Boeing 787 Guidance
February 15th, 2008
Over the last three months, Boeing has revised the schedule for its most ambitious airplane project in years, the 787 Dreamliner.
As of writing and in reference to comments made by Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO, Scott Carson at last weeks 29th Annual Aerospace/Defense Conference hosted by Cowen & Company in New York, major sections of the second flight test Boeing 787 have arrived at Everett for final assembly.
Image courtesy of Boeing
Furthermore, Boeing has confirmed to me that the second airplane will not be the first to fly, despite having sections arrived in Everett with markedly less travelled work than on the first 787. Boeing says the plan remains that Airplane #1 will be the first to fly later this year.
The 787 that made its debut premiere on July 8, 2007 will indeed be the first to fly given that it is far closer to flight test readiness than airplane number two is.
As April 2008 approaches, many Wall Street analysts will be looking to the company to provide guidance on the revised schedule for the 787 deliveries which had been revised from 112 airplanes to 109 by the end of 2009 prior to the second delay.
Based on information already accessible in the public domain, it is thought that Boeing will revise its target for the end of 2009 to around 40-50 787’s ready for delivery. There are numerous 787 assemblies currently taking place around the globe and it is envisaged that these will start to arrive on a more regular basis to the final assembly line in Everett once the first test airplanes vacate the factory.
Image courtesy of moonm
Analysts at Bank Of America had already revised their projection forecasting “100 planes in 2009 to 50.” As of publication, challenges on the 787 remain.
As originally noted here, power on slipped from the end of January 2008 to the start of the second quarter. Reaching the power on milestone still remains elusive. Carson had already alluded to the investor conference last week that first flight could be the “end of June, or the first week of July” - again this ties in well with the initial guidance provided here that taxi tests in mid-to-late June will push first flight out into early the following month- I envisage based on current information that first flight could indeed occur before the Farnborough Air Show, which commences July 14, 2008.
Image courtesy of Spirit Aerosystems
This ties in well with guidance offered by Rob Stallard who notes the following:
“Boeing continues to address challenges associated with assembly of the first airplanes, including start-up issues in our factory and in our extended global supply chain. The company expects the first flight to occur around the end of the second quarter of 2008, with first delivery in early 2009.”
Work with the FAA progresses smoothly and barring any major anomalies during the flight test program, Boeing has already completed much of the compliance issues in preparation for evaluation and certification prior to service entry by the end of the first quarter of 2009.
Image courtesy of Boeing
In the interim, Boeing is undertaking negotiations with customers affected by the 787 delays - it is thought that any production increase will occur late on in 2009, allowing for a possible resumption by the end of 2010 to deliver upwards of 75 787’s.
Much of these targets depend on the April 2008 program scheduling, but from the information available Boeing will look to speed the production up after consultation with key partners and suppliers to avoid any repeat of the late 1990’s snarl ups that left many airplanes incomplete and short of parts.
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10 Comments Add your own
1. Oh Dear | February 15th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Stinks to high heaven of another delay
2. Ron Sposato | February 15th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
I have no idea why someone would say this “stinks to high heaven of another delay”, soulnds to me like what I would expect to be said with all the “public looking over the shoulder”.
I personally would never, guarantee anything, in this environment.
3. Chris Wallace | February 15th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
At least the suppliers are getting more comfortable and capable with their deliveries. Yes, they have had plenty of spare time to work on LN002 and beyond, but with practice comes performance so as they work on later ship-sets, they should be getting closer and closer to the original goal of shipping complete units.
It would be important for PR purposes if nothing else to have LN001 in the air in time for the Farnborough Air Show. While she won’t be able to attend in person, having videos of her tooling around Mt. Rainier playing in the Boeing Chalet won’t be a bad thing.
4. jimc | February 15th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
My guess is when power on occurs the sigh of relief will be so big that nobody will care about delays. Also, once the firest 50 are flying in 2009, all will be forgiven.
Nice write-up. Thanks.
5. keesje | February 15th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
“Boeing will revise its target for the end of 2009 to around 40-50 787’s ready for delivery. ”
Taking everything into account, doesn’t this sound slightly optimitic to at least some observers?
6. Johnny Stick | February 15th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
So my question is this, in the past has Boeing or McDonnell-Douglas delivered an airliner to schedule at this equivalent point in the 787 development cycle? To give Boeing credit, the pieces for the later planes seem to be flowing through the various factories at an accelerating pace.
7. dUb | February 16th, 2008 at 1:32 am
My father-in-law [with over 25 yrs at big B] blew me away with this tidbit of info several months back: Boeing has never been late on new program launch first delivery, prior to the 787.
I guess because it seems to always happen to the defense sector and Airbus, I’d thought it an industry constant.
8. Otmar Bender | February 16th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
It looks like they have pulled out a wooden mock-up on August 7 2007!
jaman@far-jar.com
9. Chris Wallace | February 18th, 2008 at 10:12 pm
40-50 deliveries in 2009 strikes me as completely doable. LN002 is now starting assembly in 40-26 and should take less time to complete thanks to the higher level of completeness of her ship-sets. And planes starting with LN005 are expected to arrive “complete” from the suppliers so final assembly should quickly ramp-up.
That Boeing is expanding the use of the San Antonio facility to do final preparation prior to delivery leads me to believe that they expect to have multiple planes ready for customer delivery as soon as the flight-test and certification program is completed, so a “four a month” equivalent delivery rate for 2009 sounds reasonable.
10. Boeing 787 Challenges &la&hellip | February 20th, 2008 at 4:16 am
[...] to the original guidance provided here last week (click here), it appears that Boeing will indeed target the deliveries for 2009 to be at the lower end of any [...]
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