British Airways Flirts With Big Boeing Twin

Since the September 2007 deal that saw British Airways ordering Airbus A380’s and Boeing 787’s, speculation about how the remainder of the carriers fleet would be replaced and by which aircraft has been ongoing.

A month ago, the airline announced that it had more than doubled its full year profits, it equally warned that the rising cost of fuel would mean that the next twelve months would be “challenging”.

British Airways still has four Boeing 777-200ER’s on order, due for delivery from 2009.

One key aspect in the press release last month finally seems to have caught the attention of the airline/aerospace discussions arena in that there is a distinct possibility that in lieu of both the writing off of one 777-200ER that crashed at London Heathrow in January 2008 and due to the delays in the delivery of the 787 Dreamliner, British Airways has been considering a purchase of 777-300ER’s to augment its fleet and offset projected shortfalls in capacity.

“Our fleet order has considerable flexibility that will allow us to match our future capacity to the economic environment.“

Image courtesy of Boeing

With a fleet of 57 operational 747-400’s, these jets will be replaced in part with the A380. Much of today’s 777-200ER fleet will eventually be phased out with the arrival of the 787-8 and 787-9. Given that the A350-1000 is struggling to keep a hold of Emirates as one of only two customers against a backdrop of increased weight and decreased range while sporting an inferior maximum structural payload against the 777-300ER, the reality is that BA has the opportunity to convert those existing 777-200ER orders into 777-300ER’s and take advantage of the benefits from the biggest, most sought after widebody twin-engined airplane on the market today.

Indeed, having the benefit of being able to haul more freight works in favour for British Airways - Emirates has already been none too pleased that the A350-1000, despite offering lower fuel burn has a six ton inferior hauling capability to the 777-300ER - between 2009 and the service entry of the A350-1000, many airlines, including BA will be able to offset the then higher fuel burn of the big Boeing twin with added revenue from being able to carry six or more tonnes on each and every flight made.

Does that mean the A350-1000 has been closed out?

Not at all.

With just two customers and 40 orders, BA could easily negotiate slots for the big Airbus twin. Given the conservative nature at British Airways, the carrier seldom signs up for an airplane that has not sold as well as it has been marketed, touting efficiency and all things “green” to placate the environmentalists. This played part of the reason why last year the carrier opted against the 747-8I, which to date only has Lufthansa as a major airline customer - although it is widely known that the deft Airbus pricing is what ultimately secured the A380 order as opposed to “worrying” about being one of a handful of 747-8I customers.

In stepping up the search for both interim lift as a result of the 787 being delayed and phasing out the older 747-400 fleet, the ability for the 777-300ER to fulfil BA’s mid-to-long term requirements is unsurpassed. Given the backlog of the 777 models, a premium customer like BA holds all the cards to play to its advantage.

An announcement could be made at next months Farnborough Air Show. It’s not a question selecting one airplane over another. Rather, it’s weighing up the risks of not securing the most sought after 777 model in anticipation of something newer in the A350-1000.

By definition, if the A350-1000 was something worth waiting for, like the 787, we’d see a lot more than just 40 orders for it.

That thought will not be lost on British Airways either.

3 comments June 16th, 2008