Through The Looking Glass

As 2007 draws to a close, behind the scenes both Airbus and Boeing are engrossed by not just a healthy backlog but also with their respective A350XWB and 787 projects.

Last week, Patrick Shanahan took part in his first media briefing on the 787 program, outlining the challenges that lay ahead of power on and first flight and ultimately the goal of producing 109 airplanes by the end of 2009.

With several attempts to launch the A350 behind it, Airbus counts down the next ten months to design freeze of its newest twin engine widebody family, scheduled for October 2008.

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Both airplane makers have smashed records for orders - Airbus booked 1,204 as at the end of November 2007 according to its published figures and Boeing recorded 1,146 orders as at December 11 2007.

I would however point out, that the Boeing figure is a net figure. The figures published by Airbus are gross and do not reflect any cancellations.

Airbus thus far has around 100 cancellations that have not been acknowledged. Its net total stands at 1,177 according to Flight Global.com.

Next year will almost certainly see a marked slowdown in orders - not least because analysts are already surprised the momentum has continued for three consecutive years now.

Much of the momentum this year has been helped by surging orders from Middle Eastern based airlines like Emirates, Qatar Airways and newly formed leasing companies like DAE. Industry observers share deep concerns over such growth ambitions from the region and what that entails for planemakers should any orders not be fulfilled.

Looking forward, 2008 will not just be about the A350 and 787.

Last week, Boeing announced that assembly on the 777-200F is due to commence. This will be followed by the 747-8F toward the end of 2008.

As we peer through the looking glass into tomorrow, Boeing maintains that both of its large freighters are on track.

In a Q & A session with the Frontiers magazine, Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO, Scott Carson reaffirms this confidence:

“We didn’t look at the 787 in isolation. We carefully assessed the condition on all of our programs before we announced the slide in the 787.

We believe we have the resources to execute all these programs. It’s going to require careful management of our resources.

It’s going to require us to maintain the schedules on the 787 so people come off when they need to, and to maintain the schedule on the P-8A, so people can come off that one, because we need them to go work on the 747-8.”

Battling against currency woes, an ongoing investigation into share sales and the final negotiations of plant sales, Airbus too has a very busy year ahead of it. The A320 family this year has won orders from across the globe, just as its 737 rival has but could be left behind if, as expected, Boeing starts to discuss more publicly about the 737RS.

Orders from US legacy carriers were expected during 2007, but as at the time of writing, these have not yet materialized.

The biennial Farnborough Air Show next July could well be that springboard for the likes of Amercian Airlines, Delta Airlines and United Airlines to announce any orders.

While we can all predict one way or another how 2008 will pan out, the one certainty is that the “big two” will be busier than at any time before.

Both have high hopes vested in their portfolio and having both been burned by delays to their flagship products, neither one can ill-afford to yield more ground to the other.

5 comments December 17th, 2007