Boeing 787 First Flight To Be Pushed Back

The December 11 media briefing introduced new 787 program manager Patrick Shanahan. Just as the Airbus A380-800 was rarely out of the media spotlight, the 787 Dreamliner continues to attract headlines from all corners of the Earth.

Patrick Shanahan had stated that all efforts were focused on getting Airplane number one complete and ready to turn power on by the end of January 2008.

Wall Street analysts think that this unlikely to be achieved.

On January 30, 2008, Boeing announces its quarterly earnings. This date would be indicative of any changes to the 787 program.

Based on discussions from various financial analysts, there is growing consensus that the 787 Dreamliner timeline is going to alter for a second time.

This would directly impact four major events in airplane’s development.

Image courtesy of moonm

The first is that the event itself of power on has been earmarked for the last week of February 2008 says Morgan Stanley analyst, Heidi Wood.

Turning power on before this date would allow for the program to proceed as revised back in October 2007 on the basis that there are no more significant delays or anomalies with the flight test phase. As it stands, this is the optimistic view shared by few - the more realistic view is that the revised schedule will be amended.

Secondly and according at least one Wall Street analyst, the first flight is now penned in to take place early July 2007. If true, this would significantly change the face of the entire 787 program. It is possible that the February briefing will highlight this move and further push back the 787 service entry, currently planned for late November/early December 2008. A revised program would see service entry penned in for March or April 2009.

As a consequence of this, the third impact pertains to the actual flight test program itself. Service entry in 2009 allows for a much greater window of flight tests and will not require the alleged extra resource from the 747-8F or 777-200F, the latter of which will be heading into production, testing and service entry during 2008. Furthermore, initial concerns that the 787 would not be able to undertake full cold weather tests will be allayed.

Image courtesy of andyconniecox

The revised program would facilitate full cold soak tests in either Canada or Alaska during November 2008 through January 2009 and without the need for any ancilliary or special certification dispensation that may have been required if service entry is late this year - Arctic temperatures and winds are not as cold as they could be until the northern hemisphere year draws to a close and this would be ideal for testing the 787 during this time.

Finally, if these reports turn out to be true, the ambitious target of manufacturing 109 787 Dreamliners by the end of 2009 would also have been re-evaluated. It is anticipated that the original goal of 112 Dreamliners or thereabouts will be reinstated but the time frame in which this goal will be pushed out into the first quarter of 2010.

Image courtesy of Boeing

With the 787 Dreamliner backlog standing at 817 as at the end of 2007 and with no second production line in the pipeline, the production goal will not be as bold as previously envisaged.

Engine maker Rolls Royce is equally struggling to meet the specified performance goals on the Trent 1000. The company says that improvements are constantly being worked on, a service entry delay will ensure that launch customer All Nippon Airways takes delivery of the first 787 that meets all of the performance targets it had set out to achieve.

Rolls Royce has not responded to the question pertaining to the fuel burn issue on the Trent 1000 as at time of writing.

For the interim and as exclusively revealed right here, All Nippon Airways is thus far happy with the progress being made on this revolutionary airplane.

Having had the luxury of one of its most senior Boeing 777 pilots command a 787 simulator with no prior training is evidence enough that the relationship between the Japanese launch customer and Boeing remains in good stead and high spirits.

22 comments January 11th, 2008