Dubai Air Show
November 9th, 2009
In less than a week, the eleventh Dubai Air Show gets underway.
One thing is for certain - that we will not see the multi-billion dollar deals that captivated the show the last time around, nor will we see deals on the scale that Etihad Airways placed at the Farnborough Air Show last summer either. If anything, the lacklustre mood of this summers Paris Air Show will likely be the theme for Dubai this year.
Yield attrition, oil price instability, financial difficulties, airplane order deferrals, cancellations and everything in between has dominated headlines this year and will be in the mix for a long while yet as airlines struggle for business and battle to stay alive.
Of course, all eyes will be on the incumbent carrier in Dubai, Emirates.
With rumours abound that it may firm up a deal for Airbus A330s and more Airbus A350s, no air show in this city would be complete without Emirates making a splash of some sort.
Image owned/copyright of FleetBuzz Editorial.com
With the focus on the Middle East region, military hardware too will be plying its trade. The C-17 Globemaster has a dark shadow hanging over its future prospects while Boeing aims to secure further international orders to continue its production. The Airbus A400M, still reeling from development pains and costly delays, suffered its first order cancellation from the South African Government will also be looking to show off its progress as EADS aims for its first flight by year end.
In the region, the competition between the swathe of low cost carriers will almost certainly be one the biggest, if not the biggest talking point - particularly as the Middle East populace and those within the GCC move away from the traditional big three Arab carriers and reap the low fare rewards of at least a dozen or more key players ranging from Air Arabia, Jazeera Airways, FlyDubai and others.
Strategic direction, not orders will be the main theme at the show.
Traffic growth for both passenger and freight in the Middle East is still ahead of any other geographic region, the importance of yield and revenues becomes an intrinsic indicator as to whether the regional growth can even serve as a catalyst to a broader market recovery beyond the GCC borders.
If nothing else, the Dubai Air Show stamps its authority as a leading, influential and important event - one that no longer be seen as playing second-fiddle to anyone else.
The region is simply too important to ignore.
Entry Filed under: Air Arabia, Airbus, Airbus A318, Airbus A319, Airbus A321, Airbus A330, Airbus A330-200, Airbus A330-300, Airbus A340, Airbus A340-200, Airbus A340-300, Airbus A340-600, Airbus A350, Airbus A350-1000, Airbus A350-800, Airbus A350-900, Airbus A350XWB, Airbus A380-800, Airbus Global Market Forecast, Boeing, Boeing 737-700, Boeing 737-800, Boeing 737-900ER, Boeing 737NG, Boeing 747, Boeing 747-8 Intercontinental, Boeing 747-8F, Boeing 747-8I, Boeing 767, Boeing 777, Boeing 777-200LR, Boeing 777-300ER, Boeing 777F, Boeing 787, Boeing 787 Dreamliner, Boeing 787-3, Boeing 787-8, Boeing 787-9, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Boeing Current Market Outlook, Dubai Air Show, EADS, FlyDubai, Jazeera Airways
26 Comments Add your own
1. keesje | November 9th, 2009 at 11:33
Agree, maybe some smaller orders for 773ER, A330 (F?, Saudi tankers?), A350 and 737/A320. Maybe CSeries (Qatar, leasing companies).
Airbus will play some damage control on the A400m, probably with first flight announcement.
I think many airlines are sitting on the fence to see how the crisis works out.
Ordering aircraft now can save money. We are looking at delivery positions from 2011, beyond the crisis (hopefully).
Engines manfacturers are very busy, maybe they have some interesting announcements.
2. Tweets that mention &hellip | November 9th, 2009 at 14:55
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by FleetBuzz Editorial, Andy. Andy said: RT @FleetBuzz: Dubai Air Show 2009 Preview http://is.gd/4QBu5 #Aviation [...]
3. Ed | November 9th, 2009 at 15:22
Keesje, I doubt EADS will announce the date of the A-400M first flight. Right now, I think they just have not been able to nail down a date that is up to two momths away. I expect we will see EADs very quite about the A-400M.
While this would be a good forum to announce the long awaited big order from UA, I doubt that will happen, either.
The only airplanes I see being sold in Dubai will be a few B-777s, a few A-330s, and the usual B-737NG and A-32X series orders from the LCCs.
As far as military aircraft orders go, there are only two types that may have a shot at being announced, a few A-330MRTTs and a few to several C-17s. Maybe also a C-130J or two. There is some very long odds on any orders for Typhoons, F-15Es, F-16s, or F/A-18 Super Hornets. No chance for F-15SE orders, yet.
I don’t see South Africa making any announcement on a possible A-400M replacement order, but if it does happen, there are only two possibilities, the C-130J, including the C-130J-30, or the C-17A. There is no hope for a KHI C-X order until Japan changes is laws about selling military equippment overseas.
Emirates will firm up their Airbus orders, but this is hardly news to anyone.
From Boeing, all I see is an update to the B-787 and B-747-8F programs, possible a big announcement like the scheduling of the B-787 first flight, followed within weeks by the B-747-8F first flight.
4. Vero Venia | November 9th, 2009 at 16:08
1. keesje | November 9th, 2009 at 11:33 says “Ordering aircraft now can save money. We are looking at delivery positions from 2011, beyond the crisis (hopefully). ”
Nope.
If I were an airline, I would not order aircraft that will become “obsolete” in only five years. If fuel price continues to go up, then the efficiency difference can be a determining factor for your airline’s survival in the next ten years and beyond.
The only aircraft you can order safely is a 777-300ER or a next-gen aircraft, but those aircraft are sold out until 2015.
The safest way to by aircraft today is to make small incremental orders, if there are available production slots left.
If you’re not in hurry, then it is better to wait for next generation aircraft than to order big fleet of old stuffs.
Airlines which order a big fleet of “old” aircraft today might be making a strategic mistake.
http://verovenia.wordpress.com/2009/11/06/not-so-strategic-part-3/
5. Mike M | November 9th, 2009 at 16:21
Leasing companies will want to place their A320s and 737s ahead of placing orders for the C-series.
The C-series hasn’t had the traction Bombardier thought it would have by now, and Qatars reluctance to order it is evidence enough.
That may change at the show, but Akbar Baker said he’d rather see an new engine on the A320 than order the Bombardier jet.
Other than that, it will be a largely shit air show. Paris was rubbish too, but then thats the financial crisis thats made it this way.
I wonder how many more A380’s Emirates orders…there are noises from within they’ll do a deal for another 10-12 frames of Toulouse’s biggest wench!
6. Leelaw | November 9th, 2009 at 17:14
Speaking of the WhaleBus[t], FI has published a in-depth “exclusive” A380 in-service report: http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/11/09/334396/a380s-stellar-performance-undermined-by-ongoing-technical-issues-operators.html
7. boeing investor | November 9th, 2009 at 18:13
Leelaw, Max Kingsley is notorious for his slant Airbus coverage (and people give this site a hard time for being “pro-Boeing!).
That said, Flight Globals coverage is and has been horrendous and will not get any better.
I mean take a look at this article here:
http://www. flightglobal.com/articles/2009/11/09/334449/dubais-airports-have-growing-ambitions.html
“Al Maktoum International, the seven-runway colossus”
WTF?
http://www.dwc.ae/site/DWC_Elements_DWC_AlMaktoum_International_Airport.html
“The airport will have six parallel runways”
And Flight global is supposed to represent all things aviation?
They need to employ people who have worked in the field, not some pretty typewriting assistant with a big rack and no brains.
8. Francoise | November 9th, 2009 at 18:30
Very nice 777 picture
9. Ed | November 9th, 2009 at 20:11
boeing investor wrote in reply #7;
That said, Flight Globals coverage is and has been horrendous and will not get any better.
I mean take a look at this article here:
http://www. flightglobal.com/articles/2009/11/09/334449/dubais-airports-have-growing-ambitions.html
“Al Maktoum International, the seven-runway colossus”
WTF?
http://www.dwc.ae/site/DWC_Elements_DWC_AlMaktoum_International_Airport.html
“The airport will have six parallel runways”
And Flight global is supposed to represent all things aviation?
FG has long been anti-Boeing and anti-American. Have they forgotten that DFW and ORD already have 7 runways, and DFW is the only approved triple ILS approach airport in the world? Both DFW and DEN are also bigger than the planned Al Maktoum International Airport.
Just look at the FG story on the WhaleBust being able to break the laws of physics by burning less fuel the faster it goes. Does that mean if it flys as fast as the Concorde did, it wouldn’t burn any fuel at all?
10. B380 | November 9th, 2009 at 21:05
3. Ed | November 9th, 2009 at 15:22
“I doubt EADS will announce the date of the A-400M first flight. Right now, I think they just have not been able to nail down a date that is up to two momths away. I expect we will see EADs very quite about the A-400M.”
Well, Ed, prepare for almighty surprise.
11. » Dubai Air Show |&&hellip | November 10th, 2009 at 04:24
[...] the original post: » Dubai Air Show Share with others: These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and [...]
12. 11/10/2009 Update «&hellip | November 10th, 2009 at 05:26
[...] » Dubai Air Show [...]
13. Chris C | November 10th, 2009 at 18:56
Ed,
I think the A380 does indeed burn less fuel at a Mach0.85 cruise than if it were at Mach0.83 as it’s optimised to fly at Mach0.85. The wing will be producing its best Lift/Drag ratio there, I guess, so at Mach0.83 it could well be burning more fuel as there’s probably more induced drag or so.
The 747-400 is optimised for Mach0.855 cruise as its wing is the most efficient at M0.86. If she’s flown at 0.83, it’s more time in the air on a given sector, thus more fuel burn, not to mention not at its best Lift/Drag ration either.
I flown the -400 to Mach0.92 and the fuel burn is very high. So my guess is that if the A380 ventures beyond 0.85, say to its MMO or 0.89, she’ll have a significantly high fuel burn. The -400 is still faster at 0.92 MMO, although some airlines have reduced this to 0.90 for various reasons.
14. Vero Venia | November 10th, 2009 at 21:34
13. Chris C | November 10th, 2009 at 18:56
The Specific Air Range varies as function of Mach number, gross weight, temperature (delta ISA) and altitude. For a given altitude and a given temperature the Specific Air Range varies as function of Mach number and gross weight.
Without any information concerning the conditions of flight (altitude, temperature, gross weight) there is not any mean to confirm that the A380 or any other flying object burns less fuel at M0.85 than at M0.83
See how Sar varies:
http://www.lissys.demon.co.uk/pug/pics/p34.jpg
15. Homer Simpson | November 10th, 2009 at 22:51
Just because you don’t want to believe it, doesn’t mean it isn’t true.
16. Vero Venia | November 11th, 2009 at 12:41
15. Homer Simpson | November 10th, 2009 at 22:51 says “Just because you don’t want to believe it, doesn’t mean it isn’t true.”
Yep.
And I add, “It is not because you want to believe that it becomes a truth”
Sounds like a theological discussion, doesn’t it?
17. Vero Venia | November 11th, 2009 at 12:55
http://www.dancewithshadows.com/flights/save-aviation-fuel.asp
You can’t conclude anything based on the above press article.
As shown by the specific air range charts here below, there is a “sweet speed” where the aircraft burn less fuel. But that speed varies as function of the gross weight (for given temperature and altitude).
http://www.lissys.demon.co.uk/samp1/sar35b.png
18. Homer Simpson | November 22nd, 2009 at 19:41
I’m shocked that nobody mentioned that Ethiopian Airlines firmed up its order for A350s.
It wouldn’t have anything to do with the opinions expressed when they signed an LOI in August would it?
19. Vero Venia | November 22nd, 2009 at 20:47
So they confirmed the order? That’s a good for the A350XWB and Airbus.
What should we think about it beyond the fact that it becomes a firm order?
What does a firm order mean anyway?
This year Boeing lost more than 70 787 firm orders.
Firm orders can be defered or canceled. But that’s not new, isn’t it?
20. Vero Venia | November 22nd, 2009 at 20:49
Erratum:
But that’s not new, is it?
21. Mike M | November 23rd, 2009 at 06:18
>>>I’m shocked that nobody mentioned that Ethiopian Airlines firmed up its order for A350s.
Big deal.
The noise about the LOI is that Airbus announced it as a firm order, when it wasn’t back in August.
Or did that convenient little fact slip your mind?
22. Homer Simpson | November 23rd, 2009 at 16:44
21. Mike M | November 23rd, 2009 at 06:18
Or did that convenient little fact slip your mind?
Most of the noise was coming from the Boeing fanboyz blowing hot air claiming that Ethiopian would never buy the A350. Face it, you were wrong. Go on, man up.
23. Mike M | November 23rd, 2009 at 19:56
>>>Homer Simpson
It was never about Ethiopian “never” buying the A350.
It was about Airbus claiming the LOI as a firm order a few months ago when at that time it was NOT.
There, I have “manned up”.
24. Homer Simpson | November 24th, 2009 at 12:08
23. Mike M | November 23rd, 2009 at 19:56
Nowhere in the PR did the words “firm” or “order” appear in relation to Ethiopian. The PR makes it abundantly clear to anyone who can read that it was an MoU that had been signed. So all the hot air was about one word on a web page, not in the PR.
Maybe those blinded by their hatred of all things Airbus didn’t read beyond the article title?
25. Mike M | November 25th, 2009 at 15:43
I suggest you stop drinking and try reading Homer Simpson because the word “order” does appear in the news release before the order contract became firm.
26. Homer Simpson | November 26th, 2009 at 13:07
25. Mike M | November 25th, 2009 at 15:43
The PR in full:
Ethiopian Airlines, one of the largest and fastest growing airlines in Africa, has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for 12 Airbus A350 XWB aircraft, becoming a new Airbus customer. The airline has selected the A350-900, and will operate the aircraft from their hub in Addis Ababa, linking Africa with Europe, the US and Asia.
“The A350-900, with its high levels of passenger comfort combined with unbeatable economics perfectly fits our future fleet requirements,” said Mr Girma Wake, CEO of Ethiopian Airlines. “The A350-900 will bring increased capacity and range to our rapidly expanding network.”
“We are delighted to welcome Ethiopian Airlines as a new Airbus customer,” said John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating Officer, Customers. “The A350 XWB will shape new levels of efficiency for medium and long haul operations, allowing Ethiopian Airlines to continue its impressive growth.”
The A350 XWB Family is Airbus’ response to widespread market demand for a series of highly efficient medium-capacity long-range wide-body aircraft. With a range of up to 8,300 nm / 15,400 km, it is available in three basic passenger versions.
The A350 XWB has the widest fuselage in its category, offering unprecedented levels of comfort, the lowest operating costs and lowest seat mile cost of any aircraft in this market segment. Powered by two new generation Rolls Royce Trent XWB engines, the A350 XWB Family is designed to confront the challenges of high fuel prices, rising passenger expectations, and environmental constraints.
Firm orders for the A350 XWB now stand at 493 from 31 customers worldwide.
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