Narrowbody Airplane’s Big Engine Challenge
February 6th, 2008
For those of you who have had the opportunity to listen to my interview at the Dubai Air Show 2007 with Boeing’s VP Marketing, Randy Tinseth, you will have heard him speak about the challenges that lie ahead for both Boeing and Airbus when it comes to developing successors to the 737 and A320 families.
Right now, the engine technology is being defined, developed and tested to ensure the right levels of performance and efficiency gains can be attained to making these new next generation narrowbody airplanes more environmentally friendly and more comfortable for the flying public.
“It’s a very tough value proposition because both those airplanes are very, very efficient, so when you take a look at all the technologies that are available on the 787 and you scale those down, its pretty tough to make a convincing argument today both internally with our customers to replace the 737.”
Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Scott Carson reaffirmed that the 787 was leading the industry in breakthrough technology for customers and public - harnessing that experience and technology and applying to an all new narrowbody airplane is challenging enough - the engines that will eventually power these new generation narrowbody airplanes can be likened to a much sterner battle in itself.
“The technology suite for those engines….is just not there to make the replacement today.
We’re nominally focussing on mid next decade, 2015 or so, but I’ll tell you that the technology isn’t there today.
Over the next twenty years, thats a $1.2 trillion market and you just can’t get it wrong” Tinseth goes on to say.
Image courtesy of Boeing
US engine maker Pratt & Whitney has already begun work on its geared turbofan (GTF) engine demonstrator. Both the Mitsubishi Regional Jet and the Bombardier CSeries look likely to be powered by the GTF.
It comes as little surprise then that CFM engine partners, Snecma and GE also announced that they would have a new “green” engine available by 2015.
Airbus has stated that they would look at the 2017-2020 time frame for an A320 family replacement.
Both airplane manufacturers have big backlogs of existing A320’s and 737’s, without having to worry too much in the immediate future about new replacements.
However, big Boeing 737 customers like Southwest Airlines have already made their desires known - Air France and United Airlines, both large A320 operators have equally been vocal about the need for a new narrowbody airplane.
Image copyrighted and owned by BOEING777 and FleetBuzz.com
While Airbus’ plans are still quite a while away, Jim McNerney last year commented that “the introduction of composites has raised the ability of the airframe to make a difference . . . and really puts it on a par with the engine development.“
Southwest Airlines CFO, Laura Wright states that “it’s pretty clear what the airlines are looking for“.
In a recent seminar, EADS CEO Louis Gallois revealed his own personal opinion on the challenges faced by replacing the current narrowbody jets on offer.
The next generation of single aisle (airplanes) could be with a new concept of engines. If we want to get 15 percent reduction of fuel burn, we need a new concept of engines. Every engine manufacturer has his own solution. Some concepts are more advanced than others.
The next single aisle (jets) will be in composite. I think it’s partly fashion. But I am sure it will be a composite because everybody is thinking the new airline has to be in composite.
For single aisle, when you see the economics, the composite solution is not evident. Airlines want to have composite airplanes because it’s more modern, but it’s not an official position of EADS, it’s my own personal assessment.
Image courtesy of CFM
Gallois’ comments seemingly echo those of Tinseth - as time goes on, development and greater understanding of composite technology and usage will ultimately dictate whether the new generation of A320 and 737 replacements follow in the steps of the 787 and A350 families.
Regardless of whether the A320RS or 737RS gets into the air and in service first, demand for these two models will hinge largely on the engines being able to deliver at least 15% better all round performance and efficiency over the engines in service today.
Right now, thats a challenge being met by engine makers - the bigger issue may well be whether Airbus continues to offer more than one engine type or whether Boeing sticks to its sole engine supplier for their respective new narrowbody offerings.
Pratt & Whitney’s geared turbofan may not yet be ready for the marketplace, but the race to get under the wings is gearing up to be one of the most eagerly awaited since the three-way engine battle last seen on the Boeing 777.
Sphere: Related ContentEntry Filed under: Air Transport, Air Travel, Airbus, Airbus A320, Boeing, Boeing 737, Dubai Air Show 2007, Randy Tinseth, Richard Aboulafia
5 Comments Add your own
1. Boeing Investor | February 6th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Gallois is slightly idiotic. What engineering prowess does he have to unilaterally decide that composites are just fanciful and not good enough for smaller jets?
Stinks to high heaven of EADS not having the money to invest in the old A320 replacement, and the patents on composite manufacturing processes must have the Airbus legal team doing somersaults!
2. Chris Wallace | February 6th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
The benefit of CFRP to the next generation narrowbodies is not so much the lower weight but the increased strength and resistance to fatigue.
Simplistically speaking, CFRP has a “fatigue floor” at which point the material stops degrading. So for airlines that fly a large number of daily frequencies, they will be able to get more cycles out of their airframes and high-cycle airframes will need less maintenance and examinations so they’ll spend more time in the air making money.
Because CFRP can be more easily reinforced then Al, you can make your baseline model smaller and stretch it easier. So airplanes like the A318 or 737-600, instead of being “double shrinks” chained down with too much weight because you can only remove so much structure from them, you could conceivably start with them and scale upward all the way to the A321 and 737-900.
In practice, this will be unlikely, but a plane sized around the A319 and 737-700 would become the baseline (instead of the A320 and 737-800), so you need only shrink once (which helps control weight), but double stretches remain perfectly viable and do not incur large “MEW penalties”.
Engines will drive this market because both Boeing and Airbus executives are correct in noting that CFRP will only benefit the longest-ranged missions. With Pratt and Rolls both working on GTFs, they may combine forces within IAE to bring the best of both designs together to compete with CFM’s next-generation powerplant. The market is large enough to support three or even four manufacturers, but since IAE and CFM have been very successful on the A320 and 737, the desire to keep them together for the A320RS and 737RS could be strong.
3. keesje | February 7th, 2008 at 10:21 pm
Boeing investor: “Gallois is slightly idiotic.” I don´t think so. He seems to be the CEO of #1 aircraft manufacturer.
I think Boeing and Airbus are both unwilling to invest in new aircraft. They have their hands full on new aircraft and an enormous narrowbody backlog.
Last year Boeing and Airbus were considering 2 variants to cover the 120-240 seat range. Possibly in cooperation with Embraer / Bomardier. The center of the market seems to be around 150 seats (2 class). A very optised variant would have to be there. Not a heavy one that can easily be stretch to 220 seats and 3000nm. That would make it much too heavy.
IMO a 5 abreast, stretched to 160 seats high bypass aircraft would outdo a conventional 130-210 seat family around 150-160 seats by a large efficiency margin..
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z160/keesje_pics/LRJ_Boeing_Embraer_Y1_narrow_bod-1.jpg?t=1202419180
Some basic Large Regional Jet (LRJ) itterations I did last yr with Henry Lam..
4. Southwest 2500 « BO&hellip | February 11th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
[...] so, with a healthy backlog and no sign of a 737 replacement before 2015 at the earliest, Southwest Airlines continues to build on its successful operational strategy with [...]
5. Johnny Stick | February 12th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
While I agree with EADS that engines are the major driver for economy, I think composites will be a must have. When the weight comes out of the airframe, this directly relates to more passengers or less fuel burn. I would suspect this would be more important on a short hop plan. Inaddition, when looking at the 787, the wing thickness seems to be much less than previous aluminum birds. If the a composite short hop plane can be made with a much thinner wing, then efficiency should go up dramatically. I think wing thickness (or lack thereof) would be more important than weight savings with a short hop composite bird.
Leave a Comment
Some HTML allowed:
<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>
Trackback this post | Subscribe to the comments via RSS Feed