747-8 Gets Going
Today’s YouTalk entry is kindly supplied by my colleague, Chris Cook.
747-8 Gets Going
Boeing always knew that when it ‘re-entered’ the 400 seat and larger mega-jet arena with a radically improved 747, that the new 747-8I wouldn’t be a “barn-burner” in terms of orders.
When Boeing launched the 747-8I officially on 14th November 2005, the Airbus A380-800 super-jumbo had already been on offer for five years, and further, had already lapped up most of the orders from airlines that required a larger airplane than the 416-seat 747-400.
Image courtesy of FleetBuzz Editorial.com
Whilst some may argue that Boeing, during that time, had offered various other 747 offerings such as the 747-400XQLR and the 747X studies and failed to garner any orders or reach launch stage, there was no radical GEnx engine offering on those 747s.
Further, aerodynamic and structural technology now being incorporated on the 747-8 was still in the early stages of advancement, and thus any upgrade to the 747-400 was seen as too warmed over.
Image courtesy of GE
Boeing knew that they needed a radically improved 747-400, and only once those GEnx engine became available did the new 747 programme really take-off and make huge economic sense.
A senior source from one of the largest operators of the A380 commented that should Boeing have had the 747-8I on offer in early 2000, then no doubt the airline would have opted for it over the A380. Lufthansa, the launch customer for the -8I in December 2006, commented even that once those GEnx came on-board the 747, the new 747-8 “started to make economic sense”, according to Nico Buchholz, Lufthansa’s senior vice president-corporate fleet.
Since the launch of the 747-8, critics have been quick to point out the very sluggish order intake for the 467-seat 747-8 Intercontinental. But, at the same time, they fail to note that not only has the A380 also had a very sluggish order intake, and very nearly lost the highly-controversial British Airways order to the 747-8I, but further the A380F program was shelved for a number of reasons and is likely never to be revived.
As reported a while back, the main reason why the A380 has secured follow-on orders is due to compensation deals with Airbus and the airlines. Indeed, before the second round of the A380 delays were announced, the likes of Singapore Airlines and Qantas were seriously eyeing the 747-8I, with the latter especially showing much enthusiasm for the model, and in fact praising it.
After the A380’s second delay announcement, the months that followed saw interest from these two carriers, in particular Qantas, dwindle for the -8I, with comments such as “tarted-up 747” echoing from Qantas…ironic as it once was: “Boeing’s claims on the 747-8I’s efficiencies, range and payload make the airplane very attractive to us, and we are very interested in the -8, there’s no doubt about that.”
However, looking ahead, the future certainly seems bright for the new 747-8I despite its somewhat sluggish sales so far. Boeing is already in deep discussions with between 7 and 10 airlines about the -8I, and already there’s been some success with Arik Air’s Letter of Intent to order 3.
Image courtesy of FleetBuzz Editorial.com
With the 747-8I, airlines have a radically improved 747-400 on offer, with exceptionally compelling economics and some stellar performance capabilities. No doubt the -8I shows its true colours as being a true 747-400 replacement as well as a complement to the A380 in certain airline fleets.
It was never Boeing’s intention with the -8I for it to be a direct, head-on competitor with the A380, but rather an attractive alternate to the higher risk A380. If Boeing opted to compete directly with the A380 on a size scale, the -8I would have well and truly been the same size as the proposed 747-600X, and thus had an all-new wing. Boeing’s customer driven decision to opt for the 76,3m long 747-8I and its 467-seat configuration was to address the 400 seat to 500 seat market gap, and they’ve done it beautifully with the optimised -8I. Burning between 2,6lts/pax/100km and 2,8lts/pax/100km in a Boeing ruled performance envelope, the new 747 is the most fuel-efficient airplane in the large arena.
Whilst Lufthansa’s displayed figures for their 747-8Is are estimated around 3,5lts/pax/100km, this is in part due to their opting for around 405 seats. However, it is pertinent to note that in an Airbus ruled performance envelope for the 525-seat A380, that airplane should burn 2,9lts/pax/100km but Lufthansa has also estimated that in fact it will be closer to 3,3lts/pax/100km.
This year and next, it is widely expected that the 747-8I will garner more airline customers and orders based on the assumption that the airlines will conclude their 747-400 replacement studies, with a quite a few falling in favour of the -8I.
Rule-of-thumb dictates that a prime age to replace commercial airplanes is after 20-years of being in service, and in this case, the 747-8I is timed perfectly to capture the first large wave of 747-400’s reaching the 20-year age mark and needing replacement.
In fact, from 2010 through to the end of 2013, some 210 747-400s will reach the 20-year age. The second large wave will occur from 2017 through to 2019. This falls in-line with the entry-into-service of the 747-8I.
Christopher Cook
Pilot and Boeing 747-400/-8 Enthusiast
Johannesburg, South Africa
15 comments June 5th, 2008
