Airbus Cuts A Smokescreen
Airbus’ announcement of production cuts may not have come as a surprise against a backdrop of economic woes, but dissecting the numbers reveals an altogether different story.
In its press release issued yesterday, Airbus stated that it would cut production of its “A320 Family programme from 36 to 34 a month from October 2009 onwards.”
Based on Airbus’ 2008 delivery figures, the monthly production figures do not match up or make sense. In 2008, Airbus delivered 386 A320 family airplanes. Over twelve months, that equates to just over 32 airplanes a month - certainly not 36.
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36 airplanes a month would equate to 432 deliveries and as we all know, Airbus did not deliver that many single aisle jets at all. Even the production rate of the A330/A340 is skewed. In 2008, Airbus delivered 85 A330/A340 jets, roughly 7 airplanes a month. Yet Airbus claims to be pausing the A330/A340 production at 8.5 a month - that would mean 102 deliveries of A330/A340’s a year, not 85!
Airbus’ figures are a smokescreen. Clearly, it is not cutting back because it is not operating at the levels it claims it is.
Arran Aerospace MD Doug McVitie tells me that Airbus numbers are inconsistent and disingenuous.
“Airbus is trying to give the impression it is reacting ahead of time, but it is not reacting at all. How come there are no layoffs?
Airbus are not actually cutting anything as the unions of course wouldn’t allow it.
If the narrowbody production rate is 36/month, how come they only delivered 386 last year instead of 432,” says McVitie.
“In 2008 the delivery rate was 32.16/month, in 2007 30.58 aircraft. In January 2009 Airbus delivered 31 A320-family aircraft. So the 25-month rolling production rate is 31.36 aircraft/month, not 34 and not 36,” he adds.
Critically, Airbus has failed to identify which A320 customers deliveries it would cut, if indeed it is going to cut production in 2009.
The only other plausible scenario here is that Airbus has a raft of cancellations that have yet to be made public - the numbers do not add up and in the absence of any major A320 operator stating that they want to slow down deliveries, cancellation of orders is the likely scenario that will inevitably emerge.
46 comments February 20th, 2009
