En Paris
Just under two weeks from now the Paris Air Show kicks off, marking not only 100 years, but also one of the most uncertain outlooks that no one has the ability to correctly predict when an industry rebound will occur.
While the 2007 show was hit with rain showers, it also had what this show will lack - lots of money splashing around.
Credit is tight, the annual order figures (including cancellations) for Airbus and Boeing show that there is no specific pattern or trend emerging - rather the “unknown unknowns” is creating more questions than answers and a desire to hold on to the bumper order books has suddenly become more important than going out to secure new orders.
On home turf, its widely expected that Airbus will pull a rabbit out of its hat to mark the event - most notably musings of Turkish Airlines possibly signing up for a slew of A350XWB’s will be the highlight. By the same token, Boeing confirmed via Randy’s Journal that gauntlet testing commenced on the first 787 Dreamliner although he notes that Boeing doesn’t “expect to be able to provide progress reports as testing continues over the next several days”.
With just a window of 29 days to attain that first flight milestone, the chances of it occuring during the show will depend on the outcome of the gauntlet tests and how quickly any issues that crop up can be rectified.
Whether we see announcements of orders already on the books classified as “unidentified” could well be the pinnacle of the show - not least because we can find out who has what on order and whether they’ll stay committed to it while traffic continues to find the floor prior to an uptick.
Image courtesy of Rick Schlamp
Naturally, no air show would be complete without the powerhouse that is the Middle East region - IATA reported just last week how “Middle Eastern carriers saw demand growth in April of 11.2%, against a capacity expansion of 12.3%” - a remarkable set of traffic figures when seen against other regions - even more so now that FlyDubai has joined the mass of low cost carriers in the region to yet further increase competition and passenger choice. As consumer habits continue to change in the MidEast too, the expansion of some of these carriers has been nothing short of miraculous given the easing of industry travel.
Regardless, the show will be a good one as it always has been - although exhibitors, vendors and businesses will all be very, very careful not to jump the gun in anticipation of a rebound that thus far isn’t even on the horizon.
For the first time in a long time, this show will have more questions than answers - even more worrying is that any answers could still prove to be wrong.
7 comments June 1st, 2009
