Further A380 Customer Deferrals Seen
A380 Production Cuts Hang In Balance
Goodrich CEO Casts Doubt On Airbus’ 2009 Target
Etihad Airways appears to have joined the growing list of operators that has decided to push back deliveries of its Airbus A380′s, less than twelve months after placing one of the biggest orders in history for fleet procurement. While the carrier will enjoy basking in the buzz its new First Class product will cause at this weeks Arabian Travel Market in Dubai, the continuing fall off of premium traffic means that Etihad’s move to introduce this product is certainly a brave and ambitious one.
By delaying delivery of its first A380-800 until 2012, this decision will almost certainly force Airbus into having to re-evaluate its production plans for the big quadjet in the wake of a slew of deferrals already announced this year by various other customers – the majority of whom haven’t even had a single A380 delivered yet.
“We decided to pause for a breather before we ramped up the deliveries again, which now looks like a good decision,” said Etihad Airways CEO James Hogan.
Image courtesy of Airbus
“The over-ambitious and under-achieving Etihad Airways is well on the way to becoming the Middle East’s equivalent to India’s beleaguered Kingfisher Airlines, with a management afflicted by the same rose-tinted outlook which seems to be affecting an increasing number of Airbus customers. Etihad simply got carried away back in 2004 when it first ordered four A380s (planned to be refitted test aircraft). These aircraft were due for delivery from, er, 2007. 2012′s not that far away, though, is it?
The A380 is still not costing Etihad a penny, however. That might never change as market reality should catch up with the Middle Eastern carrier soon enough — and that reality clearly is that there is no room for the A380 in the airline’s projected route network.
Etihad should have stuck to their cancellation guns when they had the chance. Toulouse might well be known as La Ville Rose, but rose-tinted specs aren’t the greatest fashion accessory for loss-making airlines,” says Arran Aerospace’s Doug McVitie.
Etihad’s move to defer will equally pose questions as to whether rival Emirates can continue to resist the current downturn and inevitably succumb to deferring its own A380 orders.
Just last week, it was reported that Emirates had arranged to defer deliveries of its Boeing 777′s, as it took delivery of its seventy-fifth 777. Emirates President Tim Clark had been busy arranging these deferrals for several months in the wake of the plummeting traffic, particularly high yield traffic that has seen a tectonic shift in traveller preference toward lower cost flights as well as opting for regional travel from the likes of Air Arabia and Jazeera Airways.
Emirates is slated to take seven A380′s between April 1, 2009 and March 31, 2010.
“One of the things that scares me about the A380 is what’s going on with Emirates, they’ve given Airbus a long Squawk list. Their first airplanes have gone into service and you just wonder whether that’s because of what’s going on in the Middle East because they’ve been affected too by this when they haven’t in the past.
I think that could be just a prelude to delaying some of those shipments. So, we don’t have any more information on that right now, but let’s put it this way, we’re not counting on [Airbus] exactly hitting their forecast [for 2009],” said Marshall Larsen, Chairman, President and CEO of Goodrich Corporation during the first quarter earnings call in late April 2009.
“Our inventory has been high because of the continued delays they’ve had in that program. Now, we’ve not heard of another delay at this point in time, but we’ve got more inventory than we need right now,” he added.
Emirates Chairman Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al-Maktoum said at the Arabian Travel Market exhibition that there’d be “no delays in 2009, 2010 and 2011 [deliveries]“, however, as IATA point out last week in releasing traffic figures, the downturn in global traffic continues with minimal signs of recovery.
Emirates may not defer airplanes out of choice, but if Airbus does - as expected – reschedule its planned A380 production, the airline is unlikely to be upset that it will not be getting as many A380′s as quickly as it once hoped while the big Arabian carrier combats its decline in high yield traffic.
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Update: May 6, 2009
Airbus Confirms A380 Production Cut. Click
“I re-read your statement and again see you use it to say airlines should buy small planes. My comment stands.”
Either you are blind, stupid or both.
I said nothing of the sort.
Your comment is worthless – please show us ALL where I state that airlines “should buy small planes”. I can get more sense out of Keesje than with you. Do us a favor and quit putting words in peoples mouths – I might actually like what you have to say.
Leelaw,
Let’s imagine that you have a project where you currently have 100 orders each selling at 100. The manufacturing cost for the first 20 items is 150 but after that it is 50, I.e. you will lose 20 x 100 = 2,000 on the first 20 and then make 80 x 50 = 4,000 on the remaining 80. Do you continue?
Let’s now say that you already spent 4,000 in R&D and tooling for the product. Would that change your decision about producing the 100 units?
In my book the later situation gives me two options a) I can lose 4,000 but ending production now or b) I can produce the 100 items and “only” lose 2,000.
I see a 2,000 positive forward cash flow in option b over a so that is what I would do.
By Boeing investor:
I said nothing of the sort.
By Boeing investor in post 33:
ATA and ACI acknowledge that average seat count per airplane, even at HUBS have shown a decline. (I highlighted it in my reply to you.)
Add the comments you made around it and the only way I can read it is that you don’t think there is a market for VLA’s, i.e. don’t buy them. Why don’t you clarify how it should be understood?
Aurora:
IIRC, in 2007 Aboulafia and Gellman held a briefing at some industry event updating their original “Shadow CPA” where they concluded the 748 was a dog with fleas as well. There was a audio recording of this briefing but unfortunately the web link to it is no longer active.
“ATA and ACI acknowledge that average seat count per airplane, even at HUBS have shown a decline.”
Where does that say I said airlines “should buy smaller airplanes”????
All it says is that SEAT COUNT per AIRPLANE has gone down. It has nothing to do with the size(s) of the airplane itself. Nor did I advocate, as you lied about, that airlines should buy smaller jets.
” the only way I can read it is that you don’t think there is a market for VLA’s, i.e. don’t buy them. Why don’t you clarify how it should be understood?”
So, by failing to prove or back up your lies, you try to turn the tables on me? Pathetic. Either dont make claims you cant back up or just admit you’re a dunce pretending to be something you’re not (i.e “smart”).
Read what I wrote in post 43:
“The A380 is stuck in one hole with little or no future where as Boeing doesnt have all its 747 eggs in one basket. ”
Again, no mention of me claiming/stating/opining that I “dont think there is a market for VLA’s”.
You have again put words in my mouth that I never uttered. If you cant understand what I wrote then at least have the decency to admit it rather than attribute false statements.
And if you cant do that then you can shove your “devils advocate soapbox” where the sun doesn’t shine.
45. keesje | May 7th, 2009 at 09:02 said, “About the A380 I think around 2020 the A380 will dominate long haul travel with unmatched efficiencies and comfort levels.”
No. The A350-1000XWB can do those routes much more efficiently with the same comfort level.
“No. The A350-1000XWB can do those routes much more efficiently with the same comfort level”
Actually, the A380 is the ONLY aircraft that could conceivably carry stacked sleeper seats (economically) for today’s economy-class passengers.
Why?
First take a look at the first picture in this link:
http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/runway-girl/2008/12/in-search-of-sleep—james-par.html
In a conventional single-deck widebody configuration (including the 747), you obviously can’t stack sleeper seats at the window seats due to the curvature of the fuselage. However, on the A380 with it’s “straight” walls, thanks to the outward curved fuselage on the main deck, you can indeed stack the window seats.
However, for such a concept realistically to be certified, ALL stacked sleeper seats would have to have direct access to an aisle. Fortunately for the A380, it seems to fit perfectly these requirements.
The interior width of the main-deck at the seat level is 248 inches, while on the upper deck, the interior width is 208 inches at the seat level.
Therefore, the interior configuration of the A380 outfitted with stacked sleeper seats would have four 20-inch wide aisles and 16 seats per row on the main deck (8 on each level), while on the upper deck you would have three aisles and 12 seats per row (8 on the lower level and 4 on the upper level).
The following is the proposed configuration:
Main Deck A380: [21"(*)--20"(**)--42"(***)--20"--42"--20"--42"--20"--21"]x2
Upper deck A380: 42″–20″–2X[42"]–20″–2X[42"]–20″–42″
* 21 inch wide seat stacked sleeper seat (including armrests) which is the current standard in Y on the A380.
** 20 inch wide aisle
***42 inch wide double stacked sleeper seat arrangement (including armrests).
Conclusion: The main deck of the A380 accomodates 16 seats per row, while the upper deck can “only” accomodate 12 such seats per row. (i.e) Today the 777 can carry 10 seats per row in Y and can therefore compete with the A380. However, it looks like the 777 (and the A330/A350/787 as well) can ONLY carry the same number of stacked sleeper seats as the upper deck of the A380 (albeit with slightly wider seats) in order to fulfil the requirements of direct aisle access for all these seats. In other words: No current or planned aircraft can possibly compete with the A380 carrying stacked sleeper seats in economy class, with all seats having direct aisle access, and configured with four aisles on the main deck, and/or three aisles on the upper deck; infact, only a BWB configuration with straight interior walls would better an A380.
The seat pitch for the stacked sleeper seats would be a whopping 2,5 times the current industry standard for seats in economy class. How can an airline flying with “regular” economy seats possibly compete with something like that?
Notably, the airframe needs to be stretched to around 85m if it is to carry the same number of passengers as in (i.e) SQ’s current three-class configuration (premium classes unchanged, and having the same number of seats).
The forthcoming structural improvements and the addition of Trent-XWB engines in the 2015+ timeframe, and with a MTOW of around 610 tonnes would deliver similar range capability to the original A380-800′s R/P curve, but with at least 20 percent more payload capability while still keeping the fuel burn increase down to around 6-8 percent over the original A388. With the same number of passenger as the A388, this stretched aircraft would also have significantly increased lower deck space and a significant maximised freight revenue potential.
If this new economy class seat should be realised, it looks like we just might see a paradigm shift in the industry, and in such a way that no carrier could survive without an A380 on the main routes between Europe and Asia/Australasia and Between North-America and Asia/Australasia.
And remember; the MTOW of the A380 can theoretically grow to 750 metric tonnes, (and over 100 meters in length). Interestingly, the length of the aborted Boeing 2707 was over 93m, so stretching the A380 over 80m is really not much of an issue if you’re dealing with something that would change “the game”.
.. or perhaps a LAPCAT – A2
http://www.reactionengines.co.uk/images/lapcat/library/hires/A380_compared_1280.jpg
http://www.reactionengines.co.uk/lapcat.html
The initial A388 model doesn’t need to sell any additional frames. The last of the initial 200 frames sold, will likely be delivered in late 2014, or early 2015. At that point the improved second generation A380 could be ready. And who knows, maybe you’ll see several stretch versions with the largest one approaching 100m in length. However, with the initial A388, Airbus forced the major airports around the world to accomodate the 80m wingspan of the vehicle, which BTW is a far more important metric than an aircraft’s length.
Boeing Investor,
I did not turn it on you. I asked for clarification on the part you said I got wrong so I can get it right and then decide what my action will be.
I’m probably misunderstand what you’re saying now too because to me it reads that if you’re not advocating smaller planes as I first understood then your advocating they reduce seat count on current planes and that somehow this means the A380 is stuck in a hole. Again, I’m probably misunderstanding so am asking for clarification.
Is it too much to ask for your comments on the A345/6 vs 748 as it relates to that many people saying the A345/6 is at loss but the 748 has enough orders to be guaranteed profit.
57. MPTA-098 | May 7th, 2009 at 21:15 said, Actually, the A380 is the ONLY aircraft that could conceivably carry stacked sleeper seats (economically) for today’s economy-class passengers.
Why don’t you put economy class passengers in stacked coffins?
“Why don’t you put economy class passengers in stacked coffins?”
Nonsense. The concept would utilize the available volume in the airframe, which of course is different than todays seating arrangements that can only utilize the available floor area. Actually, I’m sure you were too lazy to look at the link to runway-girl’s blog, because one must be pretty thick to believe that those seats are “stacked coffins”. In regard to an emergency evacuation, please have a look at this link:
http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/runway-girl/Air%20Sleeper%20comparison%20table.JPG
For the JPA stacked sleeper:
Far passengers don’t have immediate aisle access. If aisle seat in flat position NO access to far seat. Upper tier cannot even jum over as the stairs are covered
As I said, to be certified, ALL seats must have access to an aisle. Simple as that. Because of this requirement, an economy seat using the design principle for the JPA Stacked Sleeper seats — and not the MMILLENNIUM AirSleeper seat which I would agree would be more “coffin-like” — would essentially become a “narrow” business class (bare bones) seat. Therefore, a satisfactory economy passenger density will NOT be very difficult to achieve given the available extra space available for the steps.
On the 777-300ER, Singapore Airlines’ economy class area covers a length of approximately 21m, which would be enough to accomodate 120 JPA (-type) stacked sleeper seats in a (2-2×2-2×2-2)-configuration with three aisles, and a seat pitch of 210 cm which is a whopping 2,5 times the current industry standard The economy class in the present configuration holds 228 seats.
On the A380-800, Emirates is using the entire main deck for economy class. Likewise, SQ could do the same for a stacked sleeper seat configuration, and could thus accomodate about 250 such seats on the main deck with a seat pirch of 210 cm. The first class seats that are currently on the 77W would be put on the forward upper deck (like-for-like configuration). Do note that I’m using SQ as a case since they are using the same seats in C and Y on their 77W and A388.
So, this means that on the 777-300, using these stacked seats in Y, you would have nearly a 50 percent reduction in capacity whereas on the A380-800, you would have a little less than a 40 percent reduction in capacity. And the SQ 77W would only have a 170 passenger capacity in three classes which is obvoiously NOT economical.
However, as I said in the example above, a stacked sleeper seat configuration would become significantly more advantageous for the A380 as the frame is stretched since you could both use additional upper deck space for these seats — in addition to the increased seating on the main deck, as well as having an option in utilizing lower-deck floor space for lavatories and galleys.
Finally, it looks like I made a mistake in the post above regarding the stacked seat confirguration on the upper deck of the A380.
There’s only space for 11 seats per row — and not 12 — on the upper deck:
42″–20″–2X[42"]–20″–2X[42"]–20″–20″
Two window seats on one side and only one window seat on the other side (with decreased witdth to 20 inches instead of 21 on that seat). On the 777, there’s enough space available to accomodate 12 seats per row.
Guys,
We all love watching this industry and have our points of view, and “our team”, but lets keep the comments respectful please.
It will make this already interesting dialogue even more readable.