Boeing 787 Schedule Revised
Boeing today announced a revised scheduled for the oft-delayed 787 Dreamliner.
The company has indicated that first flight would occur by the end of the year with first delivery tentatively poised for the fourth quarter of 2010. Based on this timetable and past delays, Boeing has added margin into the flight test program, effectively allowing up to a full 12 months prior to handover of the first example.
Previous flight test estimates for certification were based on an ambitious 8-month certification effort - now that Boeing has added around 25% more buffer into the flight test program (alongside 65% of the airplane already having been FAA-certified), there is optimism that this timetable could well be accomplished.
That Boeing has announced this timetable ahead of the end of the third quarter means that there is a sliver of optimism that this new schedule can indeed be achieved, despite concerns on past statements.
Critically, Boeing confirmed that the program is not in a forward-loss position. Since the last delay announcement in June 2009, speculation about the financial impact of these setbacks seemed to generate more debate than the overall project delays.
ZA002 taxiing
Image courtesy of Tim Dauber
“Having a new schedule sure beats that weird combination of “we know what the problem is” and “we can’t give you a schedule just now.” And the flight test window is longer, which is certainly good news. But we’ve had plenty of experience with this program indicating that problems tend to arrive at the last moment,” Richard Aboulafia tells me.
The first three test 787’s have also been incorporated into R&D costs given that these will not now be refurbished or sold to customers. However, it continued to say that their adjustment as R&D expense now means that the pre-tax charge will have “no impact on the company’s cash outlook going forward” and that the remaining three test airplanes are marketable.
Below is a summary of the webcast detailing the plan ahead for the 787:
Jim McNerney
• Added margin into the program/reduce risk in certification
• No market value for first three test airplanes
• Non-cash charge previously record
• Execution of 787 program has had its challenges
• Remains on track to be a game changer
• Thorough analysis on side of body – local issue, local fix
• High degree of confidence
• Added cushion to flight test program (FTP)
• Running to the same flight test schedule
Scott Carson
• First flight this year with EIS in Q4 2010
• 787-9 EIS pushed back to Q4 2013
• Aiming for 10-per-month rate by late 2013
• Increased the time between first flight and EIS
• Allow extra time to address issues during FTP
• First three test 787’s have limited commercial value due to rework
• Staying engaged with supplier base, discussions continuing
• ZA001, ZA002, ZA003 conform fully with FAA regulations, will be type certified
• Second line to come after reaching 7-per-month
• Conclusion to second line by year end
• Placed hedging with permit to build in S. Carolina
• Evaluating sites on merit, based on costs/schedule
Patrick Shanahan
• Basic architecture of modification remains unchanged from June 2009
• 4 to 5 new fittings, installed on each stringer located on upper wing at side of body attachment location
• Team has developed thorough understanding in loading conditions of the side of body
• Team has incorporated loads into modelling tools and those have been validated
• Straightforward modification
• Paced by limited access to wing box, side of body area access
• Team is eager to get started
• Incorporate modification to static test/ZA001 concurrently
• Modifications on airplanes 1 through 15 at Everett
• Modifications on airplanes 16 onwards done by supply partners
• Excellent progress made – demonstrated by completion of gauntlet, taxi tests
• Maturity of software continues
• “Ready to fly on all accounts”
• Modelling all credible
• Greater fidelity in wing box & side of body
• Always analysing the airplane
James Bell
• 787 has unprecedented demand
• 787 program is not in forward loss position
• Costs will be reclassified for first three test 787’s that have “no market value”
• Customers weren’t interested in taking first 6 airplanes
• Non-cash charge amounting to $2.5bn
• Original assumption that all 6 FTP 787’s would be refurbished/delivered as production units
• Customers shifting to other production units
• Difficult to place first three airplanes due to extensive rework/modifications
• Further charges will be to R&D expense
• Airplanes 4-6 will be sold
• No significant impact due to new schedule
• No significant impact on cash flow
• January 2010, Q409 earnings to give FY10 guidance
• No intention to shift burden of cost to supply partners
• Ramp up to 13-per-month as per prior plan
• No guidance on deliveries for FY2011/12
31 comments August 27th, 2009
