Boeing 787 Guidance

Over the last three months, Boeing has revised the schedule for its most ambitious airplane project in years, the 787 Dreamliner.

As of writing and in reference to comments made by Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO, Scott Carson at last weeks 29th Annual Aerospace/Defense Conference hosted by Cowen & Company in New York, major sections of the second flight test Boeing 787 have arrived at Everett for final assembly.

Image courtesy of Boeing

Furthermore, Boeing has confirmed to me that the second airplane will not be the first to fly, despite having sections arrived in Everett with markedly less travelled work than on the first 787. Boeing says the plan remains that Airplane #1 will be the first to fly later this year.

The 787 that made its debut premiere on July 8, 2007 will indeed be the first to fly given that it is far closer to flight test readiness than airplane number two is.

As April 2008 approaches, many Wall Street analysts will be looking to the company to provide guidance on the revised schedule for the 787 deliveries which had been revised from 112 airplanes to 109 by the end of 2009 prior to the second delay.

Based on information already accessible in the public domain, it is thought that Boeing will revise its target for the end of 2009 to around 40-50 787’s ready for delivery. There are numerous 787 assemblies currently taking place around the globe and it is envisaged that these will start to arrive on a more regular basis to the final assembly line in Everett once the first test airplanes vacate the factory.

Image courtesy of moonm

Analysts at Bank Of America had already revised their projection forecasting “100 planes in 2009 to 50.” As of publication, challenges on the 787 remain.

As originally noted here, power on slipped from the end of January 2008 to the start of the second quarter. Reaching the power on milestone still remains elusive. Carson had already alluded to the investor conference last week that first flight could be the “end of June, or the first week of July” - again this ties in well with the initial guidance provided here that taxi tests in mid-to-late June will push first flight out into early the following month- I envisage based on current information that first flight could indeed occur before the Farnborough Air Show, which commences July 14, 2008.

Image courtesy of Spirit Aerosystems

This ties in well with guidance offered by Rob Stallard who notes the following:

“Boeing continues to address challenges associated with assembly of the first airplanes, including start-up issues in our factory and in our extended global supply chain. The company expects the first flight to occur around the end of the second quarter of 2008, with first delivery in early 2009.”

Work with the FAA progresses smoothly and barring any major anomalies during the flight test program, Boeing has already completed much of the compliance issues in preparation for evaluation and certification prior to service entry by the end of the first quarter of 2009.

Image courtesy of Boeing

In the interim, Boeing is undertaking negotiations with customers affected by the 787 delays - it is thought that any production increase will occur late on in 2009, allowing for a possible resumption by the end of 2010 to deliver upwards of 75 787’s.

Much of these targets depend on the April 2008 program scheduling, but from the information available Boeing will look to speed the production up after consultation with key partners and suppliers to avoid any repeat of the late 1990’s snarl ups that left many airplanes incomplete and short of parts.

10 comments February 15th, 2008