747-8I Moves Ahead
January 31st, 2008
Ever since Lufthansa became the launch customer for the 747-8I back in December 2006, questions continue to be raised about just why the airplane is not being purchased by other airlines - not least because its cargo hauling sistership, the 747-8F continues to attract a far greater level of interest and orders too.
The sales lull almost vanished when British Airways had decided that it too would follow its European rival in placing an order for 747-8I’s. The airline then ordered A380’s after Airbus tabled a revised offer. As mentioned in the last entry, BA seems to have ruled out the 747-8I for a second time.
Interestingly, Lufthansa’s desire to acquire the 747-8I has not been diminished in the least despite being the only passenger airline to have ordered the type (save for a few VIP orders also secured for the airplane).
All images courtesy of Boeing
On November 6 2007, 11 months after the launch order, Boeing announced that it had completed firm configuration of the 747-8I.
Having had Emirates all but “demand” a shorter fuselage length for the 747-8I rejected, Lufthansa has the added benefit of defining its own needs to match that of the airplane’s capability as the sole customer and with minimal interference from those customers who have asked, but not yet bought the 747-8I.
Indeed, it has been and erroneously continues to be suggested that Lufthansa will cancel or change the 747-8I order into something else. Given that prior to the firm configuration being reached just over two months ago, Lufthansa would have had ample opportunity to do what these sceptics perhaps incorrectly predict.
Moving forward, Lufthansa will not only have a unique position in being able to tailor the 747-8I to suit its operations, the very fact that Boeing itself rejected overtures from Emirates to offer two fuselage lengths speaks volumes.
Equally, naysayers had incorrectly asserted that the 777F and 747-8F projects would suffer due to the ongoing 787 development.
With the 787 having been delayed for a second time, resources across these three programs are not as stretched as some would falsely have us believe.
The 777F which commenced major assembly on January 29, 2008 will have a much shorter flight test program given that its sibling, the 777-200LR has already contributed to much of the analysis and testing required for certification. Assembly on the first 747-8F is not due to commence until the end of 2008 - leaving Lufthansa and Boeing to work unhindered on finalising the 747-8I prior to eventual service entry in late 2010.
Without doubt it must be concerning for Boeing that the 747-8I has not sold as well as other models in the portfolio - especially since the company has had three consecutive years of quadruple digit orders. While every 747-8I order can be translated into one less for the larger Airbus A380, one customer for the 747-8I in VIP guise tells me that despite a slow start in sales it “has the potential to be a money spinner“.
One thing is for sure, Lufthansa is not giving up on the 747-8I as some mistakenly believe.
Sphere: Related ContentEntry Filed under: Aeroplane, Aerospace, Air Transport, Air Travel, Airbus, Airlines, Airplane, Airplane Order, Airplanes, Airport, Airports, Boeing, Boeing 747-8, Boeing 747-8F, Boeing 747-8I, Boeing Orders, Lufthansa, Randy Tinseth, Richard Aboulafia, Travel
15 Comments Add your own
1. keesje | January 31st, 2008 at 1:35 pm
I guess Lufthansa does not give up any order & supports it until the moment they formally break it open. That’s how it works. Nothing is sure, companies adjust.
In another forum an LH employee stated ” that as long as we won’t see some 748I orders in 2008 we also won’t see a 748I in LH colours”
Problem is if you stick to official statements you’re not 1 but 2 steps behind whats happening.
McNerney told analysts that the manufacturer is in discussions with 10 prospective customers for the 747-8I and he expects several sales to materialize this year.
But isn’t that what we have heard for more then 3 years now?
news is slow on the 747-8i..
http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&um=1&tab=wn&q=boeing+747-8i&btnG=Search+News
Lets hope more orders follow & we’ll be able to fly the 747’s for decades to come.
Otherwise Boeing perhaps can spend then resources in a more proffitable way on 787-10, 777NG, Y3 or 737 replacements.
I suggeted a new 773 / 747 replacement elsewhere, google “Boeing Ecoliner”
2. Boeing Investor | January 31st, 2008 at 1:37 pm
While the freighter brings in money, sales or otherwise of the passenger jet become irrelevant.
One company is focusing market share, this company is watching its bottom line.
3. keesje | January 31st, 2008 at 2:01 pm
Boeing investor said: “One company is focusing market share, this company is watching its bottom line.”
I think the airlines decided with their checkbooks and the market situation might be such that one company might be ready now to give unprecedented “strategic” discounts for ordering its VLA design.
4. Jacobin777 | January 31st, 2008 at 4:14 pm
Keesje states:”in another forum an LH employee stated ” that as long as we won’t see some 748I orders in 2008 we also won’t see a 748I in LH colours””
..why does it make a difference? There are other B748I orders anyway…..
LH is going to get the plane they want…probably better than what the contract guarantees….
5. Chris Wallace | January 31st, 2008 at 5:03 pm
LH did not order the plane in a vacuum and some four decades ago, they launched an airframe that they were the only customer for two years and whom Boeing only sold 30 copies - the 737-100. So I remain convinced that LH will keep their order.
What I cannot fathom is *why* they ordered it. Not because I think the 747-8I is terrible, but because I remain unable to figure out how it fits in LH’s fleet. While LH has not released an actual seat map for the 747-8I, their VP for Fleet Planning has noted in a presentation that the plane will seat around 410. In working with others on a seat-map, the only way that works is if LH replaces the 28 Business Seats between Doors 2 and 3 with 70 Economy seats. So F goes from 16 to 24, C drops from 80 to 66, and Y goes from 234 to 324 (since you also get 2 additional rows of Y with the back plug).
For a time, I though this might mean the 747-8I would serve as an A340-600 replacement - with the A340-600s replacing the A340-300s. The 747-8I would add 16F, 6C and 86Y to an A346. However, now there are rumors that LH has chosen the A350-800 and A350-900 to replace their A340-300s and A330-300s and will announce the order this July.
Since I don’t really see demand for LH First Class growing all that fast (their A388 will likely only have 12 F seats), perhaps the 747-8I will become the “Upgrader Special”. LH can oversell C by 8-24 (depending on how many empty F seats they have) and just give a free upgrade to HON or Senator passengers. So that would take C from an actual 66 to an “effective” 90. And any revenue C passenger with status would seek out the 747-8I because they’d have a shot at getting First Class for the same price depending on load-factors in Business. And they’d have plenty of extra Economy seats to take advantage of traffic growth in that segment.
6. Chris Wallace | January 31st, 2008 at 6:28 pm
Just a follow-on to my last comment.
Is LH going to want to stick with paired seats for First Class? Especially when most everyone else has moved or is moving to suites? LH has shown concepts of a “traditional” suite for First Class on their A380-800s, so what if they went with this?
It would allow LH to move First Class from the UD to the nose and allow them to fit 12 of them there. This would allow them to fit 34 Business Class seats on the UD (14 forward of the door and 20 aft) which, when combined with the 49 on the lower deck between Door 1 and Door 2 would give them 83 total C seats - three more then their 747-400s and 419 total seats.
LH has shown a sample configuration for their A380-800 with 12F / 100C / 410Y (510 total) so this would put a 100-seat gap between the 748I and A388.
7. boeing777 | January 31st, 2008 at 6:29 pm
>>In another forum an LH employee stated ” that as long as we won’t see some 748I orders in 2008 we also won’t see a 748I in LH colours” >>
Ironically the same thing was said on various ill informed sites during 2007. Did LH cancel? Nope.
8. Aurora | February 1st, 2008 at 1:38 am
While some may rubbish the 748I, the mere fact that it is being offered is a devastating blow to the profit margins of the A380 program. Wasn’t the business case for the A380 primarily centered on the fact that they would have a de facto monopoly in this segment? It is likely that Airbus/EADS did not think Boeing would respond with a low-development-cost competitor. Even if the airlines prefer the A380, they are going to play serious hardball with Airbus in negotiating a deal. The 748 has the VLA freighter market to itself and the 748I is killing the margins on the A380. The aircraft, which hasn’t even flow yet, is doing exactly what Boeing had in mind.
BTW, I suspect LH got a killer, Leahy-esque deal on the 748I. T
9. keesje | February 1st, 2008 at 10:20 am
I don’t think the B747-8i is killing the margins on the A380. Airlines that ordered the A380 probably did include the 747-8 as a bechmark only. But none (apart from surprise LH) took i.
The 747-8i was no surprise. Boeing tried the 747-400ER, ERX, -500,600, Advanced and -8i and 8i stretched. Airbus must have heard of it..
The 747-8i doesn’t have the heavy freight market for itself. The market will soon be spooled with 747-400 cargo conversions costing $70-80 mill. ask yourself what that will do with margins.
Boeing strategy was to sell twice as much passenger 8is as 8f freighters. Some went wrong down the road.
During the last few years poster were quick to point out Emirates was the big A380 supporter good for 50, 40, 30 25% of total orders & if they pulled the plug..
Now we have the 747-8i LH situation no one sees an issue ..
10. boeing777 | February 1st, 2008 at 10:37 am
“The 747-8i doesn’t have the heavy freight market for itself. The market will soon be spooled with 747-400 cargo conversions costing $70-80 mill. ask yourself what that will do with margins.”
Perhaps you overlook the fact that despite the 747-400 being replaced by the 777-300ER and A380, very few have gone on to be converted - yet customers have not be shy about ordering 747-8F’s.
You’re deluded if you think sales will dry up because of the 747-400’s availability. Its not the imaginary A380F we’re discussing here.
11. keesje | February 1st, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Boeing 747 conversion lines were set up in Asia and Israel.
Airlines held on to their 747s because they needed them during an economic boom and the a380 being delayed by two years.
Now times are changing..
12. boeing777 | February 1st, 2008 at 1:02 pm
The 747 conversions in Taiwan et al have been there a while - but in the so-called changing times you allude to, neither has had any siginificant 747-400’s come their way for conversion.
And again, you overlook the fact that despite all this the 747-8F continues to sell rather well - regardless of these changing times where ironically 747-400 conversions are evidently not eroding the demand for new build freighters in the least.
13. keesje | February 2nd, 2008 at 12:23 am
B777 I´m not making this up, its simply happening.
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?channel=awst&id=news/aw102306p3.xml
http://www.atwonline.com/magazine/article.html?articleID=2104
14. boeing777 | February 2nd, 2008 at 8:47 am
Keesje - from your second link:
“…estimate is that 150-200 BCFs will be produced over the first 20 years of the program.”
And how many 747-8F’s are on order?
15. keesje | February 2nd, 2008 at 10:05 pm
80 since launch in 2005, 31 last years. Absolutely booming..
The ones converted by TAECO (incl Boeing) are the BCF´s.
747´s converted by Bedek are converted 747-400F (supported by GE..) not Boeing Converted Freighters..
Likely other manufacturers will join the party (e.g. ST Aero).
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