Boeing 787 Rescheduled

Boeing today announced a change to the 787 planned schedule.

The key points are thus:

• First flight planned by the end of Q1 2008
• Deliveries to commence late November 2008 or December 2008

So thats the news out of the way.

Let’s delve behind it all a little.

Image courtesy of Boeing.com

One only look across the Atlantic to see just how easily the Airbus A380-800 was undone by announcing delays amounting to 2 years. Lest we forget, that the A380 is a traditionally manufactured “run-of-the-mill” airplane. The 787 brings with it a wealth of new technology - all of which needs to be validated prior to service entry. To expect that it would be devoid of issues is both naïve and shortsighted.

Of paramount importance is ensuring that the budget stays on track and that rescheduled deliveries do not slip farther out beyond the revised service entry date of December 2008. While we’ll all have wait that little bit longer to get our first flight aboard the Dreamliner, there’s none that would disagree that such high expectation would also lead to high disappointment should the original service entry target slip.

On the bright side, having a bigger “window” of time to iron out pre-production issues will ensure not only a smoother run of deliveries after service entry, it will allow for extra experience and knowledge to be garnered with the new technologies not seen in commercial airplanes flying today.

As previously mentioned here, getting an all new, revolutionary airplane like the 787 into service on time is important.

Getting it right is far more critical.

Will interest wane in the interim? Unlikely. With 2007 already the best year for 787 sales so far, any developments that enhance the airplane will only see interest strengthen - even moreso in the absence of any direct competitor airplane.

It will be amusing, yet predictably boring to see the detractors jumping onto the “bandwagon of despair” with claims of “I told you so” in relation to “predicting delays” on the program - just exactly how many of those critics have ever produced a majority composite based airplane and delivered them on time? Hm.

Case closed.

Image courtesy of Boeingmedia.com

October 10 also saw a conference call with Scott Carson, James Bell and Jim McNerney.

Below is a brief summary of some of the points, questions and answers highlighted by investors and media.

Key points:

• Delays to first flight and EIS only - certification plan unchanged
• Boeing 787-3 & 787-9 still on schedule
• Scott Carson (SC) - “New plan achievable”
• 710 firm orders so far
• Most milestones set in September 07 have been met
• No significant impact on R & D
• Travelled/out of sequence work causing delays on Airplane 1
• Software testing extended
• Increased margins for flight tests/simulations
• 109 airplanes to be built by 2009 - 3 fewer than initial plan
• Customer focus at heart of program
• James Bell (JB) - No major earnings impact for ‘07/’08
• JB - Penalties included in cost base
• SC - Supply chain learning curve
• SC - Customers disappointed, but understand - “Voyage of discovery“
• SC - More lab time for software integration prior to first flight
• SC - 15 customers affected by delivery delay
• SC - 787 design solid
• Jim McNerney (JM) - New airplane presents new challenges
• JM - Disappointing for Boeing to announce delay
• JM - 787 is a 25-30 year success program

While the 787 may have had a change of plan, the outcome will remain unchanged - to deliver the world’s fastest selling airplane in history to airlines and passengers across the whole of the planet.

18 comments October 10th, 2007