Boeing 787 First Flight To Be Pushed Back
January 11th, 2008
The December 11 media briefing introduced new 787 program manager Patrick Shanahan. Just as the Airbus A380-800 was rarely out of the media spotlight, the 787 Dreamliner continues to attract headlines from all corners of the Earth.
Patrick Shanahan had stated that all efforts were focused on getting Airplane number one complete and ready to turn power on by the end of January 2008.
Wall Street analysts think that this unlikely to be achieved.
On January 30, 2008, Boeing announces its quarterly earnings. This date would be indicative of any changes to the 787 program.
Based on discussions from various financial analysts, there is growing consensus that the 787 Dreamliner timeline is going to alter for a second time.
This would directly impact four major events in airplane’s development.
Image courtesy of moonm
The first is that the event itself of power on has been earmarked for the last week of February 2008 says Morgan Stanley analyst, Heidi Wood.
Turning power on before this date would allow for the program to proceed as revised back in October 2007 on the basis that there are no more significant delays or anomalies with the flight test phase. As it stands, this is the optimistic view shared by few - the more realistic view is that the revised schedule will be amended.
Secondly and according at least one Wall Street analyst, the first flight is now penned in to take place early July 2007. If true, this would significantly change the face of the entire 787 program. It is possible that the February briefing will highlight this move and further push back the 787 service entry, currently planned for late November/early December 2008. A revised program would see service entry penned in for March or April 2009.
As a consequence of this, the third impact pertains to the actual flight test program itself. Service entry in 2009 allows for a much greater window of flight tests and will not require the alleged extra resource from the 747-8F or 777-200F, the latter of which will be heading into production, testing and service entry during 2008. Furthermore, initial concerns that the 787 would not be able to undertake full cold weather tests will be allayed.
Image courtesy of andyconniecox
The revised program would facilitate full cold soak tests in either Canada or Alaska during November 2008 through January 2009 and without the need for any ancilliary or special certification dispensation that may have been required if service entry is late this year - Arctic temperatures and winds are not as cold as they could be until the northern hemisphere year draws to a close and this would be ideal for testing the 787 during this time.
Finally, if these reports turn out to be true, the ambitious target of manufacturing 109 787 Dreamliners by the end of 2009 would also have been re-evaluated. It is anticipated that the original goal of 112 Dreamliners or thereabouts will be reinstated but the time frame in which this goal will be pushed out into the first quarter of 2010.
Image courtesy of Boeing
With the 787 Dreamliner backlog standing at 817 as at the end of 2007 and with no second production line in the pipeline, the production goal will not be as bold as previously envisaged.
Engine maker Rolls Royce is equally struggling to meet the specified performance goals on the Trent 1000. The company says that improvements are constantly being worked on, a service entry delay will ensure that launch customer All Nippon Airways takes delivery of the first 787 that meets all of the performance targets it had set out to achieve.
Rolls Royce has not responded to the question pertaining to the fuel burn issue on the Trent 1000 as at time of writing.
For the interim and as exclusively revealed right here, All Nippon Airways is thus far happy with the progress being made on this revolutionary airplane.
Having had the luxury of one of its most senior Boeing 777 pilots command a 787 simulator with no prior training is evidence enough that the relationship between the Japanese launch customer and Boeing remains in good stead and high spirits.
Sphere: Related ContentEntry Filed under: 787 First Flight, 787 Orders, 787 Premiere, 787 Rollout, Air Transport, Air Travel, Airlines, Airplane, Airplane Order, Airplanes, Airport, Airports, Boeing, Boeing 787, Boeing 787 Order, Boeing 787 Orders, Boeing 787 Premiere, Boeing 787 Rollout, Boeing Orders, Dreamliner, Dreamliner First Flight, Jet Travel, Randy Tinseth, Richard Aboulafia, Travel
22 Comments Add your own
1. keesje | January 11th, 2008 at 11:40 am
Boeing777 good for you to take journalistic freedom to do your own intepretations of alternative 787 progress scenarios & not wait for official statements.
Delaying the 787 further will be a PR / compensation / supply chain drama just like the A380. However taking a long term view it indeed opens up opportunities just like Airbus did with the A380. Enough time to do extensive world tours, get out all child deseases before entry into service, better prepare world wide after sales support etc.
Apart from that : for many airlines 787 delays are not as dramatic as a380 delays. There are enough aircraft take have the range & capasity to fill the gab. 757, 767, A330, A300, A340. They will keep them longer in service, lease them etc. and bill Boeing for the cost / benefit delta’s.
Most airlines are no sheep that fly blind on OEM sales talk. They had their people look at the 787 project and (internally) concluded it was a “sporty”, “agressive”, “ambitious” but in normal words “not realistic” time schedule & made their fleet plans / contracts include fall back scenarios.
So the Randy department better takes a brain storming week-end in the Rockies this week-end to come up with scenarios to manage market / public perception of the new situation, but the techies will probably be able to fix what they wanted to fix & make the delay valuable time.
2. Chris C | January 11th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
The super-efficient 787 Dreamliner certainly is an exceptionally complex airplane. We all know on just how revolutionary everything about this airplane is, so of course Boeing are going through a very steep, frustrating and at the same time, rewarding learning curve with the Dreamliner. As long as the airplane is safe and ready for flight then any delay would be well-worth the wait. I don’t feel that the delays will have any significant impact on orders, and moreover, the 817 orders booked already will remain. I still see over 1,000 orders for the airplane before year-end. I do wonder now that with flight-testing possibly being pushed back, and thus technical flight data also being interpreted later, how it will effect the 787-10 progress, if any?
3. Chip O. | January 11th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
Thanks for the update. Can you post a report on the true state of all of the aircraft in the testing program? Seems finishing these is part of the critical path. I thought they needed all of these in the air at roughly the same time to have enough flight hours to finish the flight tests in 8 months, baring major problems.
Chip
4. Chris Wallace | January 11th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
One year late. Two years late. It matters not.
The 787’s operating economics are so compelling at any time-frame from 4 years to 40 that airlines will snap up every single plane Boeing can build whenever they can build them.
Boeing tried to use a new production process they and their suppliers had no prior experience with, and they’re paying the penalty. But time is their friend, not their enemy, as every day an airline’s current costs rise just makes the 787 that much more desirable.
5. Boeing Investor | January 11th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
Thanks for this.
I’ve not seen any other reference towards the actual cold soak tests that need to be conducted on the Web - nor the ANA pilot tests of the Dreamliner simulator - thank you for those expose’s.
In addition, the key points you address are highly noteworthy. Only last week was I sat with one of my clients, who is a major 787 customer too and we discussed the issues noted here.
6. Andy | January 11th, 2008 at 10:11 pm
The whole 787 model was shared cost, shared benefit with regards to the suppliers. However, it has become very evident that many of the larger suppliers do not have the cash or financial reserves to continue to float the 787 program through multiple delays.
In order to ensure that all suppliers continue to be going concerns, my question is whether some sort of advance payment or equity enhancement will be provided in the near term to help assist these suppliers in the next year as shipments will be delayed
7. sciguy0504 | January 11th, 2008 at 10:25 pm
A balanced overview of what may happen in the future. Thanks for posting. I am disappointed to hear of yet another delay. I am of the opinion that Boeing management tried to rush this project and many people are now paying the price. It seems it was rushed to upstage Airbus and get a hold of the market (understandably) but, in my opinion, it points to bad management. However, I am glad to hear the delay will be of some benefit (cold weather testing and certs).
I hope this second delay is the final delay.
8. keesje | January 12th, 2008 at 12:00 am
“All Nippon Airways is thus far happy with the progress being made on this revolutionary airplane.”
I think a pilot flying a sim of a new aircraft is not a sign of deep friendship. Prior to EIS more then 50 pilots sat at the controls of the A380 (not the sim..) . And not only customer chief pilots but also prospects (John Travolta
) Airbus recognised flying the A380 for the first time made an unerasable impression even for folks with 25 yrs on the clocks. All had a smile from ear to ear for 24 hrs: invaluable.
9. boeing777 | January 12th, 2008 at 12:04 am
Keesje, if you have evidence to the contrary that All Nippon is displeased, please do share this intelligence.
Clearly, you have completely missed the point about a 777 pilot from ANA using a 787 simulator - unfortunately, your misguided comment is ample evidence of that.
10. keesje | January 12th, 2008 at 12:44 am
Yamato put out his neck and defended the Boeing 787 and the schedule in public.
http://www.domain-b.com/aero/20070517_nippon_airways.htm
Now he is going up for its second delay. Boeing was talking to ANA on the schedule a year ago.
http://www.radarvector.com/2006/11/ana-will-not-relax-boeing-order-plan.html
Boeing is probably talking to them on the 787-3. They seem to like the A380 better then the 747-8i.
They are not hanging in the hotel bar till 3 I guess. They probably want to talk about compensation.
11. Chris Wallace | January 12th, 2008 at 2:50 am
Andy, Boeing has been providing financial assistance to suppliers as needed. In return, Boeing gets the product at a lower rate.
Fortunately for Boeing, they cleared over $7 billion in free cash in 2007 alone, so they have plenty of money to throw at the 787 and her suppliers to ensure it gets into the air ASASP.
12. boeing777 | January 12th, 2008 at 9:51 am
Keesje, those links do not vindicate your assertion that relations between Boeing and ANA are sour.
On the contrary - they have been relatively good. Not least because there is a deal in place, but also because the airline is the launch customer, defining and refining the 787 for service entry.
I would suggest you listen to the comments Scott Carson made in the Dec 11 briefing about Boeing and its customers.
Again, I would ask you to provide something conclusive about the negative aspect of their relations and not articles of no relevance now in light of the delays encountered.
13. Dougloid | January 12th, 2008 at 8:31 pm
Don’t feed the troll, B777.
14. keesje | January 12th, 2008 at 10:29 pm
“I would suggest you listen to the comments Scott Carson made in the Dec 11 briefing about Boeing and its customers.”
Yamato as a CEO publicly defended the 787 and the planning after being ensured by the Boeing Board. Now he has to admit he was wrong to ANA stakeholders. Do you know Japanese culture?
:-/ Scott is one of the least imaginable objective persons as a reference in this case. He is paid not to be objective & manage perceptions for Boeing.
“We regret that delivery of the 787 will be delayed and we hope to keep the impact of it to a minimum,” an ANA spokeswoman told ABTN”
http://www.abtn.co.uk/ANA_regrets_787_slip
Lets be clear, for a Japanese company those are harsh words. ANA 787s are the first & will be the ones overweight.
So late & overweight. As you write a second delay only denied by Boeing itself.
Now Scott will off course keep saying everyone is happy and everything is under control. Still Boeing confirmed thursday the cockpit was kind of emty around x-mas and focusses on other things going great.
The people involved know what is windowdressing, what´s on the critical pad & where Boeing is bleeding. It´s a free choice on what one chooses to see & report and what not.
I expect the press to do what they showed on the A380. Not turn a blind eye, give the benefit of the doubt, be critical in a coaching way, pick out the positive elements only etc. etc.
15. boeing777 | January 12th, 2008 at 11:13 pm
I’m afraid you’re digressing too much:
You said:
“I think a pilot flying a sim of a new aircraft is not a sign of deep friendship.”
I asked that you show ANA’s displeasure, which has not materialized. Naturally, ANA is not “joyed” that the 787 will enter service later than planned, but to suggest, as you did, that relations are sour is off the mark.
Boeing and ANA antagonizing one another isn’t going to get the airplane sorted out any quicker. Quite, it is the opposite.
16. keesje | January 13th, 2008 at 1:11 am
Exactly, they are not antagonizing one another because they have to keep working together.
Concluding that the relationship between the Japanese launch customer and Boeing remains in good stead and high spirits is however pushing it IMO..
17. boeing777 | January 13th, 2008 at 7:44 am
I ask yet again then, that you provide evidence of this. Not links to old articles- systematic recent evidence of the relationship being as bad as you state.
18. keesje | January 13th, 2008 at 11:50 pm
“The delay is a blow to ANA, which was hoping to fly passengers to next summer’s Beijing Olympic Games in the initial planes of its planned 50-strong 787 fleet.”
http://airlineworld.wordpress.com/2007/10/11/boeing-787-delivery-delayed-by-6-months/
“A binge of design tweaks this fall had triggered a rapid weight gain, prompting lead customer All Nippon Airways (ANA) to privately warn Boeing last month it was “greatly concerned that the efficiency is at great risk because of the airplane’s heavy weight.”
Airlines such as the Japanese carrier are relying on the fuel-conserving 787 as a key to making money, and every pound of weight counts dramatically. One way to look at it: An airline flying the 787 its maximum range would have to take 10 passengers off the aircraft to make up for a 2,500-pound weight gain.”
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2002628489_boeing17.html
Now the aircraft they are getting are overweight..
“Boeing’s long-awaited 7E7 Dreamliner will be delivered on time, according to Mineo Yamamoto, president and chief executive of Japan’s All Nippon Airways (ANA). Yamamoto said that his airline and Boeing are in regular touch, and so far, there had been no talk about delays at Boeing’s end.
Boeing has stressed repeatedly that the prestigious 7E7 Dreamliner programme has not suffered from any delays, and that it would meet the all-important delivery commitment to ANA, its launch customer.
“There has been no talk about delays or anything like that,” Yamamoto said in an interview Monday in Copenhagen, Denmark with the Seattle Post-Intelligencer.”
http://www.domain-b.com/aero/20070517_nippon_airways.htm
Now Yamato is going up for the second big delay. He has to explain to his supervisory board if he didn´t inform them right or was misinformed by Boeing or the project is out of control.
What exactly makes you think the relationship between ANA and Boeing “remains in good stead and high spirits”?
Because Boeing says so? come on.. Is only a direct quote from ANA or Boeing good enough prove for you? We could start a discusson about that then..
19. boeing777 | January 14th, 2008 at 12:05 am
“What exactly makes you think the relationship between ANA and Boeing “remains in good stead and high spirits”?”
I’ll ask for a fourth and final time, if you have something to the contrary, please bring it forth. NOT links to old articles.
And no, its because “Boeing said so”. That should give you a clue.
20. Boeing 787 Encounters Sec&hellip | January 16th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
[...] As noted in the piece last week, stretching out and opening up the flight test program to enable service entry towards April 2009 will allow for critical cold weather soak tests to be conducted. [...]
21. Zed | January 17th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
I have always disagreed with this Editorial’s assertion that the recent ANA simulator trial is evidence ‘that the relationship between the Japanese launch customer and Boeing remains in good stead and high spirits’
Why - because it is simply a normal part of the Aircraft development process. Throughout the whole development of a new aircraft Customers are regularly invited to give feedback on the design of an Aircraft - incidentally this doesn’t stop once an aircaft is ‘developed’ as feedback from in-service aircraft is also solicited through various means.
Whilst you can argue that Keesje was speculating on the state of the relationship between Boeing and ANA. I believe it was un-necessary for this Editorial to be so defensive of it’s view and the stance adopted with Keesje counterview.
——
Now admitedly there have been large development over the past couple of days -
I believe the below quote from Kazuyuki Imanishi, ANA Spokesman provides a very clear statement on the relationship between the two companies:
“We are extremely unhappy,” he said.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.aspx?Feed=AP&Date=20080117&ID=8053382&Symbol=BA
Such a reversal of position surely suggests that the relationship was not very strong in the first place.
Just my personal observations on the matter.
22. boeing777 | January 17th, 2008 at 11:21 pm
“I believe it was un-necessary for this Editorial to be so defensive of it’s view and the stance adopted with Keesje counterview.”
On the contrary, ANA is undoubtedly annoyed and upset that it will not be getting its 787’s as planned - the bigger and overriding factor is getting an airplane that is botched.
Or do you disagree with that premise?
From your link:
“All Nippon Airways — in line to get the first plane — said it was “extremely unhappy” about the delay.”
With so much new and untested technology being used in the 787, ANA has been supportive throughout. Just because they are not stating it the press each day/week/month does not mean it isn’t privately being said.
As was the case with Qatar Airways which for example stated publically that it was unhappy with Airbus’ progress on the A350:
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2007/06/25/215129/qatar-airways-frustrated-by-lack-of-airbus-a350-xwb-technical.html
“For a launch customer we have been provided with remarkably limited information on the evolution of the A350 XWB design. “
Bear in mind QR’s comments were AFTER it formally ordered the A350XWB.
I would simply ask again, has ANA said anything like that in the last 4 years?
Leave a Comment
Some HTML allowed:
<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>
Trackback this post | Subscribe to the comments via RSS Feed