I thought the most recent “guidance” from Airbus (which seems to jive with the “production list” linked by Vero Venia) was for 14 deliveries in 2009 (including refurbished former flight-test aircraft MSN 007), with 7 so far this year, and “more than 20,” I assume this means 21-24, in 2010 (including refurbished former flight-test aircraft MSN 002 & 009)?

It will be interesting to see whether projected deliveries for 2010 will indeed hold.

The interesting thing about A380 deliveries is that even today, just 3 months from the end of the year, Bregier was being awfully non-committal about his delivery target of 13 this year. He said that it is still the target and they HOPE to meet it. Now, this year is as far as aircraft manufacture goes… near about over. Airbus should know exactly, to the airframe, what is to deliver this year and what isn’t. It just boggles my mind that Airbus is still being this caggey about an unachievable number of deliveries. They SHOULD just man up, and admit that they won’t even hit 13. I guess this shows a primary example of the difference between European reporting requirements and US law. SOx comes to mind here.

A reader who does not want to be named sent me an email with the link below. He pointed that the aircraft number 47 and 50 are in storage.
He thinks Boeing’s move is to avoid such situation with the 747-8.
http://plane.spottingworld.com/A380_production_list

Then there’s the small matter of the profit destroying $1bn charge.”

The market conditions have not changed since Mr Mo Yahyavi said that it could fly by the end of the year. Correct.

But I can imagine that the management decided that it is not worth the effort to fly the aircraft too soon since the market is still more than bad. However, I agree with you that there has been a clumsy PR action.

Another point is what I would call the “smoothing” of workload between different programs in BCA. Why would you press to certify an aircraft when the market does not need it? Maybe I didn’t mention enough that 2009 air cargo market is really crappy. I don’t think it would recover before 2011. Perhaps Boeing’s management has decided, pragmatically, that the focus should be put on the 787, for which the demand is still very high. They’d better allocate every available resource, financial and human, on this program.

In the third quarter last year, the strike hit hard Boeing 3rd quarter earnings results. The opportunity to put a heavy charge on the 3rd Quarter 2009 is fantastic! Without those charges, Boeing would have to announce an immense increase of revenue and profits between 3Q08 and 3Q09. Now, with those charges the figures are more consistent.

We “know” that 2010 will be another tough year because there are indications that production output must be lowered, and thus aerospace manufacturers’ turnover will go down.

In my opinion, Boeing is right to forward-spread the financial trouble from 2010 to 2009.

Another interesting point I read in Boeing’s press release is the sentence concerning tax.
Quote: “The third-quarter tax benefit related to the 747 charge and the previously announced 787 charge is expected to be approximately 31 percent. The full-year tax benefit for both charges is expected to be approximately 37 percent. Boeing will update its 2009 financial guidance on October 21 when it reports third-quarter results.” (emphasis added)
http://boeing.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=865
Knowing that 2010 won’t be a good year, (thus much lower tax), it is much much better to announce heavy charges today in order to cut the “accounting” income such that the tax level is as low as possible. They can gain around 1 billion dollars using the charges taken in 2009.

41. Boeing Investor | October 7th, 2009 at 21:19
I think it’s futile to try and proof how close the finish line is till after you crossed it - look at 787 and 380. Both were rolled out (or even flying) when the big delays came.
only thing that’s clear is how far away the starting point is, and how much is supposed to be needed to reach the finish line.

42. Sick as a parrot | October 7th, 2009 at 21:29
could we name him an optimist faced with reality?

45. Chris Wallace | October 8th, 2009 at 00:56
agree - plus, you get to keep a toe in the VLA market - keep 380 residual value down, get to still be the builder of the most iconic ailiner in history… if nothing else, it’s the fringe benefits that’ll kepp this program alive.

46. chaser | October 8th, 2009 at 03:24
You’re right - the only derivative part on that bird is hte nose and tail - all the working parts in between are new. that and the certification basis.

A negative return on an investment is better than no return on an investment. Either way you are going to lose money, but better to lose only some of your money (negative return) instead of all your money (no return).

The 90% introduced here is just as bad. As NH said we have no idea how the 90% is measured so how can we use it to judge anything. Then you need to consider the source. Apparently this came from the same source that just a few weeks ago said they would not only have three complete frames ready this year but they would be flying too. We have in writing that the second part isn’t happening so why should we trust the first? Not that it matters.

What matters is that there has been another delay and because it pushes it outside these magical timeline walls we create it was decided the world needed to know. The comment that Boeing will save some money by not using overtime would be the best possible option, some unannounced issue the worst.

The bad news is the 1 BUSD extra charge. I think they announced the program was in forward loss in a earlier conference call so….

Either way the situation is the same as with the A380 – Decide if it is cheaper to continue or to shut it down. As with the A380 I doubt anyone here have the data required to give a definitive answer but my guess is that continuing is cheaper than scrapping.

I also like to state that I don’t think current airplane programs are in trouble because people wear ties.

90% COMPLETED ASSEMBLY

Who gives a flying **** about 50% or whatever other percentage you can pull out of your rectal orifice!

Damn.

But, the current market conditions have not changed since the 748 program manager claimed only recently that 3 (count them) 748s would be flying by the end of the year. Is he incompetent or a liar?

Then there’s the small matter of the profit destroying $1bn charge.