First To Fly?
July 10th, 2009
With just over 5 months before the year is out, the odds on favourite between the 787 Dreamliner and 747-8F to take to the skies first has swung in favour of the big Boeing quad. Having been delayed for a fifth time, the likelihood of any clear targets on when the 787 will now fly remains obscure.
In contrast, and despite the scale-balancing act of juggling workers between it and the 747, the omens look good for the first 747-8F to take to the skies in the fourth quarter this year, ahead of its long awaited rollout tentatively scheduled for this quarter (most probably toward the tail end of it).
July 22 sees Boeing’s second quarter earnings call, with the prospect of little or no guidance for 2010. Critically, with a wing/side-of-body retrofit fix for the 787 still being determined, there’s a high probability that there will be scant information on how things are progressing despite the first model having run through a series of taxiing manoeuvres including a rejected take-off test.
ZA001 Taxiing At KPAE
Image courtesy of Randy’s Journal
Morgan Stanley’s Heidi Wood had alluded pretty swiftly after the delay that first flight may occur in the fourth quarter of this year. “Based on the program’s track-record for continual negative discovery, we don’t see the wisdom in assuming this revelation represents the very last setback,” said Wood.
The challenge, Wood notes, is the predictive modelling that seems to have come “unstuck” on the static airplane leading to the FAA potentially requiring more validation of any new fix that is applied to the 787. The saving grace here is that neither the choice of materials or any other anomaly has cropped up on the static testing - given that the biggest stresses in flight testing centres on the wings, wing box and ancillary components, Boeing’s legacy expertise in developing wings for its other jetliners may actually serve to solve the problem quicker than most imagine.
The prospect of a quick fix is probably not on the agenda - particularly as 787 VP Scott Fancher had opined that the repairs could be carried out “in situ” without an indoor factory trip.
In a twist of engineering fate, it seems the strength in the 747’s longevity will usurp the leap in technological advances the 787 is destined to bring into the air as it gears up for its own flight test program culminating in delivery later next year. It’s a delicate balancing act that Boeing has to cope with. Continual adjustment of resources will undoubtedly directly impact both 787 and 747-8F programs. That in turn points to more risk of further delays for one or even both airplanes.
Critically, the wider market is still heavily depressed, despite what could be a record year for combined deliveries between Airbus and Boeing, driven largely by narrowbodies.
The key to ensuring that engineering and production run as smoothly as possible, as has been the case for the 747 thus far, a six month delay to the 787’s first flight is probably a good thing. Freeing up resources to get the 747-8F flight test program underway relieves factory pressure, leaving Boeing free to then push on with high speed taxi tests and eventually first flight for the 787.
Lest we forget, back in the 1960’s, the 737 was flown, tested and certified in around 8 months. There simply is no reason why with the level of technological advancement today that the 787 cannot emulate that.
While the 747-8F may reach for the skies first, it may yet be delivered at the same time as its 787 counterpart in the third quarter of next year.
Entry Filed under: Boeing, Boeing 747, Boeing 747-8F, Boeing 787, Boeing 787 Dreamliner, Boeing 787-3, Boeing 787-8, Boeing 787-9, Boeing Commercial Airplanes
46 Comments Add your own
1. Jacobin777 | July 10th, 2009 at 16:57
I’m hoping the B787 flies well before the B748. That being said, I do agree there is the possibility the B748 flies before the B787.
2. Mike M | July 10th, 2009 at 17:34
If either fly this year it will be nothing short of a miracle.
3. Jerry1t | July 10th, 2009 at 19:40
Lets hope that miracles do happen and both planes will make it off the tarmac before the year ends.
It is conceiveable without any special intervention!
4. B380 | July 10th, 2009 at 19:52
Hope there will be more programme updates for both the 787 and the 748, on the 22nd of July. Lack of details regarding the current wing/body problem is responsible for all sorts of wild speculation. I hope that this time they will announce a realistic schedule, with none of that ‘compressed flight test’ nonsense. Everyone wants to see both birds in the air! Maybe they will take off one after the other
5. Paula K | July 10th, 2009 at 20:32
@B380
Yes, we’d all like to see a realistic sked.
But to coin a phrase from Great Satan Aboulafia, why would any new sked be any more achieve/believable than the last FIVE?
I am just utterly bewildered that no heads have rolled.
Amazing.
6. Falcon | July 10th, 2009 at 21:33
Paula K,
Why should heads roll? Because you want to see blood or because you think it will help the project?
I have seen many projects becoming way more delayed and expensive than needed because some people wanted blood instead of what is best for the project.
Unless the project will be closer to complete and / or less expensive after kicking out people it is counterproductive to do so.
7. Paula K | July 11th, 2009 at 00:37
@Falcon
Its about accountability.
Ron Woodard did a great job at Boeing, when things got away from him, he was soon out the door. The current Boeing leadership isn’t immune.
8. mikej | July 11th, 2009 at 10:04
Good News…
All the same people who worked on the last 747-400 are still the ones on the 747-8, ie: no huge changes of personel, and almost zero newbies. Everyone there is seasoned and already knows their jobs and are very able to adapt to the new upgraded plane.
Looking inside the 747-8 wings, all the ribs say “Made In USA” on them!!! (I had to do double-take on these when I first noticed as it seemed kinda wierd to see this for once.)
747 Wing-Line is on LN1425 already.
The first 747-8F (LN1420) is in WBJ and looks about midway complete there. LN1421 is right behind it.
The program is on a 20-day cycle (1-per-month) and seems to be holding good on it. But I don’t know when day-1 and day-20 are, so I don’t know when the next line-move should happen.
However in one month it oughta be in FBJ, and in two months it oughta be on it’s wheels in the Final Assembly bay, and if not, then in three months it for sure will be.
Cross our fingers, so far so good…
But after that, 747-8F LN1420 would still need a few months of functional-testing and stuff like that.
So I still think 787 ZA001 might actually win on the “which-one-flies-first” contest because it has a head-start, and I think it will only take about 90 days or less to get it “fixed”— supposedly only internal beef-up parts are needed in a few key places.
But then again, Murphy’s Law has won pretty well on 787 thus far because of… well, we already know the “because of” reasons.
Thats my report for today…
9. Jacobin777 | July 11th, 2009 at 16:07
Thanks so kindly for your valuable input mikej…:)
10. Graphite Epoxy | July 11th, 2009 at 19:35
The Blogger/Analyst/Journalist triangle seems to be slowly waking up to the fact that Boeing’s troubles are in bulk due to it’s poor leadership and and pursuit of profits at the expense of quality, innovation, and technical and manufacturing excellence.
Aboulafia and Ostrower have awakend, fleetbuzz seems to be rubbing sleepy eyes, and Hamilton is starting to ask negative questions in his sleep.
Only Uresh Sheth Seems to remain all Boeing fanboy, all the time.
Next to fall will probably be Boeing booster and union hater John Nance.
Fleetbuzz, the calls from Boeing PR offering you guys free trips and other swag ought to start any minute now.
11. Paula K | July 11th, 2009 at 21:22
Graphite is absolutely correct when he says its down to poor leadership, from the BCA CEO downwards.
12. Ed | July 11th, 2009 at 21:56
Graphite Epoxy
When will I fall?
I still like comparing the A-380 program to the B-747-8F/I, and the B-787 program to the A-400M.
Which will fly first the B-787 or the A-400M? That should be the question asked.
13. ikkeman | July 11th, 2009 at 23:40
my money is on the 747… but that’s just my 0.02$
14. Paula K | July 12th, 2009 at 00:21
BTW Graphite, dont include Hamilton in your list there. Replace him with someone like Doug McVitie.
Hamilton’s wannabe-bipartisan “blog-o-shit” nonsense is lame given his continual TV invective against Boeing.
The guy is a two-faced fool.
Aboulafia is the main man.
15. chaser | July 12th, 2009 at 01:32
Hard to say if blood letting at this stage would be anything but counter-productive even though the acceptance of some level of responsibility would be refreshing.
Still with McNerney taking $1.25 million home every month what have morals got to do with it?
To be fair, I believe a CEO could only lose the job through a vote of no confidence as there is no-one other than himself to fire the bullet.
16. boeing investor | July 12th, 2009 at 03:00
I agree with Ikkeman, 747 to fly first.
17. Francoise | July 12th, 2009 at 07:23
Boeing is a dead company.
Vive La France and watch both 787 and 747 be delayed again!
18. B380 | July 12th, 2009 at 09:44
14. Paula K | July 12th, 2009 at 00:21
Doug McVitie, never asked any sort of questions of the 787, even at this stage. You know well that the only thing on his agenda is Airbus, Boeing can do no wrong.
“Aboulafia is the main man.” - *cough*cough*, yeah right.
19. ikkeman | July 12th, 2009 at 09:46
17. Francoise | July 12th, 2009 at 07:23
that wasn’t the question. whether delayed or no - which will fly first?
20. Paula K | July 12th, 2009 at 10:09
@B380
If in your view Aboulafia is not suitable, who would you nominate as seasoned?
21. Francoise | July 12th, 2009 at 10:23
Who cares, the A400m will fly first mssr ikkeman!
22. B380 | July 12th, 2009 at 12:47
Paula, we’ll see after Boeing announce their next schedule.
23. Edouard | July 12th, 2009 at 13:31
Ed 12: if comparing tomatoes and cucumbers makes you feel better, so be it!!!
24. Arch | July 13th, 2009 at 11:34
The 787 is riddled with major design flaws that can’t be just remidied by last minute “fixes” like so many hope. The delam at just 130% UL is nothing short of a disaster and likely will require a complete redesign of the wing and wingbox in order to avoid the stress built up migratng to the next weakest point further out on the wing.
I don’t expect the 787 to ever be certified since Boeing has relied so heavily on simulation which now has been shown to not even come close to reality. The FAA has no choice but to throw out all of Boeing’s certification data that is based on simulations.
25. Dougloid | July 13th, 2009 at 14:40
I don’t expect the 787 to ever be certified since Boeing has relied so heavily on simulation which now has been shown to not even come close to reality. The FAA has no choice but to throw out all of Boeing’s certification data that is based on simulations.
And you know all this because……
26. boeing investor | July 13th, 2009 at 15:27
“likely will require a complete redesign of the wing and wingbox in order to avoid the stress built up”
No mention of any wingbox redesign by Boeing - is what you say based on fact, hearsay or just your two cents?
27. Erik Bloodaxe | July 13th, 2009 at 16:26
Paula, actually when you look at the disasters on the IDS side as well as the fiasco with the 787, it’s pretty clear that McNerney needs to be gone. He’s been an utter failure as an Aerospace CEO, he should have stuck to PostIt notes and glue. Your assessment of Scott Hamilton is spot on. That POS is so anti-Boeing, you can see his hate just burn him up when he speaks. All his faux concern over outsourcing is just window dressing for some inherent hatered of Boeing. I haven’t been able to understand why. There must be some kind of personal reason for his bile.
28. JerryF | July 13th, 2009 at 16:27
Here we go again…the know it alls vs the know nothings.
It would be interesting to keep a scorecard to see the consistency of negative comments. I think one commenter has categorized several contributors already.
We are all awaiting some news on the nature of the problem and the schedule of a fix. Lets see if it means cancelling all FAA certifications and redesigning the wing ad firing the entire top tier of management vs a reasonable solution that enables the appropriate reinforcement and flight in the near future.
If all the comments served represented management, you can understand how difficult it is to coordinate!
29. Lefty | July 14th, 2009 at 03:16
mikej thanks for the info on the -8 status. No process is a substitue for experienced workers and it’s great to hear the people working on this program are from the -400.
Any target date for First Flight? I know it’s planned for Q4 but wonder if early, miod or late Q4???
30. B380 | July 14th, 2009 at 19:40
14. Paula K | July 12th, 2009 at 00:21
“Aboulafia is the main man.”
Paula, you might be right… Interesting monthly letter to his flock.
http://www.richardaboulafia.com/shownote.asp?id=295
31. Erik Bloodaxe | July 14th, 2009 at 19:54
Yes, his letter this month is rather interesting, and very well written.
So Fanboi, are you now going to praise him, or is he still your personal satan?
32. B380 | July 14th, 2009 at 21:55
31. Erik Bloodaxe | July 14th, 2009 at 19:54
Oh Dear Lord….
Eric, Eric, why would you ask a question, which makes you sound short of intellect? In the future, you should phrase it in a way which deserves an answer…
If you read it carefully, he is not saying anything ground breaking, although certainly, I am surprised by the tone. Ignoring the management problems of the 787 would make him look even more of a fool. Flightblogger, did a nice piece titled “It’s time for Boeing to talk. To itself.”. This in fact is very similar in a way that it is also asking the same questions of the management role in this mess. I am not familiar with the details of the MD merger, the mentality and the personnel, who joined the Boeing board but, from the letter, it looks like it is all their fault, devoting a whole paragraph showing what a failure MD was. So the answer is clear, it is MD’s fault.
Then comes his trademark, ‘Let’s have another bash at the A380′, he is really straining himself to point yet again, what an ‘irrelevant’ plane it is. Come on Dick, you have only said it a million times before.
“he still your personal satan?” He is not my personal and he is not a Satan.
33. ikkeman | July 15th, 2009 at 07:38
31. Erik Bloodaxe | July 14th, 2009 at 19:54
the enemy of my enemy is my enemies enemy…
Though I do not consider myselft a fanboi, Boeing as my enemy or RA as anything other than a modern soothsayer
34. ikkeman | July 15th, 2009 at 08:50
sorry, previous post in the wrong thread - look at the WTO for a pearl by Paulo
35. mikej | July 15th, 2009 at 09:58
For 29 etc, they tell me September for the rollout and October nominal first flight 747-8F LN1420… exact day? they won’t say. There will likely be a news announcement for Final Body Join, Final Assembly, Rollout and First Flight (I’m sure any delays will be announced too).
And LN 1421 and LN 1422 each a month after.
So it conceivable that 747 might win the first-to-fly contest… But it too has a bunch of totally new systems and components, and twice the engines and electrical… and the same higher-up exec level BA managers as the 787 has, so who knows if it will be on time or delayed more too…
But the BA execs are really really really trying to make 747-8 NOT a failure like the 787 so far is.
36. Erik Bloodaxe | July 15th, 2009 at 16:53
Haha… well Ikke, the funny thing is so many Fanbois like B380 and Keesje just can’t accept when someone has an opinon that contradicts their preconceived notions of what little box that person fits into. They must, absolutely MUST, demonize anyone who points out any sort of character flaw in their beloved Airbus, because in their addled minds Airbus can do no wrong. Everything is either black or white, good (all things Airbus) or Evil (anything Boeing). The reality of the situation is they are just companies. At the current time both are poorly run companies, full of managers with nothing but monumental FAILURE scrawled across their foreheads.
37. B380 | July 15th, 2009 at 23:06
36. Erik Bloodaxe | July 15th, 2009 at 16:53
You know Erik, there is an even funnier thing. I have never attacked Boeing or claimed they can do no wrong, or Airbus does everything right, unlike you, constantly having a go at Airbus. To get a ‘Fanboi’ badge all I did was disagree with you. I really think you need to calm down because you start reminding me of Douglas McVitie… hot air and no substance. Just accept it, people may have a different point of view to yours.
I challenge you to find a post where I painted “Everything is either black or white, good (all things Airbus) or Evil (anything Boeing)”.
38. chaser | July 16th, 2009 at 02:39
At the current time both are poorly run companies, full of managers with nothing but monumental FAILURE scrawled across their foreheads.
IN VERY LARGE LETTERS
39. ikkeman | July 16th, 2009 at 06:19
38. chaser | July 16th, 2009 at 02:39
I’d very much like to agree, but I cannot believe both companies would attract the same style manager.
might it not be something inherent in the way business is done in the west. It’s not even limited to aerospace, all large engineering jobs take longer and cost more.
could it be that our way of demanding “fixed” budgets and schedule before a job starts is inherently flawed? How could any manager estimate the time it takes to complete correctly when a significant percentage of the hours must be spend on unforeseen events and therefore cannot be fixed.
40. Erik Bloodaxe | July 16th, 2009 at 20:35
B380 contraposto, find me an example of you ever talking bad about Airbus, or good about Boeing.
I’ve been equally disparriging of both. The fact that both are currently monumental failures of managment is not just my opinion, but verifiable FACT. From A380 petty arguments that turned out a defective product, to insider trading, to A400M failure on the Airbus side. To “Potemkin” roll outs, multiple delays, idiotic selection of “partners”, to incompetent managers being promoted rather than fired, to out right lies and/or incompetence at the most recent Paris air show for Boeing… neither company is doing very well. Yet, you never, ever speak ill of your beloved Airbus. Odd that.
41. Erik Bloodaxe | July 16th, 2009 at 20:40
one more thing, the reason why I’m not fond of Airbus? Mainly because they are by and large a bunch of crooks. The insider trading case is very telling. The inspectors found evidence of over 1500 middle and upper managers engaging in insider trading. That is not just “a few bad apples”, that is the majority of Airbus managers. Had Europe any kind of actual laws with teeth in them, rather than a wink and a nod system Airbus would be out of business. Had any American company been found to be so monumentally corrupt, it would, but see that’s the difference between an American company and a Euro Jobs program company. And people wonder why EADS will never list in the USA. LOL.
42. B380 | July 16th, 2009 at 22:33
40. Erik Bloodaxe | July 16th, 2009 at 20:35
“Yet, you never, ever speak ill of your beloved Airbus”
There is no need to speak ill, one can express an opinion and I expressed my opinion on many occasions. The fact is I do not express exactly the same opinion as you. But for your information I will say (please refer to this in the future):
A400M - is a disaster and I do not deny it. Only God knows what will happen from this day on.
A380 - I have a different opinion to you and it is that it’s too early to speak of its demise yet. The 200 orders it has gathered is low but it has only entered service less than 2 years ago. A lot of airlines are waiting to see how it will perform and for the traffic to pick up. The CATIA mess was indeed a royal screw up but it has delivered on performance guarantee at EIS, which is what many predicted it wouldn’t. Plenty of more work ahead, weight and performance improvement. I can tell you much more is ahead. But of course we disagree on that.
A350 - I had said that, for me, the strongest model they have is the -900. -800 will turn out to be weak against the B789, I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets binned. -1000 is wait and see, many unknowns yet.
787 - I am a fan of it. It looks good, it sounds good and it has a good business case on paper. The execution of the programme was poor and it is a pity for the engineers who worked and continue to work on it. As I said in the reply 4, everyone, including me want to see it in the air.
Now we come on to this…
41. Erik Bloodaxe | July 16th, 2009 at 20:40
“The inspectors found evidence of over 1500 middle and upper managers engaging in insider trading.”
I would like to read about that.
“that is the majority of Airbus managers.”
So how many ‘middle managers’ Airbus has? You have the figures?
“… Airbus would be out of business”
Another wishful thinking.
“… Euro Jobs program company”
Very popular slogan, of course. One does ignore the financial performance of the company of course but who cares, right?
“I’m not fond of Airbus”
I guessed that but at least you put it in a polite manner.
From the WTO topic:
64. Erik Bloodaxe | July 7th, 2009 at 17:02
“All the while exporting British (NOT English) jobs to Germany and Spain.”
Can you show an example of that?
43. rob | July 17th, 2009 at 07:38
http:// leehamnews.wordpress.com/2009/07/16/787-first-flight/#comment-1363
Check it out
Boeing’s
“working together”
finally realised!
44. Erik Bloodaxe | July 17th, 2009 at 17:57
B380 As I said a long time a go “Google is your friend”. Type in Airbus Massive Insider Trading. Read away. The AMF only went after the top 17, letting the rest get away with being crooks.
You see the difference that I pointed out is that in the USA we have actual laws, with actual teeth to prevent this sort of thing, and actually PUNISH people who engage in insider trading. As opposed to Europe where it’s wink and a nod, maybe a slap on the wrist. Use the Google again for Sarbanes Oxly and educate yourself.
As for British jobs being outsourced to Spain and Germany… try wing skins on both A400M and A350. Traditional British workshare, given to the Spanish and Germans. Sux to be a Brit in Airbus. They are living on borrowed time. Eventually, over time all the UK workshare will be slowly transferred to the other “partners” or given to the Chinese like is happening on the A320 wings.
45. B380 | July 18th, 2009 at 00:04
“Type in Airbus Massive Insider Trading. Read away.”
I think you should do some reading first.
“As for British jobs being outsourced to Spain and Germany”
Work share moves around, within Airbus.
“Sux to be a Brit in Airbus.”
Do you feel the same sympathy towards Boeing employees, whose company outsourced 90% of the 787?
“UK workshare will be slowly transferred to the other “partners”
Now that is ironic.
46. mikej | July 18th, 2009 at 10:51
Just to confirm blogger 24…
yes, 787 is having delamination problems and a host of soon-to-crop-up “new” delays (but which aren’t new to big-B but they’re trying desperately to resolve without having to announce more delays). All are from the static test model on-the-rack.
The Big-B idiots who ran the early 787 program relied way too much on computer-simulations, instead of hard evidence. And in the process “gave-away” and “lost” much hard-learned knowledge regarding aircraft stresses and fatigue loads (to the lowest bidder no less) and let the “partner-company” design how they thought best. By doing this, big-B lost and now has to re-learn what was already known once before they gave it away. Why did they do this?
I ask some managers “how did they ever sell so many 787s before they ever built one that flies?” most common answer I get is “smoke and mirrors”. I pray and hope my “787 swindle theory” is wrong, but how could a reputible longstanding company make so many blatantly wrong errors in judgement?
And it was MD’s Harry Stoncipher and many other MD managers overseeing intial 787 start up… and he hated Boeing with a passion (I probalby shouldn’t even go there).
Back to this articles topic: It is well known throughout many organizations at big-B, that the 747-8F will very likely fly first. And that program IS determined to win this contest.
ps: 747-8F LN1420 is scheduled to start loading in Final Body Join soon.
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