First To Fly?
With just over 5 months before the year is out, the odds on favourite between the 787 Dreamliner and 747-8F to take to the skies first has swung in favour of the big Boeing quad. Having been delayed for a fifth time, the likelihood of any clear targets on when the 787 will now fly remains obscure.
In contrast, and despite the scale-balancing act of juggling workers between it and the 747, the omens look good for the first 747-8F to take to the skies in the fourth quarter this year, ahead of its long awaited rollout tentatively scheduled for this quarter (most probably toward the tail end of it).
July 22 sees Boeing’s second quarter earnings call, with the prospect of little or no guidance for 2010. Critically, with a wing/side-of-body retrofit fix for the 787 still being determined, there’s a high probability that there will be scant information on how things are progressing despite the first model having run through a series of taxiing manoeuvres including a rejected take-off test.
ZA001 Taxiing At KPAE
Image courtesy of Randy’s Journal
Morgan Stanley’s Heidi Wood had alluded pretty swiftly after the delay that first flight may occur in the fourth quarter of this year. “Based on the program’s track-record for continual negative discovery, we don’t see the wisdom in assuming this revelation represents the very last setback,” said Wood.
The challenge, Wood notes, is the predictive modelling that seems to have come “unstuck” on the static airplane leading to the FAA potentially requiring more validation of any new fix that is applied to the 787. The saving grace here is that neither the choice of materials or any other anomaly has cropped up on the static testing - given that the biggest stresses in flight testing centres on the wings, wing box and ancillary components, Boeing’s legacy expertise in developing wings for its other jetliners may actually serve to solve the problem quicker than most imagine.
The prospect of a quick fix is probably not on the agenda - particularly as 787 VP Scott Fancher had opined that the repairs could be carried out “in situ” without an indoor factory trip.
In a twist of engineering fate, it seems the strength in the 747’s longevity will usurp the leap in technological advances the 787 is destined to bring into the air as it gears up for its own flight test program culminating in delivery later next year. It’s a delicate balancing act that Boeing has to cope with. Continual adjustment of resources will undoubtedly directly impact both 787 and 747-8F programs. That in turn points to more risk of further delays for one or even both airplanes.
Critically, the wider market is still heavily depressed, despite what could be a record year for combined deliveries between Airbus and Boeing, driven largely by narrowbodies.
The key to ensuring that engineering and production run as smoothly as possible, as has been the case for the 747 thus far, a six month delay to the 787’s first flight is probably a good thing. Freeing up resources to get the 747-8F flight test program underway relieves factory pressure, leaving Boeing free to then push on with high speed taxi tests and eventually first flight for the 787.
Lest we forget, back in the 1960’s, the 737 was flown, tested and certified in around 8 months. There simply is no reason why with the level of technological advancement today that the 787 cannot emulate that.
While the 747-8F may reach for the skies first, it may yet be delivered at the same time as its 787 counterpart in the third quarter of next year.
46 comments July 10th, 2009
