which the 787 is getting.
)
56. Dave_BC | January 8th, 2010 at 17:03
Not sure.
In many cases, “deferrals” only means “deferred cancellations”.
Dave BC, I may be wrong, but most if not all of the 787 cancellations are to do with the customers’ financial position, not the 787 delays or the aircraft itself.
The 787 market is still young and very strong. The same cannot be said of the A380′s situational position.
Airbus had a number of ‘deferred’ A300/A310 deliveries when it finally closed the book – true story – have a look. I believe there five. But for what it’s worth, it doesn’t matter because the A300/A310 was a relatively successful programme – almost as good as the 767.
Taking of notes the irony in the relationship between this blog entry title and this incident involving chemical characters. ‘Sir, do you understand the volatility of the international situation?’ Unfortunately, this serves to underscore why tragically deficient understanding of the Middle East in this case has led to horrendous conflict with dire consequences for both parties. Not that I would have known what to do, because the aftermath proved that Iran was in fact a bigger concern than Iraq. Or is it. (I think it is.)
Anyway, Mo Yahyavi is managing what is amounts to one of the most prestigious aircraft programmes world wide – despite the fact that it and similar aircraft are niche players. And I’m looking forward to its maiden flight soon.
Taking of notes the irony in the relationship between this blog entry title and this incident involving chemical characters. ‘Sir, do you understand the volatility of the international situation?’ Unfortunately, this serves to underscore why tragically deficient understanding of the Middle East in this case has led to horrendous conflict with dire consequences for both parties. Not that I would have known what to do, because the aftermath proved that Iran was in fact a bigger concern than Iraq. Or is it. (I think it is.)
??? relevance please?
Thank you.
Mike, I think I am going to take credit for the first use of the phrase “Potemkinliner” over on a.net before I got booted off forever for saying to a member that the nazis made people into lampshades so it’s not such a great idea to be talking up their military prowess-at least what passed for it before 1943.
53. Mike M | January 8th, 2010 at 14:48
“You’re the one make claims about the 747-8 being horrendously overweight with no factual backup.”
The 748I, and it was the ‘I’ version I was talking about, IS overweight by quite a significant amount. Now you can take that or not, I don’t care, but I will not be providing references to the documents I have or trying to convice you or indeed take lessons from you in the etiquette of comment writing.
46. Paula K | January 8th, 2010 at 05:28
“Boeing staff read this website and I hope they come looking for you.”
Great, I will make sure I have some tea and biscuits ready.
“Shocking.”
It certainly is…. I have run out of tea.
59. Paulo M (Johannesburg, RSA) | January 8th, 2010 at 18:49
“Airbus had a number of ‘deferred’ A300/A310 deliveries when it finally closed the book”
They have cancelled the 5 A310s they had on order from Iraq Airways.
“this incident involving chemical characters”
Which chemical characters are you referring to on this blog? The reference was to COMICAL, completely different thing.
54. keesje | January 8th, 2010 at 15:06
I love the take off… what a beauty.
3 should be delivered in January: 1 today, 1 next Friday, 1 towards the end of the month.
“this incident involving chemical characters”
Which chemical characters are you referring to on this blog? The reference was to COMICAL, completely different thing.
You’re the one who got his mouth washed out with soap, right?