I’m not sure a 777-200LRF can carry more then an old converted 400..

Time will show whats gonna happen.

Right about time the 747-8F enters service and we’ll see a good number of 777 freighters in service too offering superior economics, range and higher uplift than the converted, range restricted 747-400.

“We’re in a downcycle now and hoping we’re on the cusp of an upcycle,”

“Hope” – that doesnt translate to orders – that is a FACT, regardless of what “message” you or anyone else aspires to extract from it.

Even Air France is dumping its 747BCFs in favor of the 777F!

http://www.boeing.com/news/releases/2009/q1/090219a_nr.html

Q Aviation senior vice-president Steve Fortune also predicts a turnaround: “Our view is the cargo market will recover in the 2010 or 2011 timeframe. Now is the time to lay ground work for that recovery.”

Quiet a different message from what you take out of it.

How many 747-100 / 200 where converted? Many hundreds. Most likely hundreds of 747-400′s will be converted too, outselling its 8F brother.

The fundamentals of the market today are not the same as the late 1990′s and conversion rates will not be as high as you think.

Fuel costs alone kill off that prospect.

As for the 744 fleet, some will be sold to other airlines, some will be scrapped (dont forget, last year we saw a younger (than 747) 777 scrapped because it wasnt worth the repair bill.

Sorry Keesje that article is not worth the paper its written on – its over two years old and does not take into account that there have been more orders for new build freighters than that of converted airplanes.

How about you read this from just 6 months ago:

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/09/26/316483/cargo-conversion-sales-continue-to-struggle-despite-improvement-in.html

“For example, Boeing and Israel Aerospace Industries’ Bedek Aviation Group division are both struggling to find customers for their Boeing 747-400 conversion lines despite the recent improvement in feedstock. ”

It goes on:

“The 747-400 Boeing Converted Freighter (BCF) back-order, which at one point exceeded 40, now stands at only 14 aircraft.”

And:

“The 767-300ER is really going to be, from a conversion point of view, the most desirable plane in the market. The economics of that plane as a freighter are really strong.”

So you see Keesje, your dream of 747BCF’s somehow decimating the demand for newbuild jets is a very hollow and ill-thought out position, even if you believe it otherwise.

The facts are not on your side.

The delayed delivery of A380′s delayed the conversion matket too.

What do you think will happen to the 747-400s from SQ, QF, LH, BA, JAL, KLM, ANA, AF, etc ? Parked in the desert?

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?channel=awst&id=news/aw102306p3.xml

Soon the lines will rmp up. How do you think those machines influence the 8F margins? Honestly?

747-200 are parked rapidly or already have been parked. B747-400F too already.

Big cargo haulers traditionaly prefer cheap high capasity coverted machines.

Spanking new expensive cargo aircraft..

Huh??

Check the current orderbooks for freighters. Forget the state of the market – I’ll come onto that in a moment.

767F/777F/747F’s dominate and outnumber 747BCF’s.

The 777-300ER will never be a freighter as good as the 747-8F, and the A380 will not be worth the cost of converting because of the useless upper deck, good only for carrying pillow-cases or paper towels.

As for the market, dont forget the A380 survived the 9-11/SARS downturn, the 747-8F will survive this downturn – neither had a true rival during the bad time.

Yes there will some 747BCF’s, but look at the 747-200 market and how many of those went to BCF, the biz case for the 747-400 gets worse when you factor in the real possibility that over the next 20 years fuel bills will head north, not south.

Nice try Keesje.

Heavy checked and converted in Israel, China or Singapore and selling for a thrid of the price of a new -8F or -200LRF.

I happy to not be the one that has to explains the board brand new 747-8Fs are worth the additional $150.000.000 a ship, these days.

It appears that the 777F is an excellent investment and may well cut into the Cargo market more than expected. At least it is certified, produceable and reasonably economical….

Now. Who’s got a sweet line of efficient and up to the mark freighters and crap haulers that you can see, touch, feel and hear?

Is it too much to ask “Who’s your daddy?”

It looks like CDG-ORD will get the first 77F route beginning March 4.

Once a week IAH will get the 77F with CDG-ORD-IAH-CDG beginning March 11.

Everything subject to change, of course.