Advantage: BA

Since the September 2007 order, British Airways has rarely been out of the media spotlight.

From the news in early January 2008 that the carrier was to press ahead with its own new premuim off-shoot, OpenSkies to the recent Boeing 777-200ER crash landing to the countdown to the big move over to Terminal 5 - British Airways is certainly walking into the competitive arena with a renewed sense of being able to raise its game and rise to the challenge.

Having ordered a plethora of Airbus A380’s and Boeing 787’s, CEO Willie Walsh took time out to share his thoughts on the second phase of the ongoing fleet renewal project the airline is undertaking.

An order may occur by the end of 2008.

“Quite honestly I don’t think we’ll be going back to look at the 747-8 again. I wouldn’t rule it out completely but, no, I don’t think so.”

With a fleet of 57 Boeing 747-400’s to replace, the A380-800 certainly gives weight to the strategy of maximising slot usage at an already slot-constrained Heathrow Airport - an airport that will get even busier as Open Skies takes effect this Spring.

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With the A380 winning part of the BA order after Airbus tabled a revised offer just days before the 747-8I deal was due to be firmed up by the BA Board, BA’s next target is to fill the void beneath its A380 fleet, while having an airplane family sized larger than the current 777-200ER family, of which it has four due for delivery in 2009.

“…we felt we needed greater clarity in terms of the Airbus A350 XWB and Boeing’s plans in relation to the 777“.

Incidentally, this was the same reason the airline rejected out of hand the A350 in the first order made last September, largely on the basis that since the A350XWB relaunch at the Farnborough Air Show in 2006, Airbus had done very little to stabilise and clarify the airplane to the British Airways board.

While the last Boeing 777’s ordered by the carrier were to be powered with Rolls Royce Trent 800 engines, unlike the first batch that were powered by the GE90, BA is understood to be leaning towards the 777-300ER, exclusively powered by the GE90-115B engine as an interim solution until the A350-1000 variant and possible 787-10 are more fully defined.

It is not yet clear whether British Airways would take 777-300ER’s on lease or place an entirely new order. What is clear is that the airline is still not satisfied with what is currently on offer.

The bigger question is not whether British Airways selects one over the other - given the setbacks faced by the 787 so far, will Boeing be prepared to gamble on a fourth model in the 787-10, or move to supplant the existing 777 longer range family with an all new airplane - one that will perhaps be more attractive to those customers who have thus far shied away from the 747-8I.

As we know, engine technology has not yet matured enough for either Airbus or Boeing to launch a new range of narrowbody airplanes - part of the the key to an all new A350 rival and true 777 replacement also lies in the availability of more efficient engines.

The level of urgency to secure BA’s order will not be lost on either manufacturer - neither one will want to miss out.

It’s a question of whose product fits the bill better. Right now, neither has an advantage over the other.

10 comments January 29th, 2008