Mo Yahyavi Talks 747
Rate Increase On 747 Line Dependant On Orders
Performance On Track, Further Improvements On The Cards
747-8 Intercontinental Design Release Over 80% Complete
Just over a week ago I got the opportunity to sit down and have a wide-ranging discussion with 747 VP and General Manager Mo Yahyavi, prior to the news that the 747-8F first flight would be delayed. Excerpts of those talks are detailed below.
A Boeing veteran for over twenty years, Yahyavi came from the P8-A Poseidon program in early 2009 to lead the biggest civilian jet the company has ever produced. Aside from the mutual cultural heritage he and I shared, Yahyavi picked up from where 747 Chief Engineer Michael Teal left off on a previous round of talks, and explained that progress has been laden with challenges but that confidence is riding high when it comes to seeing the airplane finally making its first flight in the very near future.
With the annual Christmas factory shut down coupled with thin flight test resources to cover two potential first flights (of the 747 and 787), pushing back the big quad made the most sense - notwithstanding the financial loss on the program or indeed, the efforts gone into ensuring that the airplane meets and beats its performance parameters.
“There’s been really good progress, as you can see behind you, in the last nine months.
There are 20-day intervals between each airplane in the build process – we have lots of lessons learned from the first airplane, as you can imagine, we transferred those immediately to the build of the second and the third airplanes.
I’m pleased to say that the second and third airplanes are coming together faster and better than expected. Our plan is to install the engines on the second airplane and we have the engines in the factory ready to go.
Our focus is on completing the remaining tests left in the factory on the first airplane which is ground vibration tests (GVT), after that we’ll finish our factory gauntlet tests and the gauntlet tests involve simulating the airplane flying (obviously without the fuel!) to fool the airplane so it thinks its flying to check all the in-flight systems.
We are in the process of completing the factory functional tests which are over 60% complete. So as soon as we finish the GVT and factory gauntlet tests, we’re gonna move the airplane out to paint and to fuel, then we do more (engineering authorisation) testing then we get the engine runs and then we do another flight-line gauntlet test which is again fooling the airplane to think its in flight but with fuel on board.
After that we’ll do taxi tests and then we fly.“
Weight Watchers
One area that was a concern was the extra weight that had crept into the program. As Teal had opined earlier, weight saving efforts are being phased in with each line number moving forward and Yahyavi hopes that by the time the first 747-8 Intercontinental emerges (in BBJ format for a VIP customer), the real work to lower operating empty weight can begin in earnest.
“The weight saving is directly related to the performance of the airplane, we want as light as possible an airplane that we can get. We’ve had a typical weight challenge, its not huge, we have identified around half of that and its being implemented throughout the production system as the design becomes available we’re incorporating into the production line as it comes through.
Our goal and objective is to get all these weight savings incorporated by the time we have the first 747-8 Intercontinental delivery or even before that, which is line [number] 1440 which is around twenty airplanes into production.
We’ve got standalone focussed resources on weight-saving on the airplane in production and we’re making good progress.
On the 747-8 Intercontinental (specifically), we’re meeting our (obligated, contractual) guarantees – there are no issues with weight on our current status – but we’re not gonna stop there. We’re gonna continue reducing the weight to give better performing airplane to our customer. Our goal is to go beyond our guarantees.“
You Can Blame Me!
One of the most contentious, if not outright controversial moves was to use a single engine supplier for the 747-8 program. Derived from the GEnx-1B, the GEnx-2B’s shares around 80% commonality with the former engine. With so much emphasis over the last few years on fuel consumption, efficiency and noice, the decision to go with one engine may prove to be a successful choice - particularly as this strategy has not harmed the likes of the 737 Next Generation or 777-200LR and 777-300ER sales.
“The way we measure our performance is at “airplane level”. Our second 747-8F you see there in the background is our air performance flight test airplane. We’ll measure nautical mile fuel burn on the airplane and it’s a method that’s been used “forever” at Boeing.
We have a very good airplane with a brand new wing design, which is similar to concept and approach to the 787 and is regarded as high performing and we believe our wing design and in general our aero-smoothness and aerodynamic design of the airplane itself gives us forecast data that we’ll meet our (advertised) guarantees and we’ll also do better (than our performance obligations).
Regardless of the status of the (GEnx-2B) engine – on SFC and fuel burn we’ll meet our goals. But we’re not gonna stop there, as you know, we’ll continue with our partner GE and we’ll make sure that they’re plan for engine fuel burn improvements (for the GEnx engines) and they’re on a good schedule on that. I’m aware of the plan and we will encourage them to improve the engine performance, regardless of the airplane performance. We’ll want GE to address their engine performance.
I should also point out that I’m the man responsible for selecting the engines that power the 747-8 family, so you can blame me!“
Future Prospects, Rate Increase Is On The Cards
The lingering question of whether there’ll be any future orders for the 747-8 family was one Yahyavi was expecting and his response to it was succinct. With the 747-8 program currently in a loss position, the pressure to cut costs, improve production and integration processes while at the same time secure new business in a heavily depressed market place is one that Yahyavi is acutely aware of.
Yahyavi however, feels that the cyclical nature of the industry means the inevitable turnaround in fortunes could come faster than some may predict and he says he wants to be poised to captalise on that.
“The 747-400 freighter was the best in its class – I don’t think that it had any competitor.
We’ve built upon the 747-400 and you can see the sales success on the 747-8F. Again, it’s the best in its class and when the freight market gets back to its usual business cycle (after this current downturn); we see the 747-8F as a good strategic move for the company.
Let’s look at the 747-8 Intercontinental. Remember, we have over 400 747-400s that are flying all around the world and it’s a niche market. There’s no airplane competing in that niche market.“
Yahyavi pointed out that with performance enhancements, reduced fuel burn, lower emissions and noise means that when current 747-400 operators come to replace those jets, the 747-8 Intercontinental, he believes, will be their airplane of choice.
Interestingly, Yahyavi notes that Boeing is studying the possibility of increased production rates on the 747-8 line once the model finally enters service in the fourth quarter of next year. Is that a prelude of more orders to come and add to the backlog?
Let’s put it this way, Yahyavi was distinctly upbeat about sales prospects for the 747-8F and 747-8 Intercontinental in the near future and end Lufthansa’s isolation as the only airline with an order for the latter model.
“The 747-8 Intercontinental is an attractive passenger airplane, testimony of that is Lufthansa who’ve ordered this – a highly respected and successful airline and we’re in talks with other airlines that are very much interested in the 747-8 Intercontinental. As the market turns around, you will see some of those 747-400 operators, that they need this sized airplane with the enhanced improvements (green and improved fuel burn, for example) and they’re going to come and order it.
They’re gonna want this airplane.
My worry is how am I going to be able to respond to that increased rate – when the up-tick cycle comes, everyone wants airplanes, so we’ve got to be ready for that.
We’re constantly talking to customers when they want to talk. But yes, I’m very busy these days!
Once we get into the flight test program, plus when the market turns around and demand (for new airplanes) goes up, we’ll see a lot more “activity”.“
Three 747-8F’s will be involved in the 3800-hour flight test program.
First delivery to Cargolux is expected in the fourth quarter of 2010.
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20 comments October 12th, 2009
