Exciting 12 Months Ahead
December 31st, 2007
2007 - WOW!
What a phenomenal year its been. Not just for the industry, but for planemakers on opposing sides of the Atlantic Ocean.
Final figures for both Airbus and Boeing’s net orders for 2007 will soon be made public.
Both manufacturers have been riding high on confidence this past year, winning a string of orders across their product lineups - and losing some along the way.
It’s possible that such numbers of 2,500+ firm orders in a year between the two may not be repeated for quite some time. But then, most analysts didn’t expect 2006 to surpass 2005’s order intake, much less 2007 trouncing them all.
Airbus and Boeing have won a plethora of orders between themselves, tussling back and forth for dominance in a variety of markets, both passenger and freighter.
Already, BCA Vice President Scott Carson has talked up Boeing’s desire to move forward on a new 737 family - while Airbus presses ahead with definition/design freeze of the A350XWB and seeks to organize funding for the type, its own plans for an A320 family replacement are on the backburner for a while.
With both 737 and A320 families each having a very healthy backlog, the desire to push forward on new narrowbody jets will depend largely on how quickly and efficiently engine makers can meet the stringent performance and environmental goals both Airbus, Boeing and the world’s airlines all seek.
The two key highlights for the industry during 2007 have not just been the air shows at Le Bourget and Dubai.
Image courtesy of Airbus
The milestone of significance is the first delivery of the Airbus A380-800. After a two year delay plagued by wiring woes, Singapore Airlines is currently enjoying the publicity of being the only A380 operator in the world.
Deliveries to Qantas and Emirates commence in 2008.
The other major news is on the 787 Dreamliner.
After a successful premiere on July 8, 2007, news followed with the announcement that the project would be delayed by six months.
Image courtesy of All Nippon Airways
Patrick Shanahan has since been drafted in as the new program manager for the 787 and first slight is tentatively scheduled for the end of Q1, 2008 pending success in power on in late January 2008.
First delivey to All Nippon Airways is poised for late November/early December 2008 under the revised schedule.
Without highlighting each and every order won (or lost) this year by Airbus and Boeing, both companies enjoyed the spoils of one of the most eagerly awaited fleet renewal orders so far this decade - British Airways.
While Airbus won the equally highly talked about Emirates campaign, Boeing has continued to win orders for the 787, the fastest selling airplane in history. Confidence remains high in the Dreamliner, while analysts view the target of delivering 109 787’s by the end of 2009 as an uphill task.
Where 2007 news shattered all known records for business deals, 2008 will be an equally defining year.
Airbus plans to stabilize the A380 production and seek to increase A320 family and A330 production. Its US rival will be busy with 787 and 777-200F flight tests and also starts work on the 747-8F toward the end of 2008, the first major stretched derivative of the 747 since entering service almost four decades ago.
Sandwiched in between will be the Farnborough Air Show - if it’s destined to make an appearance from its busy flight test program, it may be the first opportunity to those outside of Everett to see the 787 in the flesh.
On a personal level, meeting up with Randy Tinseth despite his busy schedule was a privilege. From his candid interview to the spirited discussions we engaged in on the industry and all things Boeing was extremely enjoyable.
Signing off on a year with astounding orderbooks, the challenge of deliverance is one that Airbus and Boeing face together on a variety of different fronts.
You can read Boeings 2007 Year in Review by clicking here.
Enjoying the wave of healthy orders is one thing, 2008 will see both rivals driving forward to ensure that they can meet customer expectations on the back of a wave of high demand.
One thing is certain…there’s an exciting twelve months ahead.
Don’t blink, otherwise you’ll miss it….
…..what are your thoughts and predictions for 2008?
Sphere: Related ContentEntry Filed under: Air Transport, Air Travel, Airbus, Airlines, Boeing
5 Comments Add your own
1. Chris C | December 31st, 2007 at 2:34 pm
No doubt that 2008 will be an exceptionally exciting year, as you quite rightly mentioned. Projections for 2008 is that order levels will return to more ‘normal’ levels, with Boeing and Airbus securing 1,000 orders between them. Further, I foresee that 787 Dreamliner orders will continue to flood in, especially from the American legacy carriers, and by 31st December 2008, the super-efficient 787 Dreamliner will have 1,100 firm orders, of which 100 of them could very easily be for the 787-10.
With the 747-400 replacement cycle in mind, I do firmly predict that the 747-8I will finally secure more follow-on orders. In fact, I believe the 747-8I will enjoy a great year, with 4 new customers (3 from Asia) stepping up and ordering. The 747-8F will continue its steady order rate as well.
Airbus will probably garner some new customers for the A380 as well, but I still see the 747 outstriping the Airbus giant by a few units in terms of sales next year.
I also see a certain African carrier, from down south, ordering new airplanes…either Boeing or Airbus!
2. Dougloid | January 1st, 2008 at 2:58 am
I’m not sure about 2008 being exciting. Interesting, perhaps. I’m not bullish on the future of commercial aviation, and I foresee a substantial capacity overhang coming.
3. Stephanie Brown | January 1st, 2008 at 4:34 pm
I wish I could share your excitement but 2007 was a disaster for the 787 program. The roll-out was a farce as the plane was far from being finished, perhaps by a year!! Many here in Seattle think it won’t fly until July based on all the problems, and no one believes certification will go smoothly either.
2008 will be the year the 787 will really show the depth of the design, production, and supply issues. I wish it wasn’t so but it is pretty clear to many of us that the program is a house of cards.
Steph
4. Chris Wallace | January 2nd, 2008 at 5:14 pm
2007 was pretty amazing. The 787 had one (if not the) best sales year of the program, and yet the A330 - the family she most directly competes with - also had it’s best sales year.
The A380 continued to show she is the only real choice (IMO) for a future passenger VLA while the 747 continued to show she is the only real choice (IMO) for a future heavy commercial freighter.
With the huge A320 orders Airbus landed, I was surprised to see Boeing was able to peddle over 700 737s, as well.
I think 2008 could be better then we’re expecting. 2500+ orders? No. But I don’t think we’ll shrink 50%, either.
The 787 will fly. It’s a new paradigm for both Boeing and aviation and such things seldom are birthed without incident. She is the future as much as the A380 was (and A350 will be), so airlines will accept the delays because they are looking at the long-term.
5. keesje | January 4th, 2008 at 1:04 am
2007 was a great years in many aspects.
In 2008 everybody wants to see the 787 - A400M flying around like they ought to. Getting it certified and into service will no doubt costs some extra energy to the folks working on it.
On top of that I expect Boeing will have to take major decision in the 300-500 seats segment they dominated for decades.
At the same I think Boeing will not be able to ignore demand for a better NB then the B737NG. SW and AA are starting to get less friendly.. $100/barrell doesn’t help..
At last decent numbers of A380 in various colors will start connecting all continents. A350XWB design will be frozen.
GE will have to take steps on the A350XWB and GE90 upgrade. Pratt and CFM have started the race replacing the CFM56 -V2500, RR and GE can’t sit back.
So I agree with you Boeing777, exiting times ahead!
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