Dialogue With Dunlop

March 3rd, 2008

Its not everyday you get to mix with important people, so getting the opportunity to do just that with one of the world’s most respected aerospace reporters was a treat indeed.

The Daily Herald’s prominent and prolific female reporter is none other than Michelle Dunlop. Her blog contains a delightful blend of fun filled facts as well as comprehensive airline and aerospace news which I peruse each and every day.

Michelle’s blog has a huge following, not just up in the Pacific Northwest, but across the globe too.

Michelle and I had been planning to do a joint entry for a while now and (finally) it’s here to be shared by the readership. It’s not as long as we would have hoped, but there’ll be ample opportunity to reconvene shortly when the leading lady of aerospace has some extra time to spare!

• Do you envisage Airbus plugging the gap between its 350-seat A350-1000 and the 525 seat A380 with a new airplane?

I don’t see it being a priority for Airbus in between bringing the A350 to market and beginning work on an A320 replacement. The airplane on the market that plugs the gap is Boeing’s 747, and as you note, it isn’t selling well. Airbus forecasts a demand for only 584 new 400-seat aircraft in the next 20 years. However, Airbus keeps saying “bigger is better” in every market segment.

• Since 2005, both Airbus and Boeing have secured very large orders across their product lineups – the 747-8 Intercontinental has not sold as well as other Boeing widebodies – what are your thoughts on why sales have been lacklustre compared to the 747-8F and do you see its prospects improving during 2008?

The 747-8 Freighter will continue to do well – it doesn’t have a solid competitor. The Intercontinental does. Airbus hasn’t been able to convince many carriers its A380 is well-suited for cargo, but it has won over airlines looking for a passenger plane. Boeing’s 747 customers simply could be opting for mid-size jets or waiting to see how the A380 performs. Boeing is courting Intercontinental customers. Perhaps if it grabs a couple major wins for the passenger version, more will follow.

• Boeing is encountering various issues on the 787. Within five years, Airbus will be producing its own largely composite A350 although will use panels, not a monolithic structure. Do you think Airbus will equally encounter difficulties on the A350 as Boeing has on the 787?

History shows that most new airplane programs run into some sort of delay. Add in a new production process and it’s probably a safe bet that Airbus will see its share of difficulties. If Airbus is listening to Boeing’s account of its troubles, then it should pick up important tips on managing major suppliers, which seems to be a key issue that Boeing has grappled with on the 787.

• Scott Carson late on in 2007 talked up the 737RS (Replacement Study). With Airbus already investing heavily in the A380 and struggling to find funds for the A350, does it run the risk of not pouring enough resources into an A320 replacement, despite having a hefty backlog? With a Boeing 737RS entering service say, circa 2016+, would you expect some Airbus customers to switch to a more efficient airplane if there is no A320 replacement?

Certainly, there’s a risk for Airbus, but there’s also only so much it can do. If Boeing can get a leg up in the single-aisle market, it puts Airbus in a difficult position. Scott Carson has said that Boeing won’t come out with a 737 replacement until it understands what the customers want it to improve. Should Boeing figure it out before Airbus, then it could steal away some customers. However, that all depends on how quickly Airbus responds.

• What big orders/campaigns do you envisage Airbus and Boeing winning this year after a stunning 2007 sales period?

I think we’ll continue seeing a steady stream of orders out of the Asia-Pacific region. And, as both Airbus and Boeing maintain, the U.S. carriers will have to get in the game eventually.

I’d like to take this opportunity to offer and convey my thanks to Michelle for making this informative discussion possible and look forward to doing so again.

In the meantime, we look forward to her popping down to Paine Field when the first Boeing 787 takes to the air so we can share in her photographic skills too!

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