747-8: It’s A Big Idea
November 6th, 2008
…Whose Time Has Come. Again.
Unusually, the first stretched derivative of the 747 will be the 747-8F, which began assembly in mid-August this year. While there is nothing set in stone that suggests a passenger variant “must” come first, the fact the 747-8F will emerge before its passenger counterpart points largely to its success in the marketplace since its launch. Equally, the 747-8I is not just another big quad for the sake of the Boeing portfolio - its merits have been widely underrated, in part by the hype of the A380 and the formidable 777 family.
Critics on various websites and forums have suggested Boeing terminate the 747-8I, given the sole order from Lufthansa, while conveniently overlooking the equally lucrative VIP sales that the airplane has notched up. Furthermore, the pressure on Airbus for pricing on its A380 with a rival-of-sorts means that by default, and relatively inexpensively, Boeing has an airplane to ebb away at the 400-500 seat arena.
“One of the fundamental differences between the 747-8I and the A380 as aircraft programmes is that the former is of evolutionary design while the latter’s is revolutionary, in size if not in technology. In a traditional industry like aerospace manufacturing, which is littered with casualties from the Spruce Goose to Concorde, the case for revolutionary change is far from proven.
As Airbus found out with the over-sized and unwanted A380F, there is just no market for an aircraft offering double the freighter capacity of the DC-10-30F. Air freight doesn’t work that way, and only the reluctance of the first A380 operators to focus on quality rather than quantity is sparing Airbus the extra embarrassment of half-empty passenger A380s flying half-way around the world too,” says Arran Aerospace Managing Director, Doug McVitie.
Perhaps one of the most vocal airlines displaying interest, and criticism, for the new 747-8 Intercontinental has been Dubai-based Emirates, currently the biggest single customer for the A380. Emirates has long been seen as a leading candidate to order the 747-8I.
Emirates seem to be indicating a need for a 50-ton payload capable 747-8I that can seat 400 passengers and fly a range of around 8,300nm. For any person following the 747 programme closely it becomes very evident that Emirates certainly has a sincere interest in the new 747-8, but just not enough, yet, to finally sign a firm order for the model.
Boeing currently displays the 747-8I capability as a 45-ton payload airplane, capable of flying 467 passengers 8,000nm in a Boeing ruled tri-class layout.
Since Emirates SkyCargo ordered the 747-8F, the airline has both praised and criticized the 747-8I variant. A brief history report of Emirates’ involvement in the 747-8I has been highlighted below:
On 29th January 2007, Emirates president Tim Clark remarked that the airline were going to try convince Boeing to build the original 74.2m stretched version as that model offered a range capable of excess 8,300nm with more than 400 passengers in a Boeing ruled tri-class seating. Click here.
On 6th November 2007, Boeing confirmed firm design freeze for the 747-8I.
On 12th November 2007, there was much anticipation at the 10th Dubai Air Show that Emirates intended to ink a 747-8I deal. Everyone was disappointed. Tim Clark acknowledged that the 747-8 was still being eyed at Emirates, and that by no means was it off their radar, but rather it was “just pushed back a bit” while awaiting flight test data from the GEnx-powered 787.
Boeing Commercial Airplane President and CEO Scott Carson, remarked that “Boeing and GE are working hard to meet the Emirates range/payload requirement with both engine and aircraft configuration improvements and that we’re extremely close and deep in discussions.” Boeing indeed was “competing aggressively” according to Carson to sell the new 747 to Emirates.
“When you look at an airline like Emirates that’s got a big 777 fleet, [and] a big A380 fleet, there’s got to be some room in a fleet like that for a 747-8 size,” said Boeing’s VP Marketing, Randy Tinseth.
“And when you have the commonality with the 747-8 Freighter, it makes the economics work even better,” he added.
Lufthansa is poised to take delivery of its first 747-8I in late 2010, flying alongside its larger A380 fleet companion.
It reaffirms that it was not a case of operating one or the other, but rather both!
Despite the strike that has hit both production and deliveries of all 7-series airplanes, the German carrier is confident in both its purchase of the 747-8I and remains committed to taking delivery.
“Lufthansa has been working very closely with its partner Boeing and is looking forward to the delivery of the 747-8 in 2010. At present, Lufthansa has no information about a delay of delivery,“ a spokeswoman for the airline said.
Moreover, the airline said that “at the moment, we’re not planning to order the 787 Dreamliner or the Airbus A350XWB,”.
Comparisons with the A380 are nothing new, yet the big Airbus still draws plenty of critics - not just for its long term potential in a contracting marketplace, but also because of Airbus’ errors in the programme from the outset.
Tinseth states that “we still believe there’s a market for big airplanes. It’s just not as big as [Airbus] thinks it is,“.
“On the A380……Slow sales, heavy price discounting, production delays, sizeable cost increases and costly recompense to customers for delivery delays are only part of the problem for Airbus and there will likely now need to be a strategic rethink by the airplane maker for long term A380 sales forecasts. Clearly the expectation that Airbus had three years ago will need to be downwardly adjusted.
Given the disappointing order backlog of the program at this stage, the now much weakened state of the global airline industry, ongoing problems Airbus has in getting this program into full scale production plus a break even point that may be as high as 600+ aircraft financial viability for this program must remain a distant dream.
Airbus wisely dropped the original intention for a freighter version of the A380 and while it may at some point choose to push this program forward again I do not consider the market will be ready for a freighter version of this plane for very many years,” says Howard Wheeldon.
In the past, other’s have been highly scathing of Airbus’ decision to plough untold billions into the A380. For Boeing, seeing that criticism all but justifies their decision to abandon the 747-500X/-600X project despite the high level of interest it had, albeit with no customers committing to it.
“It’s probably the single biggest mistake in aviation history. Even if the development program weren’t technically botched, you still have the problem that it’s just the wrong plane,” said Teal Groups Richard Aboulafia.
With the 747-400 fleet looking to be replaced, Lufthansa saw the 747-8I as a great fit in its fleet requirements- particularly since it didn’t want to “misuse” the A380 on 747 mission profiles.
“We needed an aircraft for our fleet to fill the gap between the A340-600 with about 310 seats, the 747-400 with about 360, and the A380 which has around 200 more seats” said Dr. Karl Echtermeyer who is responsible in the group Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Assessment department at Lufthansa.
“Just like the Airbus A380, the 747-8I will be a so-called three-litre (consumption per passenger/100km) aircraft”, he went on to say.
“Large jets are definitely a niche market. Since the A380 was launched, there have been nearly 3,000 orders for mid-sized widebodies–777s, 787s, A330s, A350s, etc–and many more in the pipeline. There have been about 400 orders for the A380 and 747, with very few prospects of notable large orders moving forward. After all that debate about the A380 and the large airplane segment, the market has spoken quite eloquently.
As for that large airplane niche, so far the A380 has the lead, but with passenger versions only. The 747-8 is capturing the cargo market,” says Aboulafia.
“I think the first thing to note is that we think both products are tackling limited niches at the top end of the passenger and freighter aircraft market, and so the market for either product is likely to be limited. Our view is that the airlines are likely to prefer the A380 vs. the 747-8 in the passenger market, as it has the clear advantages of being a completely new aircraft versus a derivative.
The response from the airlines that have started to operate the A380 has been very positive, and this may lead to a few more orders (maybe from Japan), but the number of potential buyers is understandably small.
Given that Airbus has effectively withdrawn from the super widebody freighter market for now, this is where the 747-8 will probably see the bulk of its orders, though again the number of potential buyers for a new freighter aircraft of this scale is likely to remain limited.
Given the current economic outlook, the demand environment, and the credit situation, we are likely to see pressure on aircraft orders across the board, not just for these models,” says aerospace analyst Robert Stallard.
Boeing is certainly proud of the success the new, advanced 747-8I has enjoyed in the Boeing Business Jet division. On 30th May 2006, Boeing received the first firm order for the 747-8BBJ jet, and by mid October 2008, Boeing had secured 8 firm orders for the 747-8BBJ from 7 unidentified customers.
Like the BBJ model, its 467-seat passenger sister will also begin to enjoy more success on the commercial side, but it’ll likely never come close to the sales success of its predecessor; the “ageless” 747-400. As attested by launch customer Lufthansa, “it will be a big success” and that the airline will not be the only customer.
With a maximum range of 17,150km (9,260nm) with 100 guests on board, and capable of a Mach 0.86 (econ) 747-8 VIP is a business jet beyond superlatives. It is the fastest business jet in the ultra-large arena, capable of Mach 0.92 maximum cruise speed, making it the pinnacle of business jet excellence.
“With more than 5,000 square feet of cabin space, the new 747-8 VIP jet epitomises incomparable luxury and operational flexibility,” said Steve Hill, Boeing’s BBJ President.
With the 747-8’s order book comprising of 78 firm orders for the highly-efficient 747-8F, 28 firm orders for the 747-8I variant and a commitment for 4 747-8I’s by Arik Air, the programme is in a very healthy position and will only get stronger, period. If nothing else, while the 747-8F continues to sell, the 747-8I will all but stifle A380 orders.
My colleague Robert Luedeman points out a few issues routinely overlooked:
“We’ve often opined that the B747I program was akin to Kaiser Wilhelm’s fleet-not important enough to dominate, but certainly enough to tie up huge resources, annoy the hell out of Airbus, and slurp up some lose orders here and there. Had the B747-8I not been available, it’s likely that Lufthansa would have ordered 20 more A380s than they did.
If you’re a contrarian thinker, as we here are at times, that 747-8I order might have done Airbus some good because it was 20 money losers they didn’t have to build, likewise the orders that Fedex and UPS cancelled.
Following this line, the BA (British Airways) order puts the A380 back in the crapper for EADS because that’s 12 more money losers they have to build before the life support for this turd of a program is discontinued.”
747-8I economics v 777-300ER:
There are no two-ways about it: the 747-8I is a very efficient airplane. Optimised for the 400 to 500 seat market, it is an airplane beyond superlatives offering airlines a very unique, cost-effective, low risk/higher reward approach to modernise their fleets. It offers airlines a very compelling alternative to the A380 should Airbus be trying to pitch that in the 747-8I’s territory.
Whilst the two leviathans are not direct competitors, the 747-8I still offers a more viable alternative to the larger than 400 seat market.
What is stupendous about the 747-8I is that it offers economics and performance that one would expect to see only from a clean-sheet, all-new design airplane. “The Boeing 747-8I is a new aircraft – and not a new aircraft,” said Lufthansa Fleet Managements Nico Buchholz.
Whilst the perceived threat to the 747-8I is the 777-300ER, this is in fact a slight misconception. The two airplanes indeed complement each other, and whilst Boeing did stretch the 747-8I to offer better seat/mile costs compared to the 777-300ER in part, the 747 remains in a class of its own.
With 467 seats in a Boeing ruled tri-class arrangement, the 747-8I offers 102 more seats with a 5% reduction in seat/mile costs over the 777-300ER. Further, the 747-8I is capable of a range of 8,000nm at Mach 0.86, compared to 7,930nm at Mach 0.84 for the 777-300ER.
However, due to its twin-engine efficiency, the 777-300ER offers around 20% lower trip costs than the new 747. Whilst the 747 does boast a 0.27m wider cabin, the 777-300ER offers 7,120 cubic feet of volumetric cargo against the -8I’s 5,705 cubic feet. This means the 777-300ER can carry an additional pallet and 4 additional LD3’s a Boeing ruled typical cargo layout.
“The 747-8I, on the other hand, looks on paper to be an aircraft that will find its market from the existing 747 customer base whereas the A380’s early customers have already been extensively cherry-picked.
What’s left on the respective trees for each manufacturer is probably a very accurate reflection of the relative merits of their two different approaches as airlines on the one hand grow into the 747-8I while on the other, a small but select number gamble big on the unproven A380, which certainly has more in common with a white elephant than a spruce goose,” says McVitie.
(Article co-written with my colleague, airline pilot Chris Cook, based in Johannesburg, South Africa).
All images courtesy of Airbus, Boeing & Lufthansa
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34 Comments Add your own
1. Chris C | November 6th, 2008 at 8:40 am
Sales’ campaigns for the 747-8I are progressing steadily, and whilst 2008 was predicted to be the big year for orders for the -8I, next year is predicted to be the start of the order influx. This year so far Boeing had 3 -8VIP orders, Arik Air announced its intent to order 4 plus 1 747-8I, and there was another airline that nearly ordered a few of them as well. That’s all we can reveal, so far!
The interest in the -8I remains solid.
Enjoy the article, looking forward to comments, if any.
2. keesje | November 6th, 2008 at 9:07 am
Hi Chris, thanks for taking it up for the under dog that is the 747-8i. You sure have a passion for the 747. It a beautifull aircraft, but so were many other designs from the sixties.
Boeing decided to make a diversion in their O&D overview. It’s now has 747-8F, 747-8i’s and 747-8 VIPS in three different categories. Raises the question what would be the business case for the VIPS to be based on the 747-8F fuselage, rather then the stretched upperdeck 8i. I guess the VIP clients wouldn’t really bother.
Sales of the A380 have been a continous stream.
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z160/keesje_pics/wikia38026okt08.jpg?t=1225100259
The Lufthansa order is the only passenger 747 order since 2002. While the 747-8F seems to c become a good (and the only) big VLA freighter, the 747-8i IMO might be rationalized away to focus on the 8F & bring down costs by Boeing management.
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/10/23/317856/cost-jump-for-747-frustrates-boeing.html
Regarding the 747-8i being uncertain;
- it got only 1 order in many years,
- still no metal is cut for the 8i,
- LH & Boeing keep silent,
- alternatives exist,
- major airlines (SQ, BA, QF) openly dismissed it,
- 8 program costs have been been unexpectedly grown again,
- the market boom is over, cash is king.
- Both Boeing (787-3) and LH (Do728) have shown decisiveness when markets change.
- the latest comments of Boeing executives are not encouraging to say it mildly.
Key to the 747-8i future is if Lufthansa, Boeing and all 8i subcontractors are willing to go a sole operator advanture for 20 aircraft. The VIP orders can be handled in different ways (8F versions, 747-400 modifications, 777ER’s, A380’s, A340-600s etc.)
I think many people (inlcuding me) would be dissapointed if Boeing & LH rationalize their plans, but it would not come unexpected.
rgds keesje
3. Chris C | November 6th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Thanks for your comment, Keesje, and you’re welcome.
I don’t think there’s a business case at all for Boeing to even contemplate basing the -8VIP on the -8F frame. For one, the -8F has no windows, and the expense of modifying such an airplane for windows, let alone doors, would cost far too much when there’s an optimised -8I better suited for the needs. Boeing’s CEO did reaffirm that Boeing is committed to the -8I, and further, that there was no specific order tally needed to go-ahead with the program. The cost jump may be attributed to continued tweaking of the -8I to get the additional payload/range, hence our article focusing on the “Emirates-specification” once again.
Lufthansa is firmly committed to the -8I, and I certainly hope that once it is in service with them in mid-2010, you’ll be one of the first passengers on a revenue flight!
As I said in the first comment, the campaigns are progressing steadily for the -8I, and there’s strong interest. This airplane will be a big success.
You do raise some good points Keesje, but if VIP customers wanted 777-300ER VIPs, or A380VIPs, they would’ve ordered them. Remember, Boeing sold its first -8I as a VIP model.
I sure have a love for the 747, and I know you do as well!
Thanks Keesje, cheers.
4. Chris Wallace | November 6th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
With the hundreds of millions Boeing has already invested in the 747-8I, to cancel it now would be fiscally reckless and rather then saving money, would end up costing Boeing (and it’s suppliers) money due to cancellation costs, lost revenues, higher development costs (to make the 747-8F suitable for VIP use), etc.
It would also likely trigger shareholder lawsuits and the last thing Boeing management needs right now is to shift their focus away from their existing issues to a new one.
The only move for Boeing is to go forward. LH will not cancel, but even if they did, Boeing would still go forward with the program. They literally have no choice at this point.
5. Jacobin777 | November 6th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
to Keesje about the comment..”- major airlines (SQ, BA, QF) openly dismissed it,”
Some insight about BA’s selection would certainly help. There are some facts which you obviously don’t know about and BA has never “openly dismissed” it.
6. Chris C | November 6th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
Hi Mr. C Wallace,
Thanks for your excellent comment! You’re spot-on regarding the 747-8I! What do you think the chances are of Boeing moving ahead with the -8ER Intercontinental to meet the “Emirates-Specification”? Boeing have indicated that the -8I is capable of accomodating auxillary fuel tanks similar to the the -400ER. That, of course, will mean the airplane is less efficient, but range wise, a whole lot more capable. And, do you think that Boeing may yet opt for a 74,2m long -8I variant as well if there’s a sizable demand?
Cheers
7. boeing investor | November 6th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Well, we all know QantASS screwed up by not ordering the -8i.
They havent got the 77W either and nothing to replace the 747-400’s.
So between their useless A333’s and A380’s, they have a void they wont fill because of their stupidity.
8. Bryan | November 6th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
@Jacobin777: BA might have not openly dismissed it, but have surely said its not in their plans for the forseeable future, you can interpret that however you want.
@Boeing Investor: sorry Qantas has to crushed you 10yr old Boeing 747-8 fanboy fantasy by ordering the plane that best suited their needs. I’m sure Dixon is weeping at the sight of the money that those “useless” A330’s and A380’s are earning for them. Like all VLA i don’t see how its idea has come, its not gonna be a best seller, nor is it gonna sell more than its competitor, it’ll sell just enough for Boeing to make money with it, something Airbus can’t do(yet) on the A380.
Anyway, is it me or does this blog have a really obvious Boeing bias, why even talk about Airbus at all, if everytime you mention the company, its always something negative to bring it down?
9. Trike | November 6th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
From Keesje “Hi Chris, thanks for taking it up for the under dog that is the 747-8i. You sure have a passion for the 747. It a beautifull aircraft, but so were many other designs from the sixties.” - A less than subtle swipe at the “enemy” (from your perspective) Boeing 747. Mate, what you have to understand is a) this is not a direct competitor for the 380 and b) it has been incredibly successful at undermining the 3fatty despite not being in the same segment. When the latest version of the 747 begins gracing the skies, it’s going to put you in your box with it’s new millenium economics. Just because it’s an evolution, it doesn’t make it any less of an aircraft capable of providing leading edge efficiences for it’s Airline owners. As for Boeing… good for them creating such a machine for the money. Meanwhile the EU citizens have to foot the bill for this “mine is bigger than yours” costly mistake.
10. edo | November 8th, 2008 at 8:08 am
After reading hundreds of posts and write-ups I must say that Trike put it best: “mine is bigger than yours”
Overall I am glad the 380 was developed though. My wife has a real problem with turbulence and bigger is better for that. I have been reading about some new stabilization technologies for the 787 but unless proven effective I remain skeptical.
Overall it seems very fishy to me that so few airlines are ordering so many 380s. As for Qantas, Singapore etc, they make it sound like they were so dissatisfied with the 747 for so many years. Hogwash.
I think LH is doing the right thing by using both. The proper plane for the proper circumstances. Simple as that. Eventually others will come around as well.
Overall it was about time the plane manufacturers started offering something new and improved for us the cramped economy customers. The 777 was probably the first major step in that direction. I hope subsequent planes offer more improvements and greater safety.
I want to travel fast, in a quiet environment with little noise. I want to eat a decent plate of food while doing so and I do not want to have to wear knee pads during my 7-8-9 + hours in that stupid tin (or composite) can in the sky. I also expect the airlines to respect us enough and not cram those seats within 5 inches of each other.
Ultimately, this is about US and not the airlines or the manufacturers.
11. Chris C | November 9th, 2008 at 6:40 pm
Hi Edo:
Thanks for comment, you’ve raised some good points, and I fully agree with you on your statements.
Regards,
12. keesje | November 11th, 2008 at 9:22 am
“Lufthansa is firmly committed to the -8I, and I certainly hope that once it is in service with them in mid-2010, you’ll be one of the first passengers on a revenue flight!”
I think Boeing / LH ows you a ticket!
“Anyway, is it me or does this blog have a really obvious Boeing bias, why even talk about Airbus at all, if everytime you mention the company, its always something negative to bring it down? ”
There is. But it so openly and blatant that it cannot be denied. Everybody knows so its clear & workable
Despite the somewhat “young US patriot” comments on the A380 is proves real succesfull. Extremely realiable, high quality, silent and popular withs its passengers, from the heart of Europe. Even now more carriers are committing. In a few years they will be all over the USA. This might make some feel bad but its reality.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24509713-5015661,00.html
Cost for the 747-8i have yet to take-off, the non-recurring costs for development and start-up of the dedicated 747-8i supply chain..
On LH and Boeing statements; for programs like these it common pratcise to fully support them until you end them.
Better have a good look at what happened to the Boeing 787-3, 787-10 and 767-400ERX.
13. boeing investor | November 11th, 2008 at 9:41 am
“Anyway, is it me or does this blog have a really obvious Boeing bias, why even talk about Airbus at all, if everytime you mention the company, its always something negative to bring it down?”
Bryan - Have a day off please.
It seems criticizing Airbus is tantamount to being “illegal” in some quarters - they are in the market together (with Boeing) and should be rightfully discussed, whether its good or bad news.
Highlighting it (Airbus’ woes) is no crime.
Unless you are an armchair CEO residing on the Airliner.net reprobate website.
Frankly who gives a shit if this site has a Boeing bias - the fact it pointed out correctly the A350XWB design freeze slip when no other media/reports have done so is a good sign - would Airbus have said anything otherwise?
No, like its comments on the A400M, they’d have us believe its on time.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKB8578820061202
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSB8578820061202
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8NnsMZGZl78&refer=home
There isn’t a site out there that challenges the Airbus confederacy - if you don’t like the content here, just why do you feel the need to keep coming back?
Stay on Airliners where you’ll feel safe in the salvo’s at Boeing.
Jeez…
14. keesje | November 11th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
“Stay on Airliners where you’ll feel safe in the salvo’s at Boeing.”
boeing investor, if you can’t take the head stay out of the kitchen
My opinion is would would strenghten the 747-8 line if Boeing postpones the -8i and is able to simplify the 747-8 design, certification, production and support process.
That could lower the program costs and increase margins. At the end of the day that’s what it’s all about.
15. boeing investor | November 11th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
“if you can’t take the head stay out of the kitchen ”
What are you talking about?
Bryan was complaining that this site is critical of Airbus, whereas I noted that Airliners is critical of Boeing yet refuses to discuss things like Airbus’ troubles like the A350 design freeze slipping - so whats your point?
Why would Boeing postpone the 747-8I? Lufthansa or the BBJ customers arent asking for it to be delayed.
Further, with the firm configuration already achieved, delaying it would likely bring on a premature ejaculatory response from those who furiously delude it’ll be canceled altogether.
As for costs, an Airbus loving site of fanboys are in no position to dictate cost worries when the A380 will never pay off its $20bn debt, and the A350 riding high at over $27bn will equally make financiers cringe with fear…Throw in the A400M for good measure too…
16. Chris C | November 11th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
The Boeing 747-8 Intercontinental is a phenomenal airplane, that is highly fuel-efficient and offers the lowest operating costs of any large airplane, period. The 747-8I will be a big success, in terms of orders…it already is a success in itself as it is a true -400 replacement airplane. Lufthansa is firmly committed to this airplane, and there’s a few airlines that are very interested in the airplane, that’s a definite. The financial crisis slowed some campaigns this year. The orders will come…not a flood…but they’ll come, period.
Keesje, you seem hell-bent on the idea that the -8I will be cancelled, and you know what, I’m not going to try to tell you that you’re wrong as you are set in your mind, and there’s clearly no changing that. You’ll probably still be saying that the -8I will be cancelled after Lufthansa excercises -8I options, after more airlines order it, and when it is flying.
Thanks for the humour anyway Keesje.
17. keesje | November 13th, 2008 at 8:37 pm
“The Boeing 747-8 Intercontinental is a phenomenal airplane, that is highly fuel-efficient and offers the lowest operating costs of any large airplane, period. ”
Chris, Lufthansa says the A380 is more fuel efficient then the Boeing 747-8i. Are they biased?
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z160/keesje_pics/lufthansafuelburna380-747-8i.jpg?t=1226608406
SQ, QF and BA operate large Boeing fleets and bought a lot of 787’s, but skipped the 747-8i. Are they biased against Boeing?
Maybe an unwelcome reality is unfolding.
18. Chris C | November 13th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Article Update: Boeing’s latest order page has revealed that there’s been a cancellation for one Boeing 747-8VIP business jet, thus reducing year total orders for 747 to 2, and programme total to 105. Order cancellation likely linked to the global financial crisis, as the customer maybe struggling to obtain necessary financing.
Oh, do I hear a noise from comment number 17?
19. Ed | November 14th, 2008 at 9:18 am
“Stay on Airliners where you’ll feel safe in the salvo’s at Boeing.”
boeing investor, if you can’t take the head stay out of the kitchen
My opinion is would would strenghten the 747-8 line if Boeing postpones the -8i and is able to simplify the 747-8 design, certification, production and support process.
That could lower the program costs and increase margins. At the end of the day that’s what it’s all about.
Keesje, my friend, I like reading your “Airbus is the best thing in the skys” posts here and on airliners.net. I hope EADS is paying you very well. But, the bottom line has always been, with you, that you know nothing about Boeing airplanes. The B-747-8i is the next generation of the queen of the sky. The B-747 has always been a passenger favorite.
But, you fasination with Airbus products always being superior is very typical EU-ish. If Airbus is so superior, why do you always propose they begin selling A-330s and A-330Fs equipped with GEnx engines that come from the inferior B-747-8F/I?
The B-747-8 program has lost only one order, total. While the A-380 has lost 25, all A-380F models, and the wiring problems for the Whalejet continue, as Airbus can only kick about 6-8 of them out the door per year. They have yet to deliver a “normal” production version, as the 5 or 6 A-380s delivered are all overweight early production versions. It will be sometime in 2009 before they get to deliver the more normal version of the Whalejet, after the B-787-8 and B-747-8F enter service.
20. boeing investor | November 14th, 2008 at 9:36 am
Keesje - you love showing that Lufthansa comparison:
Why not read what else Lufthansa says about fuel burn instead of relying on an old website snapshot
“Just like the Airbus A380, the 747-8I will be a so-called three-litre (consumption per passenger/100km) aircraft”, he (Dr. Karl Echtermeyer who is responsible in the group Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Assessment department at Lufthansa) went on to say.
You’ll also know that Lufthansa has removed that ridiculous image off their site because its untrue.
Ed (comment above) also makes a valid claim about the GEnx engines being slapped under the outdated A330 to prolong its agonisic lifespan…
21. keesje | November 14th, 2008 at 10:43 am
“I hope EADS is paying you very well. But, the bottom line has always been, with you, that you know nothing about Boeing airplanes.”
You don’t know. Maybe I did big projects on 747, 737, 767 and know scores of Boeing people
“It will be sometime in 2009 before they get to deliver the more normal version of the Whalejet, after the B-787-8 and B-747-8F enter service.”
Hmm I think few people still believe that.
http://www.gadling.com/2008/11/05/boeing-to-push-back-787-first-flight-deliveries/print/
“The B-747 has always been a passenger favorite.”
Nobody is denying that. But times are changing.
About fuel, the 747-8i looks good only if you take the ridiculous “typical” 468 seat Boeing configuration. In Apple to apple comparisons the A380 comes out on top & the airlines know. Thats why the 747 got 1 passenger order since 2002. Wether Fleetbuzz likes it or not is a different issue..
Time will tell if the 747-8i will survive the coming cost cutting rounds at Lufthansa and Boeing.
22. boeing investor | November 14th, 2008 at 11:24 am
About fuel, the 747-8i looks good only if you take the ridiculous “typical” 468 seat Boeing configuration. In Apple to apple comparisons the A380 comes out on top & the airlines know.
——
Oh c’mon Keesje - you can do better than that.
Airbus promoted the A380 as a 555 seat airplane, now its down to 525.
Not a single operator aside from Emirates will make use of that much vaunted and equally much wasted 50% extra floor space!
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2007/05/08/213728/airbus-reduces-a380-seat-count.html
Airbus knows the A380 cant cut it, heck thats why their marketing department even went so far as to reduce the 747-8I seat count to just 405!
23. Chris C | November 14th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
Please could we try to keep the comment section of this article as professional as possible, and instead of turning this into a mud-flinging match as which airplane is better, rather supply solid comments, either supplying constructive criticism or praise, backed up with fact. The majority of the comments are really good, even one or two of Keesje’s are good, but before this section ventures south, which it seems on the brink of doing, let’s keep it fair game guys.
Keesje, you do supply some good points (at times) and it’s enjoyable countering your statements, but you’ve got to let that false Lufthansa fuel claim comparison graphic go as it is out-dated. Even if you think it is “gold”, remember a few things: The 747-8I fuel figure is 3,5lts/pax/100km and the A380 is 3,4lts/pax/100km for the A380 in Lufthansa’s “presumed” specifications. Lufthansa is set to configure some of their 747-8Is to 405ca seats, and some at 420 and others at 440 depending on equipment chosen by Lufthansa.
So, for argument sake, their -8Is will seat 405 passengers in 3-classes. That’s 62 seats less than the Boeing specification. In Boeing’s specification, it’ll consume 2,6lts/pax/100km, so Lufthansa has indicated a figure of 3,5lts or 0.9lts/pax/100km greater. It’ll fly a range of 13,500km in Lufthansa’s config.
However, their A380, configured with 549 seats, will consume 3,4lts/pax/100km and fly a range of 12,000km. So, the A380 will consume 0,5lts/pax/100km more fuel than what Airbus displays, yet still carry 24 more passengers than what Airbus works on.
Clearly, the 747-8I is the more efficient design, hence Boeing’s repeated enphasis on the -8I being 10% lighter/seat than the A380. The 747-8I is structurally a more fuel-efficient airplane. Remember, the -8I is also carrying significantly less fuel and more cargo than the A380 as well.
Remember one other thing, no one can talk about seat counts on the -8I without a seating layout diagram, so it’s premature of Airbus to say in their calculations, the -8I is a 405 seat airplane.
24. Steve | November 16th, 2008 at 7:07 am
@Boeing Investor
The A330 is so outdated it’s sold more than the 787 AND 777 combined this year!
25. boeing investor | November 16th, 2008 at 8:37 am
Steve
Yes we know the A330 has had more orders. Airbus equally has had more cancelations this year and I would not be surprised to see at least 5-10% of the A330 backlog canceled too.
I could be wrong. But I doubt it. 100+ canceled orders in ‘08 and going strong…
You will also note that sales do not mean much without profit, and you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who believes Airbus has made more money with its A330 line than Boeing has with either the 777 or 787.
But I digress…
26. Steve | November 18th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
@Boeing investor,
Why don’t you can tell us how much profit Boeing has made from the 777 and Airbus from the A330 so we can see for ourselves? And how much profit have they made on the 787? Oh that’s right, they’re still pouring money at it like a drunken gambler desperate for snake-eyes.
27. boeing investor | November 19th, 2008 at 10:13 am
Steve - I cant speak for Airbus’ figures - however, you seem oblivious to the $25bn+ Airbus is pouring into the A350.
Ask any respected analyst and they’ll tell you thats probably double what Boeing is/has spent on the 787.
28. Steve | November 19th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
Boeing investor - You seem to have failed to answer my question. It wouldn’t be because you can’t actually produce figures to back up your claims would it?
29. boeing investor | November 19th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
No Steve, didn’t fail to answer you question.
I cant draw a comparison since I do not have them. hope that clarifies things.
30. Steve | November 19th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Boeing investor, so when you did make a comparison, it was basically with no verifiable knowledge? In other words, your opinion, presented as fact.
That does clarify things. Thanks.
31. boeing investor | November 19th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
I know Boeing’s figures, but they alone would be pointless since I just said I dont have Airbus’ figures (which I erronously forgot to put in the last reply!)
My bad!
32. Chris C | November 27th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
Article Update:
Boeing’s firm order book for the new, advanced 747-8 family comprises of 78 firm orders for the 747-8F, 20 firm orders for the 747-8I, 8 firm orders for the 747-8VIP variant in the BBJ division and a commitment for 4 Boeing 747-8Is. Boeing has had a total GROSS ORDER tally of 109 orders. Two 747-8Fs and a single 747-8VIP order were cancelled/deferred.
Sales campaigns are progressing steadily for further orders for the -8F, -8I and -8VIP. Current fluctuating fuel prices, the global financial crisis, fluctuating passenger loads, and recent terrorist attacks in India are causing market demand for 400seat and larger airplanes to decline…the 400seat and larger market is a very high risk market to venture into in this current climate.
Note: It is thought that the -8’s wing will be even more aerodynamically efficient than current projections. There’s a range increase rumoured…
33. Steve | November 27th, 2008 at 11:44 pm
“Sales campaigns are progressing steadily”
You keep saying that, but we’re not seeing those “steady campaigns” result in actual sales are we?
34. Chris C | November 28th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
Steve:
Boeing was very close to selling nearly a dozen 747-8Is to airline customer this year. We’ve also seen Arik Air join the -8 party (somewhat), and we’ve seen 4 747-8VIP orders this year, with one cancellation. I’d say the sales campaigns have been progressing steadily.
Boeing is involved in a few other campaigns, and these are progressing…the airlines are still weighing up options, and I’m hopeful that in the next few months we’ll see another -8I firm customer.
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