New 777 Depends On 787 Success
October 16th, 2009
Until Boeing shows tangible signs of progress on the 787, any notion that a new 777 replacement could be tabled will remain on the backburner for the interim - but talking about it pressures Airbus and its progress on the A350XWB family too, particularly as the new Airbus twinjet guns for both the smaller 787 and bigger 777 families.
Much will be said of 2009 and how Boeing let itself down, time and again – particularly over the flagship 787 Dreamliner program.
The biggest customer for the Boeing 777, and incidentally the only customer thus far to have owned and operated all six variants, Emirates has been vocal for a number of years now about nudging Boeing in the direction of either an updated 777 or an all new replacement.
Before that can happen, Boeing has numerous hurdles it must overcome in the next 2-4 years before it can actively consider what it wants to do with the current 777 family.
Image owned/copyright of FleetBuzz Editorial.com
Part of Boeing’s strategy relates directly to the A350-1000XWB. With Airbus giving no indication about operating empty weight of the airplane, Boeing cannot determine exactly just how much of a competitive threat it could be for a number of reasons:
•A350-1000XWB order book is anaemic – just 75 orders from 4 customers
•A350-1000XWB offers just 11% greater seating than A350-900
•A350-1000XWB cannot haul both freight/passengers over comparable distances/existing airline mission profiles covered by the 777-300ER
•A350-1000XWB is largely weight/range restricted due to lower-thrust rated engines, meaning high gross weight variants are off the table without a new wing and engine
•A350-1000XWB unable to operate at hot/high airports year-round due to weight constraints as fuselage/wing combination are a stretch of smaller model, lower optimisation, unable to grow further
Sources at Emirates are particularly annoyed that since ordering the A350XWB family amid the fanfair of the Dubai Air Show two years ago, little progress has been made on addressing the performance shortfall of the A350-1000 against the 777-300ER - a key marketing objective at Airbus to displace the Boeing jet with something more efficient.
For this reason, Emirates’ executive board are now pushing for an all-new solution to replace the 777-300ER family around a decade from now as they feel that “fuel efficiency is not the only factor in our procurement policy - we have a big freight operation that we need to consider.”
To that end, Boeing’s ongoing saga with the 787 has proven to be a perennial drain on resources across the company.
Engineering resources are stretched (and that’s probably why the 747-8F first flight was delayed, click here for more), the supply chain is nowhere near stabilised, the acquisition of the Charleston site further erodes its cash balance coupled with continuing compensation payments being made to customers for the delays to the 787. Throw on top the 777 rate cut due just eight months from now, revenue and income will become more marginalised – that’s before we factor in the costs that will inevitably be incurred by the new KC-X tanker competition.
The steps Boeing has taken with the 737 and 747-8 families is probably not one that it will take with the 777.
Just as the A350-1000XWB is at the upper end of its market, the 787 cannot grow beyond the 787-9 model without either new wings/engines or a significant range reduction.
General Electric will likely again be a sole-source provider of engines, but the key to getting any new 777 to market depends on where Boeing aims to position it vis-à-vis the 787, A350XWB family and ultimately whether the 747 eventually makes way for a large twinjet at the upper end of its product porfolio.
The one key component that may become the deal-clincher is Boeing’s experience in composite materials for major aero-structures with the 787. Despite the delays to that program, there is no doubt that a new widebody will do away with the extreme outsourcing model, the experience in materials management and modelling after the side-of-body fix will ensure that there is less reason for things to go wrong the next time around.
There is a widespread belief that Airbus’ positioning of the largest A350XWB between the current 777 and 747-8 families leaves it open to losing market share the way the A340 did when the 777 arrived – a bigger, more capable long-range airplane solution.
All of that remains to be seen, however.
While it’s good that customers are indeed talking about replacing the biggest twin-engine airplane family today, the focus for Boeing has to be in restoring faith in the 787. No talk of a “second line” or presuppositions about what Emirates (or anyone else) wants will change the fact that until it flies, Boeing has a long way to go before customers can expect a777 replacement.
They may have been patient thus far, but as history shows, seat count per airplane continues to fall – then the current 777 may well be usurped by the A350 family – the only way Boeing can remain a competitive player is by producing some long overdue results on the 787 to show that it’s still in business and means business.
Entry Filed under: Airbus, Airbus A350, Airbus A350-1000, Airbus A350XWB, Boeing, Boeing 777, Boeing 777-200LR, Boeing 777-300ER, Boeing 787 Dreamliner, Boeing 787-9, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Emirates
45 Comments Add your own
1. Jacobin777 | October 16th, 2009 at 16:48
I have to agree. I’ve also felt that Boeing will wait on the B77W replacement until..
1)More “solid” information on the XWB-1000
2)Boeing gets its “house in order” in terms of productions,etc.
3)Boeing will also needs to get data from the B788 to see if a potential B787-10 is viable. I do believe the B787-10 can be done-even if it might mean some re-winging and/or possible changing the landing gear, etc.
Finally, B777’s largest customer EK, has mentioned ad nauseam that they need something of a B77W in the next few years..be it an update or a new plane.
I think if Boeing can come up with a “B77W-esque” plane which offers 10%-15% more efficiency than the current iteration of the B77W, it will sell phenomenally well.
2. David Parker Brown | October 16th, 2009 at 16:54
I would think (and hope) that Boeing would want to just update the 777. Really, it is still a pretty young jet and design.
With the bad press for the 787, I doubt that Boeing would be wanting to roll out a brand new model anytime soon, until they fix the issues the 8 has had!
3. Tweets that mention &hellip | October 16th, 2009 at 16:56
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by FleetBuzz Editorial, David Parker Brown. David Parker Brown said: I say Boeing needs to just update the 777 - it is still young RT @FleetBuzz New Boeing 777 Depends On 787 Success http://is.gd/4mBdS [...]
4. Paula K | October 16th, 2009 at 17:01
@ David
Problem with just updating the 777 means that it will have a hard time matching the performance and fuel burn of the A350 family.
With oil so volatile, fuel burn will, in my view be a key purchasing aspect - irrespective of how much cargo or how many people are flown.
Boeing has its plate full, but whenever the time comes, the A350 will be so much ahead of the 777, that only a new airplane will suffice.
Emirates is absolutely correct in their seeking a new jet, not just a warmed up microwave meal.
5. boeing investor | October 16th, 2009 at 17:02
The amount of money Boeing has burned in the 787, they will never be forgiven if a new replacement for the 777 suffers the same f**k-ups.
6. robert | October 16th, 2009 at 17:03
If GE can incorporate the GENX improvements into the GE90 engine and boeng can make a few tweaks then a refresh should do for now until the 787 gets into full production. Then think about a new bird. But which will be first the 737 or 777?? New 737 first along with 777refresh makes more sense?
7. Dougloid | October 16th, 2009 at 17:05
The one big difference between the B777 and the Airbus A350 PotemkinLiner, Paula, is that you can get the B777 now at your favorite airplane store. You can also get an exact picture of its performance metrics that isn’t more Airbus vaporware from cloud cuckoo land. You can thus plug those numbers into your system and decide if you’re making money or not.
Real products in a real world-what a great idea.
8. anon | October 16th, 2009 at 17:10
Why the hell should anyone listen to Emirates anyway?
They have their fate aligned with the A350 and A380.
They never had any intention to buy the 787 two years ago, despite Tim Clark’s comments back then. Fact remains that even if Boeing gave Emirates what they wanted, they still wouldnt order it.
Although I suspect that Emirates is just pissy because the shorter fuselage 747-8i wasnt produced for them.
9. Paula K | October 16th, 2009 at 17:14
@Dougloid - LMAO
Not disputing the store purchase, however, we have to remember that the A350 family overall is indeed a big threat to the 777.
Regardless of *how* the sales were achieved, the A350 has a sizeable backlog too.
10. ikkeman | October 16th, 2009 at 18:08
Saj, thank you. Great, balanced article. Thanks
on the Boeing reaction - they’ve updated the 747 by adding a new wing/ updated engine as a reaction to 380.
Why wouldn’t they do the same on the 777. Maybe the wing is as good as it’s gonna get, but new-tech engines and limited structural improvements could improve fuel burn by up to 5%. It’s already in a class of it’s own - Airbus market forecast showed a big gaping hole in the Ab lineup between 380 and 350 filled by 777. Maybe just accept the smaller 777/upper 787 area to the 350-1000, and try to beat the smaller 350’s with 787 improvements (i bet there’s plenty of opportunity there)
11. Vero Venia | October 16th, 2009 at 22:37
I wrote several interconnected posts in my blog that deal with similar subject. You also need to read the discussion below each post.
http://verovenia.wordpress.com/2009/08/26/the-third-movement/
http://verovenia.wordpress.com/2009/08/18/guessing-game/
http://verovenia.wordpress.com/2009/05/18/dreamfleet/
http://verovenia.wordpress.com/2009/07/19/stepping-up-and-down/
12. Alex rodrigus | October 17th, 2009 at 04:48
So what difference do’s it make when they redesign the 777, after all the excusses that they have made about the 787 from the vendors to the IAM. What they should have done is everything they could have to keep Allen Mulally. the Godfather of the 777 .He know’s how to build a great airplane and on time and under budget. Instead we have some bonehead from 3M that has no clue. So what difference will it make if that 787 fly’s this year or next year? Scott Carson the CEO of commercial has retired and who cares what he said because he is gone and that was part of the reason he retired for making those actuation because they knew that it would not get off the ground this year!
13. Ed | October 17th, 2009 at 14:13
Right now, and for the foreseeable future, there is no threat from the A-350 to the B-777. The A-350 in any form is not even a frozen design yet. What is that all about? It is scheduled for its first flight a little over two years from now in the A-350-800 version. The A-350-900 and -1000 versions are even further down the road. They have several engineering programs going on right now, the 4 versions of the A-350, the A-330F and A-330MRTT, the still not complete engineering work on the A-380, and of course the nearly still-born A-400M
Boeing, OTOH, also has a full plate with three versions of the B-787, two of the B-747-8, the new tanker bid (which could include a new version of the B-777), P-8A/I and the Wedgetail.
Both companies face a major engineering problem replacing their narrow body B-737NG and A-32X series airplanes.
Then there is the market both sell airplanes to. Right now, it is just not there, no matter how hard EK pushes both. What airline is going to launch another new airplane, whether an updated B-777, or a replacement?
14. AF Won | October 17th, 2009 at 16:23
8. anon | October 16th, 2009 at 17:10
“Fact remains that even if Boeing gave Emirates what they wanted, they still wouldnt order it.”
Hmm, that explains why they have the largest 777 fleet in the World and have 748Fs on order. It would seem Emirates buys the planes it needs, regardless of who builds them.
15. AF Won | October 17th, 2009 at 16:31
13. Ed | October 17th, 2009 at 14:13
“The A-350 in any form is not even a frozen design yet.”
Wrong.
“It is scheduled for its first flight a little over two years from now in the A-350-800 version. The A-350-900 and -1000 versions are even further down the road.”
Wrong again. The -900 is the first variant to fly in mid-3rd Q 2012. I make that just under 3 years from now.
“the 4 versions of the A-350″
Wrong yet again. 4 versions? -800, -900 & -1000. When I went to school, that counted as 3!
“the A-330F and A-330MRTT, the still not complete engineering work on the A-380″
The A330F is just about to fly, the A330MRTT is in production as is the A380. How much “engineering” do you really think is going on for those programs?
16. Vero Venia | October 17th, 2009 at 17:12
It is indeed very interesting to see how Airbus exposed to the whole world their long term “strategy” with the five members of the A350 family.
For instance I was a little bit surprised by the announcement of the entry into service of the A350-1000. It was announced nine years in advance!
http://www.airbus.com/en/presscentre/pressreleases/pressreleases_items/06_12_01_A350_XWB_go_ahead.html
Nine years is more than one new aircraft development cycle.
The competitor has all the time to analyze the aircraft. It is not surprising at all Boeing wait actively before announcing anything on the 777. Why hurry when you know you have all the time to make money out of your investment?
17. Vero Venia | October 17th, 2009 at 17:15
8. anon | October 16th, 2009 at 17:10
As far as I can see, Emirates can wait another five years or so before getting a firm answer from Boeing about the enhancement or replacement of the 777.
18. Vero Venia | October 17th, 2009 at 19:43
15. AF Won | October 17th, 2009 at 16:31 says, “The -900 is the first variant to fly in mid-3rd Q 2012.”
You should read my post here:
http://verovenia.wordpress.com/2009/09/30/delays/
19. Paulo M (Johannesburg, RSA) | October 18th, 2009 at 01:13
Nice post. Reading it, I thought it might have been Vero Venia. Good to see more people think this way - as can be seen in the links in post 11.
My only issue is this: the backlog of any airplane programme can or can not mean anything. The last time I checked, I learn’t that the 777-300ER was the WEAKEST AIRPLANE LAUNCH EVER BY THE BOEING COMPANY. EVER. Look at it now - oh, yes, Airbus launched the 777-300ER-killer A350-1000X(not so)WB. Oh, one more thing, the A350 programme is still, and continues to be as clear as mud. And if I said it was sh#t, I could get away with it - because nobody can say it will do this and that till it flies. Incidently, same as the 787. And, incidently, same as the A400M.
20. Aotearoa | October 19th, 2009 at 02:44
“15. AF Won | October 17th, 2009 at 16:31
“the 4 versions of the A-350″
Wrong yet again. 4 versions? -800, -900 & -1000. When I went to school, that counted as 3!”
Wasn’t there a 900R model mooted? Also Mate, what’s with the agression? Do you have anger issues?
“19. Paulo M (Johannesburg, RSA) | October 18th, 2009 at 01:13
Airbus launched the 777-300ER-killer” yes, so says Airbus. So far though, zip. …and I’m not the first to be skeptical about this…
21. keesje | October 19th, 2009 at 10:54
Isn’t it Boeing itself and the market thats says Boeing has to do something to counter the A350XWB?
Clearly shows something must be right with the Airbus product right?
22. Vero Venia | October 19th, 2009 at 11:58
21. keesje | October 19th, 2009 at 10:54 says “Isn’t it Boeing itself and the market thats says Boeing has to do something to counter the A350XWB?”
Nope.
The 777 need to be replaced by the end of next decade anyway. The question is how much better the 777 enhancement/replacement needs be, considering the possible position of the A350-1000.
The reality today is that there are not enough data concerning the A350-1000. Nobody knows what the A350-1000 will or will not be. Is the A350-1000 today “specifications” will be kept? Will it be scrapped and replaced by another aircraft? There are many questions without answer.
The market has not said anything. The jury is still out concerning the A350-1000 sales.
That is why speculating about the future of the A350-1000 is not very interesting today. It will become interesting once its “firm” characteristics will be known.
And as I indicated in the links posted in comment number 11, Boeing still has many years before deciding anything about the fate of the 777-300ER.
Again, the 777 will be enhanced or replaced by the end of next decade, there is not any doubt about it, independently of the A350-1000’s development.
23. Mike M | October 19th, 2009 at 14:34
“Clearly shows something must be right with the Airbus product right?”
Really?
After how many years did Airbus propose a 777 rival?
Almost two decades by my count!
24. Ed(the usurpator) | October 19th, 2009 at 17:35
If I were Airbus, I’d quietly wait until we see what becomes of the B 787. If it’s a complete failure (the odds are 50/50, it seems), then why devote so much money so soon to developping a competitor? Better carry on with the A 330, which has a very comfortable backlog and brings in big cash (wait a few months to see new orders come in). If the Dream (?) liner finally takes to the sky and is up to even half of its promises, then AB will have to push development of the A350.
25. Paula K | October 19th, 2009 at 18:41
@Ed(the usupator)
Airbus has no choice but to stick with the A350 programme.
After all the aid its sought and dilly-dallying about whether it would even launch a 787 rival shows that even they knew the A340 would never be a long term, long range platform.
The A350 certainly is - although, as pointed out by the excellent bullet points of this article, the A350-1000 seems to be the lemon in the fruit basket - and thats why Boeing neednt rush to address it.
26. chaser | October 20th, 2009 at 01:59
Is it just that bloggers do not have as much information on the XWB1000 as they would like?
Obviously sufficient data and guarantees have been made for 75 to have been sold.
Big rumour here that Cathay are just about ready to buy also.
27. Airbus | October 20th, 2009 at 05:24
@26
You say 75 “sold” - you have no idea what Airbus did to sell even one.
28. ikkeman | October 20th, 2009 at 06:42
26. chaser | October 20th, 2009 at 01:59
only promise required: you’ll get your deposit back when it doesn’t work out and I’ll give you 0.5% discount on your current purchase
swelling the orderbooks is easy. getting fools to believe an order of a paper airplane is proof of anything beyond marketing is priceless.
I’m just surprised that dispite the chllenge of finding financial backing, only few orders have been cancelled. I Guess I expected Airliners to cut current contracts - even if it does carry some penalty - rahter than park a lot of jets because their capacity grows in a shrinking market.
Have Airbus and Boeing staved off such a rosh out the door by very sharp renogatiation of delivery schedules and payment plans?
Anyone know?
29. Vero Venia | October 20th, 2009 at 07:52
26. chaser | October 20th, 2009 at 01:59 “Obviously sufficient data and guarantees have been made for 75 to have been sold.”
Has anyone any idea of what it will or will not be?
I think even even those working in the A350 program won’t be able to tell you how it will be.
The A350-1000 will enter into service only in 2015. Many things can change between now and then, including the revamp of the A350-1000 concept.
30. Vero Venia | October 20th, 2009 at 08:46
OFF TOPIC
Today we are in October 2009.
I am sure that Airbus and Boeing now know how many airplanes they’re going to deliver in the first half of 2010.
They should also have strong indications about the number of aircraft they’re going to deliver in the second half of 2010.
Will they announce the delivery forecast for 2010 during their respective 3Q09 earning report?
If you have any information about 2010 delivery level please inform us too.
31. Falcon | October 20th, 2009 at 15:28
@VV
Despite what some people try to claim companies do not spend hundreds on millions just for fun. All contracts include specifications. Sure they are minimum specs and a have uncertainty as to the exacts as the plane hasn’t been completed and tested but that is par for the course when you buy something that is being developed.
32. ikkeman | October 20th, 2009 at 17:54
30. Vero Venia | October 20th, 2009 at 08:46
I’m sure both know how many they expect to produce - barring strikes and acts of god
but how many they will deliver…
33. Leelaw | October 20th, 2009 at 18:08
“Despite what some people try to claim companies do not spend hundreds on [sic] millions just for fun.”
Perhaps not for fun, however, I’ve seen more than a few musings in the blogosphere, mostly, though certainly not exclusively, from composite hull “Luddites” and/or diehard “Airbusiers,” that Boeing’s marketing success with the 787 is explained by nothing more than a “herd-like” reaction by simple minded dupes to a Powerpoint presentation, a hammer, and a sample of CFRP skin.
34. Vero Venia | October 20th, 2009 at 18:20
31. Falcon | October 20th, 2009 at 15:28 says “All contracts include specifications. Sure they are minimum specs and a have uncertainty as to the exacts as the plane hasn’t been completed and tested but that is par for the course when you buy something that is being developed.” (emphasis added)
Yep, there are minimum specs for the A350-1000.
The first A350 version had specs too, but the aircraft was later canceled and replaced by the current A350XWB.
Do you know what the A350-1000 will or will not be?
35. Erik Bloodaxe | October 20th, 2009 at 19:24
@ VV #30,
You would think that Boeing and Airbus would know, but just about a week or so ago M. Bregier was speaking about A380 deliverys and was “Hopeful” of meeting their delivery target for this year. This is pretty astounding that Airbus wouldn’t know down to the rivit, which airliners would deliver THIS YEAR, especially with just 3 months left in the year.
36. Falcon | October 20th, 2009 at 21:06
@VV,
I know about as much about the A35A as the A358, A359, 788 and 789. Much more than the so much claimed to fame 78A not to mention the real dream liner - 78B. The later having almost disappeared the last year.
Then of course I have not asked for specs as I have not interest in buying one and thus OEM’s have no reason to provide me with details.
37. keesje | October 20th, 2009 at 23:59
The 777-200 passenger variants have a backlog of about 40. The 787-9 is yrs away.
The also 300 seat A330-300 took over & the 300 seat A350-900 sold great.
Boeing cannot float on the 777-300ER alone.
The A350-1000 specs are on the Airbus site & Airbus tends to meet them.
Maybe Boeing should just wait & see what happens …
38. Aotearoa | October 21st, 2009 at 03:14
@ 26. chaser
“Big rumour here that Cathay are just about ready to buy also.”
http://www.airwaysaviationnews.com/
“There has been an intense speculation recently that Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific is going to place an order for the A350-1000 to replace its A340-300 and 777 fleets. However, this rumor is seriously flawed. Airways Aviation News reports in Hong Kong.” Goes on…
39. Dougloid | October 21st, 2009 at 04:58
Good editorial, Saj. Making promises you fail to keep is how you lose customers-or, more properly in this particular duopoly (because they both did it) is losing customer confidence-that creates a lot of work that you’ll never get paid for.
Aircraft are hellishly complicated-big ones even more so. When the customer doesn’t trust you, that creates problems.
The worst one at Douglas was Japan Air System-regular demands that people on the flight line be fired for pettifogging defalcations. Armani suits. Jerks. I’m surprised they did not insist on flogging the workers.
The only customers worth a crap were Swissair. Their on site people were all master mechanics and not suits-they actually knew what the heck they were talking about.
40. Vero Venia | October 21st, 2009 at 09:46
37. keesje | October 20th, 2009 at 23:59 says “Maybe Boeing should just wait & see what happens …”
Isn’t that exactly what they’re doing right now? They’re waiting actively.
“Actively” means they continue to make sure that the technology will be ready when they need to do something on the 777.
I insist, I think they can wait another five years before announcing the launch of any 777 enhancement or replacement. This does not preclude them to discuss time to time about possible 777 enhancement or replacement. I would call it “guerrilla marketing”, but that’s business as usual.
41. Leelaw | October 21st, 2009 at 12:11
“I insist, I think they can wait another five years before announcing the launch of any 777 enhancement or replacement.”
What doesn’t get discussed much these days is that one of the strategic reasons for the production process and “advanced technologies” adopted/introduced with the 787 program was the longer term goal of reducing the development (design-to-delivery) cycle to a maximum of 36 months for future programs. The learning curve has been exceedingly steep so far, but if they’re able to master the process, assuming their organization remains capable of doing so, they’ll be a formidable competitor going forward.
42. ikkeman | October 21st, 2009 at 13:12
41. Leelaw | October 21st, 2009 at 12:11
that’s a big if - and personally I think working on the basis of an 37 month plan is proof of one of those good intentions with which the nasty road is paved.
If anything, the birthing pains of the 787 should have taught how not to get revolutionary tech to the market.
43. Anon | October 21st, 2009 at 15:29
Keesje
Your numbers mean nothing. The A330 backlog has yet to be delivered.
How many 777’s (all types) are their flying right now?
Plenty.
Just as Boeing is floating the 77W, Airbus is relying on the A330 as its only widebody. The A380 and A340 are dead and the A320 is so low margin it makes the 737 look profitable!
44. Rengab | January 29th, 2010 at 02:09
if the 777ng is at least 3% more seat-mile efficient than 350-1000 then it’s ok to do refresh
but if not, go to a new design if the capex is there
or suffer as the original 350 failure
http://planetalks.blogspot.com/2008/12/777-on-top-of-its-game.html
http://planetalks.blogspot.com/2009/06/competitive-upgrading-of-boeing-777.html
45. Rengab | January 29th, 2010 at 02:12
737rg is needed to compete with a gtf-powered 320 with sharklets
i am always amazed the way 737 has evolved to be able to still compete with the newer 320
http://planetalks.blogspot.com/2009/02/ryanair-planned-400-single-aisle-order.html
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